Winter '14 / '15 - 14th Annual Season-total Snowfall Forecast Contest: FINAL Results

Don Sutherland FTW!

 

The 'season-total' snowfall forecast contest/s error statistic is total absolute error.

For each forecast station ... the absolute value of (Forecast - Observed) is calculated ... then summed.

 

Forecasts with lower 'total absolute forecast' errors have more skill than those with higher 'total absolute forecast' errors.

 

P-O-R-N is the 'Period Of Record Normal' or climatology.

Skillful season-total forecasts beat climatology.

 

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Lowest Station Errors

http://newxsfc.blogspot.com/2015/04/winter-14-15-season-total-snowfall_10.html

 

Forecaster STP Summary

http://newxsfc.blogspot.com/2015/04/winter-14-15-season-total-snowfall_31.html

 

Snowfall Totals (DJFM)

http://newxsfc.blogspot.com/2015/04/winter-14-15-season-total-snowfall_42.html

 

DEC Totals

http://newxsfc.blogspot.com/2015/02/winter-14-15-season-total-snowfall.html

 

JAN Totals

http://newxsfc.blogspot.com/2015/02/winter-14-15-season-total-snowfall_17.html

 

FEB Totals

http://newxsfc.blogspot.com/2015/03/winter-14-15-season-total-snowfall.html

 

MAR Totals

http://newxsfc.blogspot.com/2015/04/winter-14-15-season-total-snowfall_8.html

 

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Everyone's forecast has been verified and posted to the Contest/s web site here.

Hope to see y'all back again next winter.

Winter '14 / '15 - Season-total Snowfall Forecast Contest: Lowest Station Errors

Winter '14 / '15 - Season-total Snowfall Forecast Contest: Forecaster STP Summary

Forecaster season-total snowfall forecasts are ranked by their departure from the observed season-total snowfall.  It does not show forecasts ranked by their accuracy.  Forecast accuracy is determined by the sum of absolute errors for all stations.

Red ==> 67th percentile
White ==> Less than 75th and greater than 25th percentile
Blue ==> 33rd percentile

Winter '14 / '15 - Season-total Snowfall Forecast Contest: Snowfall Totals (DJFM)

Despite the slow start to the season ... winter quickly made up for lost time between late JAN and MAR.

Season-total snowfall for all stations (1,336") came in 43% above the period-of-record normal (934"). 

 

 

Green ==> 75th percentile

White ==> Less than 75th and greater than 25th percentile
Red ==> 25th percentile

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STP for winter '14 / '15 ranks 3rd among other Contest years since winter '04 / '05 ... the season when BGR and BGM were added to the station list.

 

Winter '14 / '15 - Season-total Snowfall Forecast Contest: MAR Totals

Monthly station snowfall summary for MAR-15.
Rank ordered by percent of monthly normal.

Green ==> 75th percentile
White ==> Less than 75th and greater than 25th percentile
Red ==> 25th percentile

 

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Teleconnection Indexes

AO:  +1.837
NAO:  +1.45
PNA:  +0.49
PDO:  2.00
QBO:  -28.15 (monthly record)
MEI:  .650 (FEB-MAR)

Winter '14 / '15 - VCP32: Self-Esteem Is Enhanced By Remaining An Ignoramus

Winter '14 / '15 - Sudden Stratospheric Warming: Watch #2 - Update 4

Incoming!

 

Deep layer Easter easterlies.

 

 

PV displacement

 

Split vortices.

 

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Major SSW event has begun!

 

 

Winter '14 / '15 - Sudden Stratospheric Warming: Watch #2 - Update 3

ECMWF continues its forecast for a SSW event in the near-term.

Winter '14 / '15 - Sudden Stratospheric Warming: Watch #2 - Update 2

Complete break down of the Polar vortex at month's end.

Deep ... deep layer wind reversal (easterlies up and down the Polar atmosphere) 

 

Prediction:  cold spring in the east.

Winter '14 / '15 - Sudden Stratospheric Warming: Watch #2 - Update

Fookin' C-O-L-D a'comin.'