Snow Storm #2: The Forecasts

18 forecasters...including 2 new Rookies. Moderate snow occurring early this evening and more on the way this weekend.

Station forecasts here.



Forecaster consensus for a wide-spread New England event with heavy snowfalls expected at many stations.



What/s up with that CW about 'needing' -NAO...-AO...+PNA for a significant snow storm?



Verification began last night @ midnight. Snowfall continues over the forecast area at post time and is expected to continue into Saturday afternoon. Preliminary storm-total snowfalls will be posted early Sunday with the final results available on the web site Monday evening.

Snow Storm #1: Results

Wxduff made the best synoptic-scale forecast for NEWxSFC/s inaugural snow storm. His forecast verified with 10.3 SUMSQ error points (Z-Score = -1.106).

He hit the trifecta with 1st place finishes for Total Absolute Error (9.05") and Average Absolute Error (0.57"). His 86.3% R-SQ score was second-highest of all entries.

Wxduff made perfect forecasts @ CON HYA EWR and had the lowest errors @ BGR PWM CON HYA EWR.

Congratulations Wxduff!
Wxduff wins one FREE month of StormVista/s GOLD for his efforts.

2nd Place: donsutherland1 (14.4"; -0.939)
3rd Place: dmcguriman (19.4"; -0.675)

Rookie forecaster 'weatherT' came within 0.7" of the 26.7" storm-total snowfall.

Full forecast verification and contest summary here.

Snow Storm #1: Preliminary Verification

Preliminary storm-total snowfalls from CDUS41...PNS...and CF6 bulletins for Wednesday.

No new daily records were set.

Please report errors in Remarks.
Final results and storm summary Friday evening.

Call for Forecasts: Snow Storm #2 - Winter '08 / '09

Round 2! After a slow start...we/re off the races.

Good prospects for a good dump as a second...stronger wave cruises into the forecast area on Friday for Snow Storm #2. Progs continue the idea of enhanced omega from coupled jet structure and strong...lo-level forcing courtesy warm-air advection.

Make the best forecast and you/ll win one month of FREE access to StormVista GOLD. Details here.

Deadline: Thursday...18 December...2008 @ 10:30 PM EST

Forecast element: storm-total snowfall
Verification period begins: 12:01 AM EST Friday...19 December 2008

Enter your forecast here.
Follow the link from 'Enter Storm Forecast.'

More prizes will be awarded at the end of winter for the best over-all forecaster. Details here.

As always...there/s no cost...or fee...or annoying requests for personal information to enter.

If you are making your first forecast this year...you/ll need to create an account (user name / password / valid e-mail...if you want a copy of your forecast sent to your Inbox) before entering a forecast.

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The Northeast Weather Snowfall Forecast Contest (NEWxSFC) is celebrating its 10th anniversary this winter. The Contest began during the '99/'00 season on USENET/s ne.weather news-group. It/s the longest...continuously held snowfall forecasting contest for the NE CONUS on the Internet.

The Contest is open to any and all of the following:
Amateur and professional forecasters; broadcasters with or without trained Seals; weather-biz types and wanna-bees; wish-casters...astrologers...and other class of dreamers; Pollyannas or Cassandras; registered Nostradamusts; non-violent megalomaniacs; woolly-bear caterpillars or their agents; pest detectives...NE.Wx Usenet NG or GoogleGroup regulars and lurkers...refugees from EUSWx...StormVista...Golden Snowball...and meteorologists.

What is a contest-worthy event?

Snow Storm #1: The Forecasts

Twelve forecasters including three rookies for the inaugural event. Not much of a storm...but a good warm-up for Friday/s event.

Station forecasts here.



Forecaster consensus for a northern New England event.



No support from teleconnections. Just lucky to get a barely contest-worthy storm.



Verification began last night @ midnight. Snowfall has all but ended over the forecast area at post time. Preliminary storm-total snowfalls will be posted Thursday evening with the final results available on the web site Friday evening.

Coupled Jets

Good looking signature ahead of Friday/s snow storm.

Transverse...ageostrophic circulations in the entrance region of the polar jet advect cold air into the storm from the NW. Transverse...ageostrophic circulations in the exit region of the sub-tropical jet advect moist air into the storm from the SE. Enhanced omega occurs at the intersection of these circulations.

GooFuS also throws in some additional forcing with strong...low-level...warm air advection.

Could be a memorable event.

Call for Forecasts: Snow Storm #1 - Winter '08 / '09

The season has started!

Warm-advection snowfalls expected late Tuesday night and continuing into Wednesday across northern New England. Monday evening/s NAM forecast projections have reversed course from its earlier anemic trend and now suggest storm-total snowfalls will be contest-worthy.

Make the best forecast and you/ll win one month of FREE access to StormVista GOLD. Details here

Deadline: Tuesday...16 December 2008 @ 10:59 PM EST

Forecast element: storm-total snowfall
Verification period begins: 12:01 EST Wednesday...17 December 2008

Enter your forecast here.
Follow the link from 'Enter Storm Forecast.'

More prizes will be awarded at the end of winter to the best over-all forecaster. Details here.

As always...there/s no cost...or fee...or annoying requests for personal information to enter.

New and returning forecasters will need to create an account (user name / password / valid e-mail...if you want a copy of your forecast sent to your Inbox) before entering a forecast.

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The Northeast Weather Snowfall Forecast Contest (NEWxSFC) is celebrating its 10th anniversary this winter. The Contest began during the '99/'00 season on USENET/s ne.weather news-group. It/s the longest...continuously held snowfall forecasting contest for the NE CONUS on the Internet.

The Contest is open to any and all of the following:
Amateur and professional forecasters; broadcasters with or without trained Seals; weather-biz types and wanna-bees; wish-casters...astrologers...and other class of dreamers; Pollyannas or Cassandras; registered Nostradamusts; non-violent megalomaniacs; woolly-bear caterpillars or their agents; pest detectives...NE.Wx Usenet NG or GoogleGroup regulars and lurkers...refugees from EUSWx...StormVista...Golden Snowball...and meteorologists.

What is a contesy-worthy event?

Synopti-scope® Detects Storm Signal

(updated below)

May not have too much longer to wait for this season/s inaugural snow storm.

Today/s 96-hour projection from the 12z GooFuS resolves a weak...warm advection event over northern portions of the forecast area mid-week.

The polar HIGH located north-northeast of the wave weakens slightly but holds its position as the LOW moves into the waters off Cape Cod and the Gulf of Maine.

Snowfall outlook...using 10:1 QFP...produces a 5 - 7" swath along and either side of a line from BGM - CON - BGR.

UPDATE:
Snow still seen as likely Tuesday night and Wednesday over northern New England; however...QPF has been trending lower today. Local NWS WFOs and HPC all leaning toward a nuisance-type event...all of which raises doubts about whether this storm will be contest-worthy.

GO / NO GO decision after this evening/s model runs.

First Nor'easter - Winter '08 / '09

First nor'easter to affect the forecast area this season was a dud.

Respectable storm-total snowfalls were scarce...
CAR - 4.1
BGR - 4
PWM - T
CON - 1
BTV - 9.2
ALB - 0.1
BGM - 3.6

NWP did a good job waving off this event by picking up on its predominate liquid / freezing character several earlier in the week.


Click image to animate.

Coastal Teaser #2 - DEC '08

(updated below - update II)

Healthy-looking nor'easter progged for end of the week...one that could affect about half the forecast area with this year/s inaugural contest storm. There/s a retreating HIGH as the storm gains latitude; however...cyclogenesis off the VA Capes would keep some of the cold air from escaping.

QPF @ 10:1 spits out 10"+ for ALB...CON...PWM...and BGR. Columns are currently depicted as cold enough for higher ratios...but let/s not get too far ahead of the story. Hard to tell where the cloud-tops are from GooFuS soundings b/c the moisture layers aloft are always depicted as being too deep.



Better get a snow storm in now while there/s cold air afoot b/c LR solutions have a decidedly 'mild' look to them well into Week 2.

If this scenario plays out...a call for forecasts would be made Wednesday evening with a late Thursday deadline.

UPDATE:
12/9/12z progs not all that encouraging for enough frozen precipitation at more than a handful of forecast stations nor are they in good agreement wrt timing. Yesterday/s GooFuS had the event Friday into Saturday...now it/s moved up a day.



HPC paints a 40% probability mainly over northern New England...with icing farther south across CT and MA.

GO / NO GO decision pending this evening/s model run(s).

UPDATE II:
12/10/00z NAM continues recent trend in its depiction of THU / FRI nor'easter as mainly a cold rain event over the forecast area with narrow band of IP / SN limited to northern edge of precipitation shield.

Potential appears marginal at this time for adequate conditions to warrant a call for forecasts.