Winter '12 / '13 - Storm #3: Blizzard?

BOS
26-FEB-69

Sorry folks.
It just didn/t happen this go'round.

Despite the news media/s insatiable appetite for sensationalism...heavy snowfall does not a blizzard make.

Blizzard defined.

The only station coming even close to blizzard conditions was Islip airport on Long Island...NY but alas...they came up ~78" short on the 180" duration requirement.

The three-hour duration clock starts at 0208z (9:08 PM EST) when the visibilily fall below 1/4 SM at KISP and the wind begins to honk above 30 knots.

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METAR KISP 090208Z 36022G35KT 1/8SM R06/1200V1600FT +SN FZFG VV003 M02/M03 A2952

METAR KISP 090256Z 35019G32KT 1/16SM R06/1000V1200FT +SN FZFG VV002 M02/M03 A2953

METAR KISP 090350Z 36018G28KT 1/8SM R06/1600V2600FT +SN FZFG VV003 M03/M04

METAR KISP 090356Z COR 34020KT 1/8SM R06/2000V2800FT +SN FZFG VV003 M03/M04

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Three-hour duration clock stops at 0350z (10:50 PM EST).  The total elapsed time of a blizzard/s restricted visibility and wind speed criteria is 1' 42" which is 1' 18" short of the three-hour duration requirement.

Winter '12 / '13 - Storm #3: The Forecasts!

15 forecasters
10 Senior
1 Journeyman
1 Intern
3 Rookies...including 1 'first-timer'.  Welcome flame_boy!

Entries ranked by STP.
336 station forecasts.

Consensus heavy snowfall axis from CAR-BGR-PWM-BOS-HYA-PVD-ISP-JFK-EWR-BGM-ALB-BTV-CAR.  At least 20" expected at PWM...CON...BOS...ORH...and PVD.  Biggest losers in the M-A this go'round.



NAO sitting it out...again.

Everyone/s station-by-station forecast has been posted on the Contest/s web site.

Winter '12 / '13 - Storm #3: Snow Cover

Winter '12 / '13 - Storm #3: RAW Forecasts

Raw forecasts here.

Chances are...the posting of forecasts and forecast summary on the Contest/s web page and web log will be delayed until Saturday.

Winter '12 / '13 - PD III ?

Winter '12 / '13 - Storm #3: Call for Forecasts!

Route 128
Danvers...MA
10-FEB-69

The last 'Call for Forecasts' came 41 days ago.  What a crappy winter!

NWP offering up another odd Miller A / B hybrid with explosive development along the SNE coast...near-blizzard conditions...and a track over the famed' benchmark' at 40°N / 70°W.

This go-round it's an actual real-live snowstorm and not some poser LOW with a thin strip of snow on the northwestern edge of the precipitation shield.

The forecast contest for Storm #3 may be canceled prior to deadline if NWP indicates a fizzling event altho that seems unlikely.

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Forecast element: storm-total snowfall
Deadline for entries: 10:30 PM EST THU...07-FEB-13

Verification period begins: 12:01 AM FRI...08-FEB-13
Verification period ends:  when the snow stops*

Enter your forecast at the Contest's home page here.
Follow the link from 'Enter Storm Forecast.'

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As always...there/s no cost...or fee...or advertising...or annoying requests for personal information to enter a forecast. It's just a fun exercise for winter wx enthusiasts to see who can make the best synoptic-scale snowfall forecast.

If you are issuing your first forecast this winter...or you entered the 'season-total' forecast contest...you/ll need to create an account (user name / password / valid e-mail...if you want a copy of your forecast sent to your Inbox).

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Want to be notified via e-mail when a 'Call for Forecasts' is issued?
Send your request to 'newx at newx-forecasts dot com'.

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* Current NWP suggests accumulating snows coming to an end Saturday evening.
Verification period may end 11:59 PM SAT...09-FEB-13 even if light snowfall is occurring over a station or two.  No reason to hold up the preliminary verification report to count 12 extra snowflakes somewhere.

Winter '12 / '13 - 12th Annual 'Season-Total' Forecast Contest: DEC / JAN Totals

DEC/s snowfall totals got the season off to a promising start with nine stations measuring above normal snowfall and 103% above normal for the entire forecast area where northern stations got the best of it.  Total departure was +5.7".



All stations measured below normal snowfall totals in JAN for a total departure of -139.5".  Three southern stations made it into the Top Ten.

As of the end of JAN...season-total snowfall over the entire forecast area was 28% below normal.

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GREEN - 75th percentile and above
RED - 25th percentile and below

Winter '12 / '13 - VCP32: Late for Work

Winter '12 / '13 - Storm #3: MR Teaser

Long-range progs continue to offer a contest-worthy storm toward week's end for the northern M-A and SNE.



UL:  500 mb Z and PMSL
UR:  500 mb Z and vorticity
LL:  PMSL and precipitation type
LR:  PMSL and 2m Td

Today/s 108-hour solutions from the 12z GFS suggest initial forcing from-low level warm air advection followed by a modest measure of mid-level intensification as the system approaches the SNE coast.

Should this scenario come to pass...
Call for Forecasts:  Wed evening...23-JAN-13
Deadline:  10:30 PM EST Thu...24-JAN-13

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Images courtesy Meteocentre.com

Winter '12 / '13 - Arctic Oscillation: Meteorological Winter/s Mid-point

Not sure what if anything it means but here's the state of the AO at the mid-point of meteorological winter during its 64 year period-of-record.



Blue line is the observed AO on 15-JAN.

Red line is a 9-point binomial filter.  The filter removes noise from the signal to highlight trends.

Yellow line is an 11-year moving average.

The 15-JAN-13 AO (-0.646) ranks 26th (41th percentile).

Same idea for AO/s sister...the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO).

The 15-JAN-13 NAO (0.011) ranks 26th (41th percentile).

Three things to note...
1)  The highly variable AO index on D+45 compared to its sister index...then NAO.
2)  The 11-year moving average between 1960 and1980 is negative...followed by a 30-year period were the average is above zero.
3)  This season/s mid-winter AO and NAO values are slightly below normal for all mid-winter values during the period-of-record (Z = -0.207 and Z = -0.045, respectively).