Winter '13 / '14 - Storm #4: Preliminary Verification

Preliminary storm-total snowfalls for WED and THU from CDUS41...CXUS51...and PNS bulletins.

Good coverage and reporting.

BDL SLR contaminated by FZRA

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Two new daily records:

WED...05-FEB-14

BOS - 13.2" (3"; 1976)

BTV - 9.3" (7.9"; 1968)

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Please report any errors in Comments along with a link to the correct data.

Final results SAT evening before 9 PM EST

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Winter '13 / '14 - Storm #4: The Forecasts

Rookies  1
Journeyman  1
Senior  11
TOT 13

266 station forecasts

Forecasts are ranked by their storm-total precipitation (STP).
BLUE ==> 25th percentile.
RED ==> 75th percentile.
STP cells without color are between the 25th and 75th percentile

Heavy snowfall (+6") consensus for an interior NE event with lollypops expected at CON and ALB.

Teleconnections upside down.

Everyone/s station-by-station forecast at the Contest/s web site.

Winter '13 / '14 - Storm #4: RAW Forecasts

Here.

Winter '13 / '14 - Storm #4: Call for Forecasts

LGA
10-FEB-1969

Forecast element: storm-total snowfall
Deadline for entries:  10:30 PM EST TUE...04-FEB-14
Verification begins:  12:01 AM EST WED...05-FEB-14
Verification ends:  when the snow stops falling

Enter your forecast at the Contest's home page here.

Follow the link from 'Enter Storm Forecast.'

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As always...there/s no cost...or fee...or advertising...or annoying requests for personal information to enter a forecast. It's just a fun exercise for winter wx enthusiasts to see who can make the best synoptic-scale snowfall forecast.

If you are issuing your first forecast this winter...or you entered the 'season-total' forecast contest...you/ll need to create an account (user name / password / valid e-mail...if you want a copy of your forecast sent to your Inbox).

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Want to be notified via e-mail when the 'Call for Forecast' is issued?
Send requests to 'newx at newx-forecasts dot com'.

Winter '13 / '14 - Coastal Teaser #4

Promising contest-worthy event mid-week for northern forecast stations.

If progs continue their current trends...
A 'Call for Forecasts' would be issued MON...03-FEB-14.
Deadline for entries:  10:30 PM EST TUE...04-FEB-14

Winter '13 / '14 - Storm #3: Final Results

SUMSQ: sum of square errors

STP: storm-total precipitation error

TAE: total absolute error

AAE: average absolute error (number): category rank

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Full forecast verification and summary for Storm #3 here.

Winter '13 / '14 - Storm #3: Preliminary Verification

Preliminary storm-total snowfalls for Tuesday and Wednesday from CDUS41...CXUS51...and PNS bulletins.  Good coverage and reporting.

SBY 3" STP reported in PNSAKQ.

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Ten new daily records.

TUE...21-JAN-14
PHL - 13.5" (3.4"; 1917)
EWR - 10" (4.5"; 2011)
ISP - 9.2" (5"; 2000)
IAD - 8.5" (3.2"; 2001)
JFK - 6.8" (5.8"; 2001)
BWI - 5.1" (2"; 1982)
DCA - 3.8" (3.5"; 1982)
ACY - 2.2" (1.8"; 1982)
RIC - 2" (1.8"; 1918)
ORF - 2" (1.4"; 1994)

Please report any errors in Comments along with a link to the correct data.

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Final results delayed until Saturday evening.

Winter '13 / '14 - Storm #3: The Forecasts

15 forecasters
Rookies:  1 (Welcome BTRWx!)
Interns:  2
Journeymen:  1
Senior:  11

382 station forecasts.

Forecasts are ranked by their storm-total precipitation (STP).
BLUE ==> 25th percentile.
RED ==> 75th percentile.
STP cells without color are between the 25th and 75th percentile.

Heavy snowfall (+6") consensus for a mid-Atlantic and coastal NE event with the lollypop expected at HYA.

The AO and PNA teleconnections again proving their importance.

Flat lined NAO MIA again.

Everyone/s station-by-station forecast at the Contest/s web site.

Winter '13 / '14 - Storm #3: RAW Forecasts

Here

Winter '13 / '14 - Storm #3: Call for Forecasts

DC Knickerbocker Storm
27-JAN-22

UPDATE: corrected dates for entry deadline and start of verification period.

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Big changes in the overnight progs present opportunity for another contest and a short deadline for entries.

Even though QPF is somewhat skimpy, Arctic air will provide ideal environment for high-fluff factor and contest-worthy snows.

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Forecast element: storm-total snowfall
Deadline for entries:  10:30 PM EST MON...20-JAN-14
Verification begins:  12:01 AM EST TUE...21-JAN-14
Verification ends:  when the snow stops falling

Enter your forecast at the Contest's home page here.
Follow the link from 'Enter Storm Forecast.'

---
As always...there/s no cost...or fee...or advertising...or annoying requests for personal information to enter a forecast.  It's just a fun exercise for winter wx enthusiasts to see who can make the best synoptic-scale snowfall forecast.

If you are issuing your first forecast this winter...or you entered the 'season-total' forecast contest...you/ll need to create an account (user name / password / valid e-mail...if you want a copy of your forecast sent to your Inbox).

---
Want to be notified via e-mail when the 'Call for Forecast' is issued?
Send requests to 'newx at newx-forecasts dot com'.