Everyone/s forecast has been verified. The final results summary and verifications are available here.
Not a bad season overall. Sum-total snowfall was ~10% above normal.
Thanks to all who entered. Hope to see y'all again next year.
Graphic: Monthly 500 mb geo-height anomalies (D-J-F-M)
The last day of March marked the end of the season-total snowfall forecasting season.
The four-month snowfall totals have been tallied...the forecasts have been scored... and the final results will be posted this weekend.
The sum-total snowfall for all 25 stations was 1,010"...about 10% above normal...and just shy of last year/s 1,039" snow-total.
February/s storm track...such as it was...returned to the upper mid-west and the Great Lakes region where it was at the start of winter.
Not a single contest-worthy storm occurred...although a handful of extreme northern forecast stations observed 8 - 16" snows.
Bangor (BGR) had the best of it...racking up 160% of normal (15.5") monthly snowfall. FEB/s total-snowfall alone made up 49% of the station/s D-J-F-M average snowfall and with one month to go...BGR is 148% of normal.
Philadelphia (PHL) was the only other forecast station to observe more than normal snows for FEB...which is rather odd...considering FEB is prime-time for most mid-Atlantic stations. PHL 8.4" was 118% of normal (7.1")and 42% of an average season/s snow total.
In spite of a lackluster month...Bridgeport(BDR)...Boston (BOS) and Concord (CON) stand @ 136%...135%...and 125% of normal snowfall for the D-J-F-M period.
Other stations above normal currently with one month left to go:
PVD (116%)
BTV (115%)
PWM (110%)
ORH (104%)
Caribou (CAR) is all but normal (98%) and will easily come in slightly above by 31 MAR. In light of the recent MAR 2 snows...most other stations have a good chance of reaching season-normal.
All but certain losers appear to be MDT...BWI...IAD...DCA...SBY...RIC...and ORF.
Green => Top 25%
Red => Bottom 25%
WFO Monthly/Daily Climate Data
NCDC Period-of-Record Snowfall Climatology
After eight snow storms... donsutherland1 maintains his near season-long and commanding lead... shanabe and Donald Rosenfeld hold onto second and third...respectively.
Several forecasters ranked in previous Interim Standings had not entered at least six forecasts and were not eligible for this summary under the ‘two-thirds’ rule.
Full interim forecaster error statistics table and charts here.
Forecaster storm summary data here.
SUMSQ errors for each contest snow storm are normalized with a 'Z-score'...then averaged to compute the standings. Forecasters who have entered at least 2/3 of all snow storm contests are included in the standings.
If a forecaster has participated in more than two-thirds of all snow storm contests...then Z-scores from two-thirds of their best forecasts are used to calculate Interim and Final standings. Same idea as dropping the lowest quiz score before the final grade is computed.
Previous Interim Standings here.
NEWxSFC Chief forecaster donsutherland1 made the best synoptic-scale snowfall forecast for Snow Storm #8...where all 27 stations were in play.
His SUMSQ error of 106" (Z-Score -0.945) was 64% better than the average error of 293". Donsutherland1 finished in second place for 'Total Absolute Error' (42.5") and Average Absolute Error' (1.57"). His STP forecast of 174.4" was within 5% of the observed 169.9" STP.
Donsutherland1 had the lowest station errors @ HYA...ORH...ABE... MDT...PHL...and DCA.
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