Winter '16 / '17 - Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI)

Winter '16 / '17 - Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)

Winter '16 / '17 - First Contact

 

 

Winter '15 / '16 - 15th Annual Season-total Snowfall Forecast Contest: FINAL Results

Snowman FTW!

The 'season-total' snowfall forecast contest/s error statistic is total absolute error.
For each forecast station ... the absolute value of (Forecast - Observed) is calculated ... then summed.

Forecasts with lower 'total absolute forecast' errors have more skill than those with higher 'total absolute forecast' errors.

CONSENSUS is the mean forecast of all forecasts computed for each station.
P-O-R-N is the 'Period Of Record Normal' or climatology.
Skillful season-total forecasts beat climatology.

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Table of lowest station errors.

  

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Table of the total absolute value of (total snowfall forecast - total snowfall observed).

 

If you finished higher in this table than the 'Total Absolute' table ... you did a better job of forecasting the sum total snowfall amount over the entire forecast area than the distribution of station-total snowfall amounts.

 

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Verified forecasts at NEWxSFC/s web site here.

Winter '15 / '16 - 15th Annual Season-total Snowfall Forecast Contest: Snowfall Totals (DJFM)

 

 

Green ==> 75th percentile

White ==> Less than 75th and greater than 25th percentile

Red ==> 25th percentile

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Extremely slow start to the season.
Only CAR measured above normal snowfall in DEC.
Second highest monthly snowfall:  BGR at 67% normal.

Twelve stations above normal for JAN thanks to major event along the M-A at month's end.

BWI measured 526% normal.

 

Seven stations above normal in FEB.

SBY and BDR measured170% normal.

 

Thee stations above normal in MAR.

SBY measured 322%.

 

Season-total biggest losers: BTV (35%) ... BGM (30%) ... RDU (22%) ... and ALB (19%)

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Good year for the M-A.

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Season-total snowfall from all stations (720") came in 23% below the period-of-record normal (932").  Winter '15 / '16 ranks 3rd lowest among other Contest years since winter '04 / '05 ... the season when BGR and BGM were added to the station list. 

Winter '15 / '16 - Season-total Snowfall Forecast Contest: MAR totals

Station snowfall summary for MAR-16.
Rank ordered by percent of monthly normal.

Green ==> 75th percentile
White ==> Less than 75th and greater than 25th percentile
Red ==> 25th percentile

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Teleconnection Indexes
AO:  0.280
NAO:  0.73
PDO:  2.40
QBO:  3.16
 SOI: -4.7

Winter '15 / '16 - Season-total Snowfall Forecast Contest: FEB totals

Station snowfall summary for FEB-16.
Rank ordered by percent of monthly normal.

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Green ==> 75th percentile
White ==> Less than 75th and greater than 25th percentile
Red ==> 25th percentile

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Teleconnection Indexes
AO:  -0.024
NAO:  1.58
PDO:   1.75
QBO:   6.79
SOI: -19.7

Winter '15 / '16 - VCP32: Procrastinating and Rationalizing

Winter '15 / '16 - Snow Storm #3 - Call for Forecasts!

E. Meadow - Hempstead Turnpike
Long Island ... NY
18-FEB-36

CANCELLED

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Not the greatest set of progs you/ll ever see but that/s been the story a couple times already this winter.

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Forecast element: storm-total snowfall

Deadline: 10:30 PM EST ... SUN ... 14-FEB-16

Verification period begins: 12:01 AM EST ... MON .... 15-FEB-16
Verification period ends: 11:59 PM EST ... TUE ... 16-FEB-16

 

Enter your forecast at the NEWxSFC/s home page @ http://www.newx-forecasts.com/
Follow the top-of-page link from 'Enter Storm Forecast.'

Contest may be cancelled before deadline if storm appears to fizzle.

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As always ... there/s no cost ... no fee ... no advertising ... or annoying requests for personal information to enter a forecast.  It's just a fun exercise for winter wx enthusiasts to see who can make the best synoptic-scale snowfall forecast.

If you are issuing your first forecast this winter ... or you entered the 'season-total' forecast contest ... you/ll need to create an account (user name / password / valid e-mail ... if you want a copy of your forecast sent to your Inbox.

Winter '15 / '16 - Snow Storm #2 - FINAL Results

Full forecast verification and summary at NEWxSFC/s home page.

	1st - TQ
	SUMSQ:	49.52
	SUMSQ Z:	-0.586
	STP:	17.8	(4)
	TAE:	28.2	(1)
	AAE:	1.04	(1)
	2nd - donsutherland1
	SUMSQ:	64.62
	SUMSQ Z:	-0.542
	STP:	25.4	(7)
	TAE:	32.7	(2)
	AAE:	1.31	(2)
	3rd - Herb @MAWS
	SUMSQ:	76.6
	SUMSQ Z:	-0.507
	STP:	9.1	(3)
	TAE:	34.6	(3)
	AAE:	1.39	(3)
	HM - Donald Rosenfeld
	SUMSQ:	77.7
	SUMSQ Z:	-0.504
	STP:	19.9	(5)
	TAE:	34.8	(4)
	AAE:	1.39	(4)

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SUMSQ: sum of square errors
STP: storm-total precipitation error
TAE: total absolute error
AAE: average absolute error
(number): category rank

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