Winter '22 / '23 - North and West of I-95: Why does snow in the Eastern US always seem fall to the West of I-95?

Are the snow-maker weather systems influenced by the fall line?

 

"This cold-to-warm transition zone is further increased by the presence of the Appalachian Mountains, which are found to the west of the I-95 corridor. This elevation increase starts at the fall line, the geological boundary between the low-level coastal plains and the foothills of the Piedmont.

 

"The fall line is the historical edge of this range mountains and is the point at which the elevation of the land starts increasing. In the short distance between Washington National Airport and Washington Dulles Airport, both near Washington DC, the elevation increases over 300 feet (90 meters)" 

 

More ...

Winter '18 / '19 - The Woolly Bear Caterpillar Guide to Winter Weather Forecasting

It/s that time of year again when long-range wx forecasters scour the bowels looking for ... well ... wadda you say we don/t go there.

More better ... consult the Woolly Bear Caterpillar Guide to Winter Weather Forecasting.

(Lightly edited re-post from USENET news group ne.weather 11-OCT-03)

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In recent weeks ... a spate of news articles have appeared about the woolly bear caterpillar and its legendary ability to foretell the upcoming winter based on the color and width of its black and orange stripes.

With so much good information scattered across so many sources ... there appeared to be a need to compile the forecasting rules.

This handy forecasting guide can be printed and kept inside your coat pocket for easy reference.

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The Woolly Bear Caterpillars Among Us

There is more than one kind of woolly bear caterpillar.  The one you use when forecasting is the banded woolly caterpillar ... which becomes the Isabella moth (Pyrrharctia Isabella) in the spring.  Pictures of the caterpillar and moth can be seen here: Caterpillar Moth

Science is Skeptical

It should come as no surprise ... entomologists pooh-pooh the very idea banded woolly bear caterpillars can predict future events.  These naysayers claim variations in band color and width are evidence of a worm/s age and the fall weather conditions when the worm reached maturity.

Worms exhibiting more black than orange are older and grew in wet conditions.  Worms exhibiting less black than orange are younger and grew in dry conditions.  And therein we find the caterpillar's predictive value. 

Read more »

Winter '22 / '23 - The Strangest Superstitions About Snow In History

Wilson Bently

Snow has "... been used as a basis for everything from miraculous church-building to questionable medical cures, from holy substance to cause of disease and potential breeding-ground for hairy grubs"

"A barefoot run in the first snow of the year is recommended for everything from preventing chilblains in children to frostbite and sore throat. Eating or drinking it, meanwhile, was a cure for many ills, including warts and toothache (and freckles, which needed a "treatment" at the time), and if you had a nosebleed it was a good idea to hold snow at the back of your neck, presumably to give you something else upsetting to think about."

 More ...

Winter '22 / '23 - General Winter Precipitation Forecasting - Jeff Haby

 

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Winter '22 / '23 - Snowmageddon Weather in North America More Influenced by Tropics Than Arctic

"Winter weather patterns in North America are dictated by changes to the polar vortex winds high in the atmosphere, but the most significant cold snaps are more likely influenced by the tropics ..."

"The study, published in Geophysical Research Letters on December 27, 2019, also revealed that, unlike in Europe, the most extreme cold snaps affecting the whole of North America are not most likely to occur after a weak (polar) vortex. Instead, the shape of the vortex and conditions in the tropics were identified as stronger influences of these conditions"

More ...

Winter '21 / '22 - 23nd Annual 'Regular Season' Snowfall Forecast Contest: FINAL Results

VT

After FIVE contest-worthy snow storms ... under the ‘two-thirds’ rule … forecasters who entered at least FOUR forecasts are included in this season's FINAL standings.

Full table with all other error statistics at the Contest/s web site here (direct link).
Individual forecaster's storm statistics here (direct link).

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Best Forecasts by Storm (lowest SUMSQ Error Z-Scores)

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Top 10 Forecasts - All Storms (Error statistic:  Sum of Squared Errors Z - SUMSQ Z)

SUMSQ Error Z is the primary measure of forecaster skill (lower the better).
Accounts for the magnitude and distribution of the storm-total snowfall for all stations.

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Top 10 Forecasts - All Storms (Error statistic:  Total Absolute Error Z - TAE)

TAE Error Z is the secondary measure of forecaster skill (lower the better).
Accounts for the magnitude of snowfall forecast errors at each station.

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Top 10 Forecasts - All Storms (Error statistic:  R-squared Z - RSQ Z)

RSQ is a measure of the how well the 'forecast' snowfall captured the variability of the 'observed' snowfall (higher the better).

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Forecaster's Skill Score (Forecaster Z-score - NWS ER WFOs Z-score) / ER NWS WFOs Z-Score

Skill score measures forecaster performance against a standard (NWS ER WFOs).  Positive (negative) values indicate better (worse) performance compared to the standard.  0% for NWS does not indicate 'no skill.'

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19 unique forecasters submitted a total of 1,623 station forecasts.
6 forecasters entered all 5 contests.
4 forecasters entered 4 contests.
5 forecasters entered 3 contests.
1 forecasters entered 2 contests.
3 forecasters entered 1 contest.

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Hope to see y'all again next winter!

Winter '21 / '22 - 21st Annual 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest: FINAL Results

ACY
01-FEB-28

Congratulations to Any.Wx for issuing the best season-total snowfall forecast for Winter '21 / '22.

Complete forecaster verification table at the Contest web site.
http://www.newx-forecasts.com/NEWxSFC_23/season-total/season_total_verification_2122.htm

Forecasters ranked ascending by their Total Absolute Error (TAE).

BLUE ==> 1st Quartile
WHITE ==>  Interquartile range
RED ==> 4th Quartile
ORANGE:  Winter '21 / '22 Chief 'Season-total' Forecaster (winner of  '20 / '21 contest)

The '%MPRV over PORN' metric indicates how much the forecast was an improvement over Period-Of-Record-Normal (PORN).  Skillful forecasts beat PORN.

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Forecasters' stations having the lowest absolute error.

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Winter '21 / '22 ranks 12th among the 18 Contest seasons since Winter '04 / '05 ... the winter when BGR and BGM were added to the station list.

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Season-total snowfall for Winter '21 / 22 for all forecast stations (818") came in 12% below the Period-Of-Record Normal (925").

Station Climo ... Observed Snowfall ... Departure from Normal ... and Percent of Normal Snowfall

DEC snowfall totals:
https://newxsfc.blogspot.com/2022/01/winter-21-22-season-total-snowfall.html

JAN snowfall totals:
https://newxsfc.blogspot.com/2022/02/winter-21-22-season-total-snowfall.html

FEB snowfall totals:
https://newxsfc.blogspot.com/2022/03/winter-21-22-season-total-snowfall.html

MAR snowfall totals:
https://newxsfc.blogspot.com/2022/04/winter-21-22-season-total-snowfall.html

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Season-total snowfall analysis courtesy NOHRSC

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Teleconnections

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PRIZES
1st place prize (delivered post-paid right to Any.Wx/s front door):
... pick of the litter from NEWxSFC/s library of meteorology and weather publications
... the august title 'Chief Season-total Snowfall Forecaster' for Winter '22 / '23
... a well-deserved place of honor with past Contest winners

2nd place prize (delivered post-paid right to Shillelagh/s front door):
... second pick at NEWxSFC/s library of meteorology and weather publications

3rd place prize (delivered post-paid right to kevinmyatt/s front door):
... third pick at NEWxSFC/s library of meteorology and weather publications

Prizes winners: please contact (newxsfc [at] comcast [dot] net) with a USPS address.

Winter '21 / '22 - 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest: MAR Snowfall Totals

Flat Iron Building ... NYC (1905)

MAR-22 snowfall summary by forecast station.

Rank ordered descending by percent of monthly period-of-record-normal (P-O-R-N). 

Green ==> 4th quartile
White ==> less than 4h and greater than 1st quartile (inter-quartile range)
Red ==> 1st quartile

Obs reported as 0.05" denote a Trace amount (observed but not measurable)

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MAR Forecast Station Highlights
2 stations at or above normal monthly snowfall.

Biggest Losers
15 stations with less then half their monthly normal snowfall.
ACY ... ORF ... RDU snow observed but not measured (Trace)

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Season-Total-to-Date

MAR P-O-R-N contributes 184" (20%) toward the season-total snowfall (D-J-F-M) of 925".
MAR-22 observed snowfall:  117" (64% of monthly P-O-R-N; 13% of season-total snowfall)

Image courtesy NOHRSC @ http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/nsa/

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Teleconnections

 

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DEC snowfall totals:
https://newxsfc.blogspot.com/2022/01/winter-21-22-season-total-snowfall.html

JAN snowfall totals:
https://newxsfc.blogspot.com/2022/02/winter-21-22-season-total-snowfall.html

FEB snowfall totals:
https://newxsfc.blogspot.com/2022/03/winter-21-22-season-total-snowfall.html

Winter '21 / '22 - 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest: FEB Snowfall Totals

Somerset County ... PA-Turnpike (c.1940)

FEB-22 snowfall summary by forecast station.

Rank ordered descending by percent of monthly period-of-record-normal (P-O-R-N).

Green ==> 4th quartile
White ==> less than 4h and greater than 1st quartile (inter-quartile range)
Red ==> 1st quartile

Obs reported as 0.05" denote a Trace (observed but not measurable)

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FEB Forecast Station Highlights
5 stations at or above normal monthly snowfall.

Biggest Losers
12 stations with less then half their monthly normal snowfall.
DCA ... RIC ... and ORF snow observed but not measured (trace)
RDU got skunked.

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Season-Total-to-Date

FEB  P-O-R-N contributes 262" (28%) toward the season-total snowfall (D-J-F-M) of 929".
FEB-22 observed snowfall:  185" (71% of monthly P-O-R-N; 20% of season-total snowfall)

Image courtesy NOHRSC @ http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/nsa/

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Teleconnections

AO / NAO / PNA data

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DEC snowfall totals:
https://newxsfc.blogspot.com/2022/01/winter-21-22-season-total-snowfall.html

JAN snowfall totals:
https://newxsfc.blogspot.com/2022/02/winter-21-22-season-total-snowfall.html

Winter '21 / '22 - Regular Season: Interim Standings #3

New Hartford ... CT
14-Feb-1899

After 5 contest-worthy snow storms ... under the ‘two-thirds’ rule  … forecasters who have entered at least 4 forecasts are included in Interim Standings #3.

Complete interim statistics table and chart at the Contest/s web site (direct link)
Forecaster statistics for Winter '21 / '22 contest snow storms (direct link)

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SUMSQ errors for each contest snow storm are normalized (i.e., standardized) with a 'Z-score' ... then averaged and ranked to compute the standings. If a forecaster has issued forecasts for more than two-thirds of all snow storm contests ... then Z-scores from their 'best two-thirds' forecasts are used to calculate the Interim and Final standings.

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Interim Standings #1
https://newxsfc.blogspot.com/2022/02/winter-21-22-regular-season-interim.html

Interim Standings #2
https://newxsfc.blogspot.com/2022/02/winter-21-22-regular-season-interim2.html

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NOTE:  MitchelVolk's 'Previous Rank(s)' should read '2,2 '