Winter '13 / '14 - 13th Annual 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest: MAR Totals

GREEN - 75th percentile and above
RED - 25th percentile and below

Winter '13 / '14 - 13th Annual 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest: FEB Totals

GREEN - 75th percentile and above

RED - 25th percentile and below

Winter '13 / '14 - Storm #8: FINAL Results

SUMSQ: sum of square errors
STP: storm-total precipitation error
TAE: total absolute error
AAE: average absolute error
(number): category rank

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Full forecast verification and summary for Storm #8 at the Contest/s web site here.

Winter '13 / '14 - Storm #8: Preliminary Verification

UPDATE 2:
Delayed issuance of SBY climate bulletins carried 5" STP coinciding with local media report in PNSAKQ.  CLI STP at odds with METAR data; however...it is what it is.

UPDATE @ 3:42 PM 
Re-analysis of SBY 6-group and P-group data indicates 0.39" liquid and 3.9" STP at 10:1 SN:H2O.

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Original post @ 10:01 AM
Preliminary storm-total snowfalls for Sunday and Monday from CDUS41 and CXUS51.

Good coverage and reporting.

SBY/s 1.8" STP estimated from the METAR 6-group at 10:1 SN:H2O.

Six new daily records
SUN...16-MAR-14
IAD - 6.6" (1.6"; 1978)
ACY - 2.2" (1.7"; 1978)

MON...17-MAR-14
PHL - 4.7" (3.5"; 1892)
IAD - 4.5" (1.9"; 1965)
DCA - 3.9" (1.9"; 1965)
ACY - 3.7" (1.6"; 1965)

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Please report any errors in Comments along with a link to the correct data.
Final results Wednesday evening.

Winter '13 / '14 - Storm #7: FINAL Results

SUMSQ: sum of square errors
STP: storm-total precipitation error
TAE: total absolute error
AAE: average absolute error
(number): category rank

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Full forecast verification and summary for Storm #7 at the Contest/s web site here.

Winter '13 / '14 - Storm #8: The Forecasts!

Rookie 0
Intern 1
Journey 1
Senior 6
TOT 8

101 station forecasts.

Forecasts are ranked by their storm-total precipitation (STP).
BLUE ==> 25th percentile.
RED ==> 75th percentile.
STP cells without color are between the 25th and 75th percentile.

Heaviest snowfall (+4") consensus across DC-BATLO metro area extending onto the Delmarva with the lollypop expected at IAD.  Another consensus about whether this was a contest-worthy event!

<still speechless>

Everyone/s station-by-station forecast at the Contest/s web site.

Winter '13 / '14 - Storm #8: RAW Forecasts

Here

Winter '13 / '14 - Storm #7: Preliminary Verification

Preliminary storm-total snowfalls for Wednesday and Thursday from CDUS41...CXUS51...and PNS bulletins.  Good coverage and reporting.

HYA/s 0.25" STP estimated from vicinity reports and KHYA METARs.

Two new daily records
WED:
BTV - 15.2" (7.2"; 1959)

THU:
CAR - 9.4" (8.7"; 1953)

Many SLRs contaminated by mixed precipitation.

00z 13-MAR-14

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Please report any errors in Comments along with a link to the correct data.

Final results Sunday evening.

Great Blizzard of 1888: 13-MAR-1888

13-MAR-1888

10 PM M-A temps in the skinny teens.
Zero in Marquette...MI

Winter '13 / '14 - Storm #8: Call for Forecasts

Great Blizzard of 1888

UPDATE 2:
Specified end of verification period as 11:59 PM EDT MON 17-MAR-14

UPDATE:
SAT/s 12z GFS points to a contest-worthy event!

Wx GO!

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Mid-Atlantic appears to be in line for a relatively late-season snowfall featuring the interaction between cold air damming and weak waves of LOW pressure migrating NE along an arctic frontal boundary.

Contest for Storm #8 may be cancelled prior to the deadline if fewer than six stations are likely to observe at least a 4" snowfall.

Please note the 'Call for Forecasts' e-mails and updates to the Contest/s web site will be delayed a few hours this evening.

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Forecast element: storm-total snowfall

Deadline for entries:  10:30 PM EDT...SAT...15-MAR-14

Verification period begins:  12:01 AM EDT SUN...16-MAR-14

Verification period ends:  11:59 PM EDT MON...17-MAR-14

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Enter your forecast at the Contest's home page here.
Follow the link from 'Enter Storm Forecast.'

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As always...there/s no cost...or fee...or advertising...or annoying requests for personal information to enter a forecast.  It's just a fun exercise for winter wx enthusiasts to see who can make the best synoptic-scale snowfall forecast.

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If you are issuing your first forecast this winter...or you entered the 'season-total' forecast contest...you/ll need to create an account (user name / password / valid e-mail...if you want a copy of your forecast sent to your Inbox).