CONTEST STATUS - Updated: SAT ... 14-APR-18 @ 9 PM EDT

Winter '17 / '18 - Snowfall Forecast Contests

19th Annual 'Regular Season' Snowfall Forecast Contest
- FINAL Results here
1st Place: Brad Yehl
2nd Place: Don Sutherland
3rd Place: NWS ER WFOs
HM: Herb @MAWS

17th Annual 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest
- FINAL Results here
1st Place: Don Sutherland
2nd Place: Mitchel Volk
3rd Place: Brad Yehl
Climo: 5th place

Winter '16 / '17 - Snowfall Forecast Contests
18th Annual 'Regular Season'
FINAL results here

16th Annual 'Season-total'
FINAL results here

Sunday, February 12, 2017

Winter '16 / '17 - Snow Storm #2: FINAL Results

Forecaster verifications and storm summary at NEWxSFC/s home page.

 1st - emoran 
 SUMSQ Z:-0.850  
 STP:7.6 (4) 
 TAE:40.1 (1) 
 AAE:1.74 (1) 
 2nd - donsutherland1 
 SUMSQ Z:-0.848  
 STP:20.6 (9) 
 TAE:45.2 (4) 
 AAE:1.81 (3) 
 3rd - TQ 
 SUMSQ Z:-0.842  
 STP:28.1 (12) 
 TAE:49.3 (6) 
 AAE:1.89 (4) 
 HM - Brad Yehl 
 SUMSQ Z:-0.728  
 STP:8.0 (5) 
 TAE:43.1 (2) 
 AAE:1.80 (2) 

SUMSQ: sum of square errors (")
STP: storm-total precipitation error (")
TAE: total absolute error (")
AAE: average absolute error (")
(number): category rank



Peter O'Donnell said...

Thanks for all the work you've done, but I must point out that I earned more discredit than you noted, I think all the missing "best station busts" in storm 2 belong to moi. Well done to the winners on that one, I needed another hour of snow to make my numbers work :)

-- Roger Smith

TQ said...

Thank you for noticing a significant error in my data processing.

Turns out ... 'copy down' doesn't work on hidden cells.

TQ said...


Peter O'Donnell said...

Looks good, however one of my busts was also max forecast for ISP so that comment needs to be edited too (max forecast was not best at ISP unfortunately, I needed five minutes more snow or maybe ten). -- Roger Smith

TQ said...

Don't see where your ISP forecast error was the highest.

Observed: 14.3"

Your ISP forecast: 20"
Your ISP error: 5.7"

MAX bust forecast: 6" (kevinmyatt)
MAX bust forecast: 8.3"

What am I missing?

Peter O'Donnell said...

What you say above is correct but I meant that the highest forecast for ISP (mine at 20.0") was not best forecast as with BDL where the max was closest. Pretty trivial matter in any case. -- Roger Smith

TQ said...

Now I'm following you.
Appreciate your eagle eye.

When I caption that image ... it's an eyeball evaluation.
In this case ... a miss.