Winter '16 / '17 - Snow Storm #2: FINAL Results

Forecaster verifications and storm summary at NEWxSFC/s home page.
http://www.newx-forecasts.com/

	1st - emoran
	SUMSQ:	130
	SUMSQ Z:	-0.850
	STP:	7.6	(4)
	TAE:	40.1	(1)
	AAE:	1.74	(1)
	2nd - donsutherland1
	SUMSQ:	131
	SUMSQ Z:	-0.848
	STP:	20.6	(9)
	TAE:	45.2	(4)
	AAE:	1.81	(3)
	3rd - TQ
	SUMSQ:	133
	SUMSQ Z:	-0.842
	STP:	28.1	(12)
	TAE:	49.3	(6)
	AAE:	1.89	(4)
	HM - Brad Yehl
	SUMSQ:	161
	SUMSQ Z:	-0.728
	STP:	8.0	(5)
	TAE:	43.1	(2)
	AAE:	1.80	(2)

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SUMSQ: sum of square errors (")
STP: storm-total precipitation error (")
TAE: total absolute error (")
AAE: average absolute error (")
(number): category rank

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Winter '16 / '17 - Snow Storm #3: RAW FORECASTS

Here

- courtesy Google Groups

Winter '16 / '17 - Snow Storm #2: Preliminary Verification

Table of preliminary storm-total snowfalls for THU and FRI from CDUS41 and CXUS51 bulletins.

Exceptions:
HYA
Storm-total snowfall estimated by interpolation of vicinity PNSBOX reports.

PWM
09-FEB/s daily CLI and CF6 bulletins carry 'MM' as daily snowfall at post-time.  Storm-total snowfall as reported by PNSGYX.  Value subject to change pending CDUS41 and CXUS51 bulletin updates.

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Stations observed at least:
Trace - 21
4" - 14
6" - 14
8" - 9
10" - 7
12" - 5
14" - 2

Max melt-water at ISP (1.3")
Other stations with > 1" melt-water:  BDL (1.19"); PVD (1.01")

Snow-Liquid Ratios (SLR) for areas with mixed precipitation ... such as PHL and MDT ... are not reported.

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Four new daily records.
09-FEB-17
ISP - 14.3" (11.1"; 2013)
PVD - 11.9" (9.9"; 1969)
ABE - 7.1" (5"; 1936)
BGM - 5.2" (4.6"; 1969)

Synoptic charts from the 1969 storm below.
New England stations reported up to 25".

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SFC:  09-FEB-69

SFC:  10-FEB-69

5H:  09-FEB-69

5H:  10-FEB-69

Synoptic charts courtesy U.S. Daily Weather Maps.

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Please report any errors in Comments along with a link to the correct data.

Final results NLT SUN evening.

Winter '16 / '17 - Snow Storm #3: Call for Forecasts!

BOS
FEB c.1930

Big wheel keep on turning!

Wave associated with cyclogenesis in the lee of the Rockies early SAT AM migrates quickly to the NE into New England during the day SUN.  This feature merges with another LOW sweeping SE in the northern stream then bombs out and becomes q-stationary over 12-hours in the Gulf of Maine on MON.

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Forecast element: storm-total snowfall
Deadline for entries:
10:30 PM EST ... SAT ... 11-FEB-17
Verification period begins:
12:01 AM EST ... SUN ... 12-FEB-17
Verification period ends:
11:59 PM EST ... MON ... 13-FEB-17

Enter your forecast at the NEWxSFC/s home page @ http://www.newx-forecasts.com/
Follow the top-of-page link from 'Enter Storm Forecast.'

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As always ... there/s no cost ... no fee ... no advertising ... or annoying requests for personal information to enter a forecast.  It's just a fun exercise for winter wx enthusiasts to see who can make the best synoptic-scale snowfall forecast.
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If you are issuing your first forecast this winter ... or you entered the 'season-total' forecast contest ... you/ll need to create an account (user name / password / valid e-mail ... if you want a copy of your forecast sent to your Inbox.
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Contest may be cancelled before deadline if storm appears to fizzle.

Some 'Call for Forecast' notices via email may not be sent until SAT AM.

Winter '16 / '17 - Snow Storm #2: The Forecasts

Rookie 1
Intern 0
Journey 1
Senior 15
TOT 17

Includes NWS 'official' forecasts ... as of the deadline.

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Forecasts are ranked by their storm-total precipitation (STP).

BLUE ==> 25th percentile
RED ==> 75th percentile
White STP cells range between the 25th and 75th percentile.

Heaviest snowfall (>= 10") consensus along and the right of PWM - BOS - HYA - ISP - BDR - BDL - ORH - PWM.  Lollypop expected at ORH.

What's that conventional wisdom about the NAO and NE snowstorms again?

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Everyone/s station-by-station forecast posted to NEWxSFC/s web site @ http://www.newx-forecasts.com/

 

Preliminary snowfall verifications posted Saturday.

FINAL results on Sunday.

Winter '16 / '17 - Snow Storm #2: RAW FORECASTS

Here
(NEWxSFC Google Group Main Page:  https://groups.google.com/forum/?fromgroups#!forum/ne_wx)

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NWS point forecast values to be added tomorrow (THU) evening.

Winter '16 / '17 - Snow Storm #2: Call for Forecasts!

06-FEB-61
NYC - 42nd St
17.4"

Long time coming.
Only twice before in NEWxSFC history has the month of JAN slipped through without a contest-worthy snow storm.

The opening bid at the start of meteorological winter/s final month has cyclogenesis off the Delmarva Peninsula early THU with the rapid deepening nor'easter/s track aimed straight toward the famed 40/70 benchmark.

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Forecast element: storm-total snowfall
Deadline:
10:30 PM EST ... WED... 08-FEB-17
Verification period begins:
12:01 AM EST ... THU ... 09-FEB-17
Verification period ends:
11:59 PM EST ... FRI ... 10-FEB-17

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Enter your forecast at the NEWxSFC/s home page @ http://www.newx-forecasts.com/
Follow the top-of-page link from 'Enter Storm Forecast.'

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As always ... there/s no cost ... no fee ... no advertising ... or annoying requests for personal information to enter a forecast.  It's just a fun exercise for winter wx enthusiasts to see who can make the best synoptic-scale snowfall forecast.



04-FEB-61
1 PM EST

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If you are issuing your first forecast this winter ... or you entered the 'season-total' forecast contest ... you/ll need to create an account (user name / password / valid e-mail ... if you want a copy of your forecast sent to your Inbox.

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Contest may be cancelled before deadline if storm appears to fizzle.

Winter '16 / '17 - Sudden Stratospheric Warming: Watch #1 - UPDATE 2

The well forecast major warming 'displacement' event is well underway.
Major warming:  temperature increase >= 25°C over seven days.

 

Stratosphere Diagnostics courtesy Freie Universität Berlin / Department of Earth Sciences / Institute of Meteorology  

 

 

 

 

Stratosphere analysis courtesy Tokyo Climate Center, Climate Prediction Division Japan Meteorological Agency

 

Winter '16 / '17 - Sudden Stratospheric Warming: Watch #1 - UPDATE

Displacement event looms near month's end.

 

 

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QBO > 10 kt

Strong STJ (50 kt)

Weak PV (30 kt)

Flow reversals above 5 mb and below 300 mb

 

 

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Cold air mother lode sits over Hudson Bay with full-latitude trough attending.

 

 

 

Winter '16 / '17 - Sudden Stratospheric Warming: Watch #1

A sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) event may be in the works for the last week of the month.

After weeks and weeks of a high-speed rotation ... polar vortex (PV) forecasts suggest a significant slowing / weakening.  Slowing of PV suggests a deep layer of easterlies (light blue; lower right corner) over the Pole.

A maturing of this scenario would portend Arctic air drainage into the mid-latitudes.


Stratosphere Diagnostics courtesy Freie Universität Berlin / Department of Earth Sciences / Institute of Meteorology