CONTEST STATUS - Updated: MON ... 19-MAR-18 @ 7:20 PM EDT

Winter '17 / '18 - Snowfall Forecast Contests

19th Annual 'Regular Season'
- Interim Standings ... as of Snow Storm #6 here
- Forecaster Storm Stats ... as of Snow Storm #7 here

- Snow Storm #8
Call for Forecasts!
Deadline: 10:30 PM EDT ... TUE ... 20-MAR-18
Details here

- Snow Storm #7: 12-MAR-18
FINAL Results here
Winning forecast issued by: iralibov

17th Annual 'Season-total'
Deadline for entries has passed
Forecasters' summary here

Winter '16 / '17 - Snowfall Forecast Contests
18th Annual 'Regular Season'
FINAL results here

16th Annual 'Season-total'
FINAL results here

Monday, January 21, 2013

Winter '12 / '13 - Arctic Oscillation: Meteorological Winter/s Mid-point

Not sure what if anything it means but here's the state of the AO at the mid-point of meteorological winter during its 64 year period-of-record.

Blue line is the observed AO on 15-JAN.

Red line is a 9-point binomial filter.  The filter removes noise from the signal to highlight trends.
Yellow line is an 11-year moving average.

The 15-JAN-13 AO (-0.646) ranks 26th (41th percentile).

Same idea for AO/s sister...the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO).
The 15-JAN-13 NAO (0.011) ranks 26th (41th percentile).

Three things to note...
1)  The highly variable AO index on D+45 compared to its sister index...then NAO.
2)  The 11-year moving average between 1960 and1980 is negative...followed by a 30-year period were the average is above zero.
3)  This season/s mid-winter AO and NAO values are slightly below normal for all mid-winter values during the period-of-record (Z = -0.207 and Z = -0.045, respectively).

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