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| Portland ... ME 28-JAN-1886 |
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| Boston Public Garden 25-FEB-62 |
This storm shows much more promise to have more than enough forecast stations in play to be contest-worthy.
One thing remains unchanged from - the parade of winter storms affecting the M-A and the NE with messy p-types.
Enter your forecast at the NEWxSFC/s home page at http://www.newx-forecasts.com/
Follow the top-of-page link from 'Enter Snow Storm Forecast'
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Forecast element: each station/s storm-total snowfall
Deadline for entries: 10 PM EST ... WED ... 17-FEB-21
Verification begins: 12:01 AM EST ... THU ... 18-FEB-21
Verification ends: 11:59 PM EST the day when snow stops accumulating
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| BWI Columbia Ave. (13-FEB-1899) |
UPDATE 4:30 PM EST ... MON ...15-FEB-21
Not happenin' ...
UPDATE 10:45 AM EST ... MON ...15-FEB-21
Trend not being very friendly ...
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Original post (5:13 PM EST ... SUN ...14-FEB-21)
Contest-worthy snows expected along the NW edge of the precipitation shield as the next in a parade of winter storm slides east across the northern M-A then off the SNE coast. Messy p-type forecasts downstate.
Enter your forecast at the NEWxSFC/s home page at http://www.newx-forecasts.com/
Follow the top-of-page link from 'Enter Snow Storm Forecast'
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Forecast element: each station/s storm-total snowfall
Deadline for entries: 10 PM EST ... MON ... 15-FEB-21
Verification begins: 12:01 AM EST ... TUE ... 16-FEB-21
Verification ends: 11:59 PM EST ... TUE ... 16-FEB-21
You also get the chance to see how well your forecast stacks up against NWS Eastern Region Weather Forecast Offices. Turns out they/ve been fairly easy to beat!
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| Mass General Hospital (06-FEB-61) |
UPDATE 14-FEB-21 4 PM EST: corrected JAN total for EWR ... NYC ... BDR and JAN Forecast Station Highlights section.
h/t Roger Smith
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JAN-21 snowfall summary by forecast station.
Rank-ordered descending by percent of monthly period-of-record-normal
(%JAN)
Green ==> 4th quartile
White ==> Inter-quartile range
Red ==> 1st quartile
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JAN Forecast Station Highlights
3 stations with above normal monthly snowfall
BTV
4.1" (21%) above JAN normal
ORF
0.2" (6%) above JAN normal
SBY
0.2" (6%) above JAN normal
Biggest Losers
PWM ... CON (less than 35% JAN P-O-R-N)
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Season-Total-to-Date
JAN P-O-R-N contributes 279" (30%) toward the season-total snowfall (D-J-F-M) of 929".
JAN-21 observed snowfall: 212" (-44% below P-O-R-N; 17% of season-total snowfall)
Image courtesy NOHRSC @ http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/nsa/
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Teleconnections
AO / NAO / PNA data
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/daily.index.ascii
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DEC Totals
https://newxsfc.blogspot.com/2021/01/winter-20-21-season-total-snowfall.html
After three snow storm forecasting contests ... under the ‘two-thirds’ rule … forecasters who have entered at least TWO forecasts are included in interim standings #1.
Complete forecaster verification table and the FINAL Results / Storm Summary available at NEWxSFC/s home page.
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| Accumulation-weighted SN:H20 (SLR) |
Preliminary verification of storm-total snowfalls for SUN and MON from CDUS41 (CLI) ... CXUS51 (CF6) ... METARs ... and PNS bulletins. Excellent coverage and reporting.
HYA STP estimated by applying inverse distance weighting interpolation of three timely reports within 3.5 SM of the station carried by the PNS bulletin from BOX.
SBY STP estimated based on one report from the forecast station/s county (Wicomico) carried by AKQ/s PNS bulletin.
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SLR not reported for some stations with measurable snowfall b/c significant liquid and / or freezing precipitation also occurred during the verification period.
Forecasters
NYC
Summit Hotel on Lexington Ave
07-FEB-67
Rookie 2
Intern -
Journey -
Senior 18
GOVT 1
PWSP 1
TOT 22
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Forecasters rank-ordered by ascending storm-total precipitation (STP)
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