Winter '12 / '13 - Storm #7: Call for Forecasts

UPDATE
Call for Forecasts - CANCELLED

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(Originally posted 3/22/13 @ 3:08 PM EDT)

SW Harbor...ME
28-JAN-40

Today/s 12z NAM and GEM-GLB argue for a contest-worthy storm Sunday evening.
GFS not so much.

Would hate to miss a late season opportunity...especially for the snow starved M-A...so a call goes out for forecasts.

The contest for Storm #7 may be canceled prior to deadline if NWP indicates a fizzling event.

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Forecast element: storm-total snowfall
Deadline for entries: 10:30 PM EDT SAT...23-MAR-13

Verification period begins: 12:01 AM EDT SUN...24-MAR-13
Verification period ends: when the snow stops.

Enter your forecast at the Contest's home page here.
Follow the link from 'Enter Storm Forecast.'

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As always...there/s no cost...or fee...or advertising...or annoying requests for personal information to enter a forecast. It's just a fun exercise for winter wx enthusiasts to see who can make the best synoptic-scale snowfall forecast.

If you are issuing your first forecast this winter...or you entered the 'season-total' forecast contest...you/ll need to create an account (user name / password / valid e-mail...if you want a copy of your forecast sent to your Inbox).

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Want to be notified via e-mail when the 'Call for Forecast' is issued?
Send requests to 'newx at newx-forecasts dot com'.

Winter '12 / '13 - Interim Standings 4

Under the ‘two-thirds’ rule…forecasters who have entered at least four forecasts are included in this season/s third Interim Standings.

SUMSQ errors for each contest storm are normalized with a 'Z-score'...then averaged...to compute the standings.  Lower (higher) average Z-scores indicate more (less) skillful forecasts.

If a forecaster has participated in more than two-thirds of all contests...then Z-scores from their 'best two-thirds' forecasts are used to calculate Interim and Final standings. More or less the same idea as dropping the lowest quiz score(s) before the final grade is computed.

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Complete table of Interim stats by Forecaster at the Contest/s web site here.
Forecaster summary storm data set here.

Winter '12 / '13 - Storm #6: Final Results

Composite Reflectivity
Mid-afternoon 19-MAR-13

1st - Donald Rosenfeld
SUMSQ:	47.02
SUMSQ Z:	-0.609
STP:	10.90	(6)
TAE:	23.70	(1)
AAE:	0.99	(1)
2nd - iralibov
SUMSQ:	55.26
SUMSQ Z:	-0.537
STP:	8.80	(4)
TAE:	28.50	(3)
AAE:	1.14	(3)
3rd - donsutherland1
SUMSQ:	56.68
SUMSQ Z:	-0.524
STP:	7.30	(1)
TAE:	29.70	(4)
AAE:	1.24	(5)
HM - snowman
SUMSQ:	58.96
SUMSQ Z:	-0.504
STP:	14.40	(8)
TAE:	26.60	(2)
AAE:	1.06	(2)

SUMSQ: sum of square errors

STP: storm-total precipitation error

TAE: total absolute error
AAE: average absolute error
(number):  category rank

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Full forecast verification and summary for Storm #6 here.

Winter '12 / '13 - Storm #6: Preliminary Verification

Preliminary storm-total snowfalls for Monday through Wednesday from CDUS41...CXUS51...and PNS bulletins.

Five new daily records.

TUE....19-MAR-13
CON - 11" (3.9"; 1971)
BTV - 8.9" (2.3"; 1928)
PWM - 8.7" (4.7"; 1971)
BGR - 7.7" (5"; 1987)
ORH - 7.7" (7"; 1956)

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Please report any errors and drop a link to the correct data in Comments.

The Preliminary Verifications are usually posted ~24 hours before the forecasts are verified and final results are posted.  Circumstances prevent me from closing out Contest #6 tomorrow evening; therefore...the verified forecasts and final results will posted late this evening.

The alternative is to wait until Saturday evening.
I would rather NEWxSFC Forecasters not wait that long to find out how well their forecasts verified.

Winter '12 / '13 - Storm #6: The Forecasts

Rookie 2
Intern 1
Journey 1
Senior 9
TOT 13

Forecasts are ranked by STP.
309 station forecasts.

RED - 75th percentile and above
BLUE - 25th percentile and below

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Heavy snow axis from BTV-CAR-BGR-PWM-CON-ORH-BGM-ALB-BTV.

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AO once again in the tank.
NAO with one toe in the water.
PNA MIA.

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Everyone/s station-by-station forecast has been posted on the Contest/s web site.

Winter '12 / '13 - Storm #6: RAW Forecasts

RAW forecasts here.

Winter '12 / '13 - 12th Annual 'Season-Total' Forecast Contest: FEB Totals

FEB/s snowfall totals were smokin'hot with 12 stations above normal.
New monthly record set at BDR.

As of the end of FEB...season-total snowfall to date (D-J-F) over the entire forecast area was 4% above normal.

DEC and JAN monthly totals here.

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GREEN - 75th percentile and above

RED - 25th percentile and below

Winter '12 / '13 - Storm #6: Call for Forecasts

Notwithstanding the Snowmen Prophets of Doom...another contest-worthy storm may just be in the making before this winter comes to a close.

Main event awaits Tuesday; however...call is going out early to capture snows across the M-A.

The contest for Storm #6 may be canceled prior to deadline if NWP indicates a fizzling event.

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Forecast element: storm-total snowfall
Deadline for entries: 10:30 PM EDT SUN...17-MAR-13

Verification period begins: 12:01 AM EDT MON...18-MAR-13
Verification period ends: when the snow stops.

Enter your forecast at the Contest's home page here.
Follow the link from 'Enter Storm Forecast.'

---
As always...there/s no cost...or fee...or advertising...or annoying requests for personal information to enter a forecast. It's just a fun exercise for winter wx enthusiasts to see who can make the best synoptic-scale snowfall forecast.

If you are issuing your first forecast this winter...or you entered the 'season-total' forecast contest...you/ll need to create an account (user name / password / valid e-mail...if you want a copy of your forecast sent to your Inbox).

---
Want to be notified via e-mail when the 'Call for Forecast' is issued?
Send requests to 'newx at newx-forecasts dot com'.

Winter '12 / '13 - VCP32: Snowmen Prophets of Doom

Winter '12 / '13 - Interim Standings 3

Under the ‘two-thirds’ rule…forecasters who have entered at least four forecasts are included in this season/s third Interim Standings.

SUMSQ errors for each contest storm are normalized with a 'Z-score'...then averaged...to compute the standings.  Lower (higher) average Z-scores indicate more (less) skillful forecasts.

If a forecaster has participated in more than two-thirds of all contests...then Z-scores from their 'best two-thirds' forecasts are used to calculate Interim and Final standings. More or less the same idea as dropping the lowest quiz score(s) before the final grade is computed.

---
Complete table of Interim stats by Forecaster at the Contest/s web site here.
Forecaster summary storm data set here.