Winter '10 / '11 - Signs of A Warming Stratosphere

Extended-range progs from the ECMWF continue to suggest a warming event may be in the offing come mid-DEC...foretelling a cold start to 2011 as the bottom of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) falls out.

Note the forecast of two distinct hi-latitude cyclonic circulation centers at 100 mb...which could be in the process of ingesting the hi-amplitude tropospheric ridges positioned currently over the north Atlantic and the Bering Sea.

Winter '10 / '11 - Season-total Snowfall Forecast Contest - Call for Forecasts



Vermont - Winter 1933

Forecast the season-total snowfall for 25 stations from RDU to CAR.

Deadline: WED...15-DEC-10 @ 11:59 PM EST

Visit the Contest's website to enter your forecast.

Follow the link from 'Enter Season-total Forecast.'

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As always...there are NO costs...fees...or annoying requests for personal information to enter.

NE.Wx's annual ‘Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest is the absolute best...biggest...and probably ONLY chance to be recognized for your long-range forecasting acumen; a recognition you so richly deserve.

Not only that...but if you actually win the Contest...you get a complementary copy of "New England Weather...New England Climate" by Gregory Zielinski and Barry Keim delivered right to your front door.

What other fookin'incentive could you possibly want to enter the Contest?
How about F-R-E-E shipping?

DONE!
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Forecast element: sum-total season snowfall @ each station
Forecast period: 01-DEC-10 through 31-MAR-11
Verification: NWS preliminary climate reports (CLM or F6)
Error statistic: total absolute error [Σ abs(forecast - observed)]

Entry deadline: WED...15-DEC-10 @ 11:59 PM EST
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The reigning NE.Wx ‘Season-Total’ Snowfall Forecasting Champ-een is Herb @ MAWS.
Last year's 'Season-total' forecast summary...verification...and final results ==> here.
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The Contest...as always...is open to any and all of the following:
Amateur and professional forecasters; broadcasters with or without trained Seals; weather-biz types and wanna-bees; wish-casters...astro-meteorologists...and other classes of dreamers; Pollyannas or Cassandras; registered Nostradamusians; non-violent megalomaniacs; woolly-bear caterpillars or their agents; pest detectives...NE.Wx Usenet NG or GoogleGroup regulars or lurkers...refugees from EUSWx...StormVista...Golden Snowball...AmericanWx...or USWxForums...including energy sectarians and meteorologists.

Trolls...goats...hat3-lsiters...and psests need not apply.

Winter '10 / '11 - NEWxSFC Status

Long Island...NY 02-FEB-1934

NEWxSFC began in 1999 on USENET's ne.weather newsgroup. USENET was the only place where wx enthusiasts from far and wide could gather to monger model output...share observations...opinions...forecasts...and outlooks. Nowadays...multiple on-line forums with greatly enhanced capabilities flourish which has dispersed the population of people who might want to participate in an organized...winter-long snowfall forecasting contest but just don't know there is such a event.

Letting people know about a contest-worthy snowstorm has become a lengthy...time-consuming affair. The NEWxSFC takes a lot of time to administer...especially in the run-up to a snowstorm. Over 700 e-mail 'Call for Forecasts' announcements...sent 49 at a time every 16 minutes so as not to be flagged as spam...have gone out for prior to the late evening deadline each event. Invitations are sent to past and present Contest participants as well as weather enthusiasts in the M-A and NE. There has been a historically low response rate from these mass mailings.

'Call for Forecasts' announcements have also been made on the NEWxSFC web blog...web site...NE_WX GoogleGroup...StormVista...and at one time...The Golden Snowball. The 'Call for Forecasts'...'The Forecasts'...'Preliminary Verification'...and 'Final Results' posts on StormVista generated very few replies and a dozen or so views. Veteran NEWxSFC forecasters have made 'Call for Forecasts' announcements on other wx boards...such as EasternUSWx...with little effect. I appreciate their efforts and have been puzzled by how little interest was generated...given how much interest there is when winter wx threatens the M-A and NE.

Contest participation rates have remained steady over the years. Most events attract 8 - 15 forecasters. Most seasons see 8 - 10 forecasters eligible for ranking in the 'Final Standings.' Some veteran forecasters have understandably dropped out and few new forecasters stick around.

This winter would be Contest’s 12th season. NEWxSFC is the longest continuously held snowfall-forecasting contest on the World Wide Web. It has evolved over the years from a time when entries were harvested individually from ne.weather newsgroup and manually entered into a spreadsheet to an on-line interactive... password-protected Access database. NEWxSFC was cited in a paper delivered at the 90th Annual AMS Meeting [26th Conference on Interactive Information and Processing Systems (IIPS) for Meteorology, Oceanography, and Hydrology (http://ams.confex.com/ams/pdfpapers/164417.pdf)] JAN-10 in Atlanta…GA.

I like the way NEWxSFC has developed and matured over the years but I am no longer interested or able to run the Contest as it’s been run in the past. I had decided to the pull the plug and walk away but came to find out…I simply couldn’t do it.

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NEWxSFC:  Winter ’10 / ‘11

Greatly scaled-back Contests will be held this winter.

There will be a 'Season-total' contest. 'Call for Forecasts' are usually made 01-NOV with a 30-NOV deadline. This year...the 'Call for Forecasts' goes out today (01-DEC) with an 11:59 PM EST 15-DEC deadline. Will likely send an e-mail announcement to last year's participants before week's end. Please hold off entering your forecast until early next week (after 12-DEC) to give me some time to do a little housekeeping and to make sure everything still works.

All past account information (User ID and passwords) for the ‘Season-total’ and ‘Regular’ season Contests will be deleted as was the practice in the past. Forecasters will need to create a separate account for each Contest. User ID and Password can be the same for each account…if so desired.

The ‘Regular’ season contest will kick off when the first contest-worthy storm presents itself.

All Contest related postings...such as 'Call for Forecasts'...'The Forecasts'...'Preliminary Verification'...and 'Final Results'...such as they are...will be made on the web log and the Contest's main web site only. 'Call for Forecasts' e-mail announcements will be sent by request only (send requests to: newx (at) newx-forecasts (dot) com).

One easy way to keep abreast of Contest status and announcements would be to subscribe to the web blog via an RSS feed.

Please feel free to spread the word in other forums and offer suggestions in Comments.

Winter '10 / '11 - NEWxSFC Status

Undecided.

Discuss.

Winter '09 / '10 - Interim Standings - 3

After seven contest-worthy snow storms...the third interim standings have been posted here.

Under the 'Two-thirds' Rule...forecasters who/ve made at least five forecasts were included in the Interim Standings.

Image:  Brookline...MA 1952

Winter '09 / '10 - Snow Storm #7 - Final Results

NEWxSFC Chief forecaster donsutherland1 has won this season/s 7th snowfall forecast contest.

SUMSQ error: 132.3"
Z-score: -1.129

Improvement over the average error: 78% (595")

Lowest station errors @BTV and ABE

His forecast placed 1st in all categiories - storm-total precipitation...total absolute error...average absolute error...and R-SQ

Congratulations donsutherland1!

2nd Place: weatherT (299.1"; -0.720)
3rd Place: TQ (342.6"; -0.616)
Honorable Mention: millersville_bauers (382.4"; -0.518)

Full forecast verification...storm summary...and final results at the Contest web site.

Winter '09 / '10 - Snow Storm #7 - Preliminary Verification

Preliminary storm-total snowfalls for Thursday and Friday from CDUS41 and METARs.

No climate or spotter reports for SBY.  METARs suggest trace amount.
Nine new daily records.

THU...25-FEB-10
BGM - 13.9" (4.2"; 1966)
ABE - 9.8" (3.2"; 1966)
ACY - 4.6" (1.6"; 1974)
EWR - 6.7" (2.4"; 2005)

FRI....26-FEB-10
BDR - 4.9" (3"; 2007)
ISP - 8.9" (2.9"; 1991)
JFK - 8.5" (6.4"; 1991)
ACY - 4.1" (2.8"; 1993)
EWR - 8.2" (4"; 1991)

Please report errors and a link to the correct data in Comments.

Final results and storm summary Sunday evening.

Winter '09 / '10 - Snow Storm #7 - The Forecasts

Forecaster Summary
Forecasts in the table below are ranked by storm total precipitation (STP) in ascending order. Blue (red) STP values are below (above) the 25th (75th) percentile of all forecast STPs.

Average STP (126.5") per average number of stations (24) forecast: 5.3".

Twelve entries...including three Rookies...one Intern...and eight senior forecasters...issued 288 station forecasts for the winter/s 7th contest snow storm.

Everyone's station forecasts have been posted on the Contest's web site.

Consensus for a heavy-snow event over SE NY and eastern PA.

Arctic Oscillation (AO) remains stuck well below zero. North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) has climbed to near-zero. Pacific-North American (PNA) has collapsed indicating a flattening flow across NOAM.

Rapidly deepening surface LOW off the HSE heading for NY Harbor. Storm b/comes trapped below strong HIGH pressure parked over Canada/s maritime provinces.

Verification period ends 11:59 PM EST...FRI 26-FEB-10.
Preliminary storm-total snowfall amounts will be posted the evening of SAT 27-FEB-10.

Winter '09 / '10 - Snow Storm #7 - Raw Forecasts

Raw forecasts here.

All forecasts will be posted to the Contest/s home page and a summary on the web blog Thursday evening.

Winter '09 / '10 - Snow Storm #7 - Call for Forecasts

Two-day event depicted on short and medium range models resulting from cyclogenesis off the VA / NC coast and the surface LOW/s retrograding motion over NJ and eastern PA blocked from lifting-out by HIGH pressure parked over Canada's Maritime Provinces.

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Deadline: 10:30 PM EST WED...24-FEB-10

Forecast element: storm-total snowfall
Verification begins: 12:01 AM EST THU...25-FEB-10
Verification ends:  11:59 PM EST...FRI 26-FEB 10

Enter your forecast at the Contest web site here.
Follow the link from 'Enter Storm Forecast.'

As always...there/s no cost...or fee...or annoying requests for personal information to enter. Just a fun exercise to see who can make the best synoptic-scale snowfall forecast.

If you are issuing your first forecast this year...or you entered the 'season-total' forecast contest...you/ll need to create an account (user name / password / valid e-mail...if you want a copy of your forecast sent to your Inbox).

Image:
Newark...NJ  27-DEC-47