Saturday, February 07, 2015
Thursday, February 05, 2015
Winter '14 / '15 - Storm #4: Call for Forecasts!
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| Rte. 128 in Danvers...MA 10-FEB-69 |
Latest progs continue to suggest a long-duration event with waves migrating along an E/W frontal boundary where Gulf of Mexico moisture over-runs arctic air mass followed by Delmarva cyclogenesis.
Earlier than usual forecast call for Storm #4 a result of schedule conflicts Friday evening.
Contest for Storm #4 may be cancelled prior to the deadline if fewer than six stations are likely to observe at least a 4" snowfall.
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Forecast element: storm-total snowfall
Deadline for entries: 10:30 PM EST ... SAT ... 07-FEB-15
Verification begins: 12:01 AM EST ... SUN ... 08-FEB-15
Verification ends: when the snow stops falling
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Enter your forecast at NEWxSFC/s home page here.
Follow the top-of-page link from 'Enter Storm Forecast.
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As always ... there/s no cost ... no fee ... no advertising ... or annoying requests for personal information to enter a forecast. It's just a fun exercise for winter wx enthusiasts to see who can make the best synoptic-scale snowfall forecast.
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If you are issuing your first forecast this winter ... or you entered the 'season-total' forecast contest ... you/ll need to create an account (user name / password / valid e-mail ... if you want a copy of your forecast sent to your Inbox).
Winter '14 / '15 - Storm #3: FINAL Results
Full forecast verifications and summary for Storm #3 at the Contest/s web site.
| 1st - TQ | ||||
| SUMSQ: | 126.46 | |||
| SUMSQ Z: | -1.195 | |||
| STP: | 14.6 | (2) | ||
| TAE: | 39.4 | (2) | ||
| AAE: | 1.79 | (2) | ||
| 2nd - donsutherland1 | ||||
| SUMSQ: | 130.19 | |||
| SUMSQ Z: | -1.176 | |||
| STP: | 25.9 | (5) | ||
| TAE: | 38.8 | (1) | ||
| AAE: | 1.68 | (1) | ||
| 3rd - Herb@MAWS | ||||
| SUMSQ: | 215.4 | |||
| SUMSQ Z: | -0.730 | |||
| STP: | 16.8 | (3) | ||
| TAE: | 44.5 | (3) | ||
| AAE: | 1.93 | (3) | ||
| HM - Shillelagh | ||||
| SUMSQ: | 239.5 | |||
| SUMSQ Z: | -0.603 | |||
| STP: | 51.5 | (9) | ||
| TAE: | 53.9 | (4) | ||
| AAE: | 2.45 | (4) | ||
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SUMSQ: sum of square errors
STP: storm-total precipitation error
TAE: total absolute error
AAE: average absolute error
(number): category rank
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Click images to enlarge.
Wednesday, February 04, 2015
Winter '14 / '15 - Storm #3: Preliminary Verification
Good coverage and reporting.
Suspect observations: none
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Twelve new daily snowfall records on 02-FEB-15
BOS - 16.2" (11.1"; 1974)
BGR - 12.3" (10.7"; 2011)
ALB - 11.9" (5.5"; 1982)
ORF - 11.4" (8.4"; 1974)
BDL - 10.8" (6.5"; 1916)
BDR - 10.3" (3.2"; 1985)
CON - 9.9" (8.4"; 1967)
BGM - 8.8" (6.8"; 1956)
PVD - 7.9" (6.5"; 1984)
IAD - 4.9" (3.5"; 1996)
EWR - 4.2" (3.4"; 1985)
JFK - 4.2" (3.3"; 1985)
MAX storm-total liquid:
ISP - 1.43"
Storm #3/s remarkably similar synoptic set-up to the previous BOS and ORH snowfall records.
Please report any errors in Comments along with a link to the correct data.
Final results THU evening.
Sunday, February 01, 2015
Winter '14 / '15 - Storm #3: The Forecasts!
Rookies 0
Interns 0
Journeyman 0
Senior 11
TOT 11
Forecasts are ranked by their storm-total precipitation (STP).
BLUE ==> 25th percentile.
RED ==> 75th percentile.
STP cells without color are between the 25th and 75th percentile.
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Heaviest snowfall (+8") consensus expected along and to right of a line from BGR ... PWM ... BOS ... BDL ... BGM ... ALB ... BGR with a second lollypop in less than week expected at ORH.
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AO shows up this go'round.
PNA and NAO trending the right direction.
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Everyone/s station-by-station forecast at the Contest/s web site.
Saturday, January 31, 2015
Friday, January 30, 2015
Winter '14 / '15 - Storm #2: FINAL Results
Full forecast verifications and summary for Storm #2 at the Contest/s web site.
| 1st - Donald Rosenfeld | ||||
| SUMSQ: | 654.05 | |||
| SUMSQ Z: | -1.375 | |||
| STP: | 12.7 | (2) | ||
| TAE: | 96.1 | (1) | ||
| AAE: | 3.56 | (1) | ||
| 2nd - donsutherland1 | ||||
| SUMSQ: | 1116.14 | |||
| SUMSQ Z: | -0.873 | |||
| STP: | 56.4 | (5) | ||
| TAE: | 129.8 | (3) | ||
| AAE: | 4.81 | (3) | ||
| 3rd - shillelagh | ||||
| SUMSQ: | 1409.4 | |||
| SUMSQ Z: | -0.555 | |||
| STP: | 89.6 | (9) | ||
| TAE: | 117.0 | (2) | ||
| AAE: | 4.34 | (2) | ||
| HM - WeatherT | ||||
| SUMSQ: | 1456.6 | |||
| SUMSQ Z: | -0.504 | |||
| STP: | 41.1 | (3) | ||
| TAE: | 138.7 | (4) | ||
| AAE: | 5.14 | (4) | ||
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SUMSQ: sum of square errors
STP: storm-total precipitation error
TAE: total absolute error
AAE: average absolute error
(number): category rank
Click on images for higher resolution.
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Click images to enlarge.
Winter '14 / '15 - Storm #3: Call for Forecasts!
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| NYC 02-FEB-1969 Paparazzi is still in business! |
The western long wave ridge rolled over the LOW as it moved inland. The advancing ridge in turn amplified the full-latitude trof over the east ... the same trof responsible for record snowfalls for Storm #2 ... and pulled the remnants of the upper LOW into the 4-corners region today.
As the trof shears out to the east on SAT .. surface LOW pressure begins to develop in the lee of the southern Rockies and starts organizing INVOF the Arklatex early SUN morning.
Over-running frozen precipitation expected in the Arctic air north of the warm front attending the LOW and along the backside of the system as it moves up the M-A and NE coast.
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Forecast element: storm-total snowfall
Deadline for entries: 10:30 PM EST ... SAT ... 31-JAN-15
Verification begins: 12:01 AM EST ... SUN ... 01-FEB-15
Verification ends: when the snow stops falling
---
Enter your forecast at the NEWxSFC/s home page here.
Follow the top-of-page link from 'Enter Storm Forecast.
---
As always ... there/s no cost ... no fee ... no advertising ... or annoying requests for personal information to enter a forecast. It's just a fun exercise for winter wx enthusiasts to see who can make the best synoptic-scale snowfall forecast.
---
If you are issuing your first forecast this winter...or you entered the 'season-total' forecast contest ... you/ll need to create an account (user name / password / valid e-mail ... if you want a copy of your forecast sent to your Inbox).
Thursday, January 29, 2015
Winter '14 / '15 - Storm #2: Preliminary Verification
Preliminary storm-total snowfalls for Storm #2 (26/28-JAN-15) from CDUS41 and CXUS51 bulletins.
Suspect observations
- PWM/s 2.37" liquid on the 27th works out to an SLR slightly less than 10:1.
The 7-group @ 12z/28th is much lower.
Estimated liquid: 0.95"
- BTV/s 0.03" liquid on the 27th ==> 120:1 SLR.
- PNSBOX carried 27" @HYA; however ... vicinity reports averaged 22".
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One new daily snowfall record on 26-JAN-15
ISP - 7.5" (4.5"; 1987)
Eight new daily snowfall records on 27-JAN-15
ORH - 31.9" (11"; 2011)
PWM - 22.8" (8.3"; 1963)
BOS - 22.1" (8.8"; 2011)
ISP - 17.3" (9.6"; 2011)
PVD - 16" (6.7"; 2011)
BGR - 14.9" (10.8"; 1963)
CON - 12.8" (6.2"; 1963)
JFK - 5.6" (4.3"; 2011)
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Please report any errors in Comments along with a link to the correct data.
Final results Friday evening.
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