Contest # 2 - Final Results

Full forecast verification and results summary at the web site.

Follow the links to 'Latest Forecasts' and 'Latest Results.'

Forecasters: 12
9 veteran
3 rookies

Station forecasts: 227
Average stations per forecaster: 19
Stations with observed snowfall: 22

Storm-total precipitation (STP), all stations
Forecast Minimum: 22.45" (Donald Rosenfeld)
Consensus Median: 52.75"
Maximum 116" (edhoffman503)

Observed: 55.3"
Max single station: 6.6" PVD
Shutout: BGR...PWM...BTV...ORF...and RDU

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Storm #2 - Results Summary

Congratulations to the Winners!

1st Place - weathafella
SUMSQ Error: 64.5"
SUMSQ - Z: -0.919
STP: 4.3" (3rd)
TAE: 29.9" (1st)
AAE: 1.42" (1st)

2nd Place - herb@MAWS
SUMSQ Error: 73.9"
SUMSQ - Z: -0.837
STP: 6.29" (5th)
TAE: 30.49" (2nd)
AAE: 1.60" (2nd)

3rd Place - donaldsutherland1
SUMSQ Error: 75.3"
SUMSQ - Z: -0.825
STP: 12.4" (8th)
TAE: 30.6" (3rd)
AAE: 1.61" (3rd)

Honorable Mention - shanabe
SUMSQ Error: 114.3" (4th)
SUMSQ - Z: -0.489
STP: 6.15" (4th)
TAE: 35.95(4th)
AAE: 2.00" (5th)

SUMSQ: sum of square errors
STP: storm total precipitation
TAE: total absolute error
AAE: average absolute error

Contest # 3 - Call for Forecasts

Second storm cutting under the Rex block but with much more moisture than the first is on deck for Contest # 3.

Entry Deadline: Wednesday, 28 February 2007 @ 10:30 PM EST.

Verification begins 12:01 AM EST Friday, 2 March 2007 and ends 11:59 PM EST Saturday, 3 March 2007.

Your forecast must be entered via the Contest/s web site. Follow the link to ‘Enter Storm Forecast.’

Forecasters will need to register once before entering, even if they were registered last year. Registration is simple, requiring only a user name and password. If you provide a valid e-mail address, a copy of your forecast will be sent to you immediately after your entry is submitted. Please ensure your browser is enabled to accept first-party cookies.

All forecasts will be posted to the NE_Wx Google Group by the Contest Administrator before 11 PM EST Wednesday, February 28, 2007 and to the Contest web site by Thursday evening.

Contest updates are posted on the Contest/s web log.

The NE.Wx Snowfall Forecast Contest (NEWxSFC) is a multi-month event that continues into late March or early April. In general, contests are held whenever a decent, synoptic-scale storm rears its head and threatens at least a half-dozen forecast stations with more than nuisance snowfall amounts. Forecasters are called to post their 'storm total' snowfall predictions, on deadline, for 27 NWS / FAA observing stations scattered about New England and the Mid-Atlantic regions.

You can find the Contest Rules and additional information about Error Scoring, current monthly snowfall climatology from NCDC, daily CPC teleconnection indices, daily NESDIS N-Hemi snow cover, and NWS Daily Climate Bulletins (CDUS41) at the contest/s web site.

Contest # 2 - Verification

Preliminary storm-total snowfall based on final CDUS41 bulletins from Sunday and Monday and today/s preliminary reports.

Sometimes the final CDUS41 bulletin (issued after midnight) reflects changes from the preliminary bulletin (issued around 5 PM); however, in this case, any changes would likely be small. Snowfall totals from today/s final reports will be used to verify the forecasts.

Report any errors in 'Remarks' along with a link to the correct data. Final results and contest summary will be posted tomorrow evening.

CAR 0.05
BGR 0.00
PWM 0.00
CON 0.90
BTV 0.00
BOS 1.60
HYA 4.10
ORH 4.10
PVD 5.50
BDR 4.00
BDL 5.40
ALB 1.40
BGM 3.30
ISP 2.60
JFK 1.80
ABE 2.20
MDT 1.20
PHL 1.50
ACY 0.40
EWR 2.10
BWI 4.30
IAD 4.50
DCA 2.90
SBY 0.30
RIC 0.05
ORF 0.00
RDU 0.00
TOT 54.20

Contest # 2 - Teleconnections

Storm begins with AO and NAO below zero but both converge toward zero as the event ends. PNA went negative and flat-lined after the Valentine/s Day storm and stayed that way.

Contest # 2 - Day Two Leader Board

Based on Sunday/s (final) and Monday/s (preliminary) CDUS41 bulletins.

donsutherland1
weathafella
herb@maws
Donald Rosenfeld
Raven
shanabe
wxfixer
mitchel volk
TQ
ilibov
DAROONEY
edhoffman503

-SN still falling over ALB...ORH...BDL...PVD...ISP...JFK...and BDR.

Valentine/s Day Storm - NESIS Category 3

In the top three storms to strike interior NE since 1940. Preliminary score is 5.63

Contest # 2 - Day One Leader Board

Based on Sunday/s snowfall data from CDUS41 bulletins.

Donald Rosenfeld
donsutherland1
Raven
weathafella
shanabe
herb@maws
wxfixer
mitchel volk
TQ
ilibov
DAROONEY
edhoffman503

Contest # 2 - Early Obs

The heavy snowfall over IAD / DCA / BWI earlier today was missed by all forecasters. PNS from LWX reported 2.9" at DCA with IAD and BWI each picking up 4.5". SN:H2O about 8:1 in the DC area...~10:1 at BWI.

Forecast soundings had depicted a relatively deep layer from ~1500 to 3500' AGL where the temperature was right at 0°C. 85H WAA ordinarily would have pushed the temperature trace to above freezing causing the snow to melt. Add to that the SE SFC wind with temperature at or slightly above 32°F should have spelled doom for snowfall...as well.

Strong UVM associated with the passage of the diffluent mid-level trof could have been reponsible for the dynamic cooling that keep the precipitation frozen all the way to the ground.

Contest # 2 - The Forecasts

Forecasters: 12
New: 3
Veterans: 9

Always good to see new forecasters along with the old hands. Good luck to all.


The consensus heavy snow axis runs from MDT - BGM - ISP - EWR - MDT with a max of 6" at ABE.

All individual forecasts have been posted to the NEWxSFC web site. Follow the link to 'Latest Forecasts.' The forecasts are ranked from minimum to maximum storm total snowfall (STP) for all stations.

Minimum STP: 22.45" - Donald Rosenfeld
Maximum STP: 116" - edhoffman503
Average STP: 58.95"
Median STP: 52.75"
10th percentile: 43.1"
90th percentile: 86.1"

Verification snowfall amounts will be posted Tuesday evening. They are considered preliminary and subject to change / challenge for 24 hours.

Contest # 2 - Call for Forecasts

The flat wave under-cutting the long wave ridge along 80W is expected to gin-up fair to good snowfalls across the northern M-A and SNE this weekend. Since beggars can/t be choosers this winter…this storm/s on deck for Contest #2.

Entry Deadline: Saturday, 24 February 2007 @ 10:30 PM EST.

Verification begins 12:01 AM EST Sunday, 25 February 2007 and ends 11:59 PM EST Tuesday, 27 February 2007.

Your forecast must be entered via the Contest/s web site. Follow the link to ‘Enter Storm Forecast.’

Forecasters will need to register once before entering, even if they were registered last year. Registration is simple, requiring only a user name and password. If you provide a valid e-mail address, a copy of your forecast will be sent to you immediately after your entry is submitted. Please ensure your browser is enabled to accept first-party cookies.

All forecasts will be posted to the NE_Wx Google Group by the Contest Administrator before 11 PM EST Saturday, February 24, 2007 and to the Contest/s web site by Sunday evening.

Contest updates are posted on the Contest/s web log.

The NE.Wx Snowfall Forecast Contest (NEWxSFC) is a multi-month event that continues into late March or early April. In general, contests are held whenever a decent, synoptic-scale storm rears its head and threatens at least a half-dozen forecast stations with more than nuisance snowfall amounts. Forecasters are called to post their 'storm total' snowfall predictions, on deadline, for 27 NWS / FAA observing stations scattered about New England and the Mid-Atlantic regions.

You can find the Contest Rules and additional information about Error Scoring, current monthly snowfall climatology from NCDC, daily CPC teleconnection indices, daily NESDIS N-Hemi snow cover, and NWS Daily Climate Bulletins (CDUS41) by simply pointing your browser @ NEWxSFC