CONTEST STATUS - Updated: SAT ... 14-APR-18 @ 9 PM EDT

Winter '17 / '18 - Snowfall Forecast Contests

19th Annual 'Regular Season' Snowfall Forecast Contest
- FINAL Results here
1st Place: Brad Yehl
2nd Place: Don Sutherland
3rd Place: NWS ER WFOs
HM: Herb @MAWS

17th Annual 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest
- FINAL Results here
1st Place: Don Sutherland
2nd Place: Mitchel Volk
3rd Place: Brad Yehl
Climo: 5th place

Winter '16 / '17 - Snowfall Forecast Contests
18th Annual 'Regular Season'
FINAL results here

16th Annual 'Season-total'
FINAL results here

Friday, January 30, 2015

Winter '14 / '15 - Storm #2: FINAL Results

Full forecast verifications and summary for Storm #2 at the Contest/s web site.

 1st - Donald Rosenfeld 
 SUMSQ Z:-1.375  
 STP:12.7 (2) 
 TAE:96.1 (1) 
 AAE:3.56 (1) 
 2nd - donsutherland1 
 SUMSQ Z:-0.873  
 STP:56.4 (5) 
 TAE:129.8 (3) 
 AAE:4.81 (3) 
 3rd - shillelagh 
 SUMSQ Z:-0.555  
 STP:89.6 (9) 
 TAE:117.0 (2) 
 AAE:4.34 (2) 
 HM - WeatherT 
 SUMSQ Z:-0.504  
 STP:41.1 (3) 
 TAE:138.7 (4) 
 AAE:5.14 (4) 

SUMSQ: sum of square errors
STP: storm-total precipitation error
TAE: total absolute error
AAE: average absolute error
(number): category rank
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Click images to enlarge.


Anonymous said...

Thanks for the reports. Check the list of stations that had less snow than min forecast, I think that has some errors. I didn't check the best forecast minimum as that rather depresses me.

-- Roger Smith

TQ said...

Right about the MIN > OBS analysis. Too much happening at once tonight.