9th Annual 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest

CALL FOR FORECASTS

Deadline: Monday...30 November...2009 @ 11:59 PM EST

Forecast the season-total snowfall for 25 stations from RDU to CAR.

Visit the Contest's website to enter your forecast. Follow the link from 'Enter Season-total Forecast.'

As always...there/re no costs...fees...or annoying requests for personal information to enter.

NE.Wx/s annual ‘Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest is your absolute best...biggest...and probably ONLY chance to be recognized for your long-range forecasting acumen; a recognition you so richly deserve.

Not only that...but if you win the Contest...you get a copy of "The Snow Booklet"...by Nolan J. Doesken and Arthur Judson or "New England Weather New England Climate"...by Gregory Zielinski and Barry Keim delivered right to your front door.

What other incentive could you possibly want to enter the Contest ?

How about F-R-E-E shipping?  DONE!
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Forecast element: sum-total season snowfall @ each station
Forecast period: December 1, 2009 through March 31, 2010
Verification: NWS preliminary climate reports (CLM or F6)
Error statistic: total absolute error [Σ abs(forecast - observed)]
Deadline: Monday...30 November...2009 @ 11:59 PM EST
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The reigning NE.Wx ‘Season-Total’ Snowfall Forecasting Champ-een is TQ.
Last year/s forecast summary and final results here.

The Contest is open to any and all of the following:
Amateur and professional forecasters; broadcasters with or without trained Seals; weather-biz types and wanna-bees; wish-casters...astro-meteorologists...and other classes of dreamers; Pollyannas or Cassandras; registered Nostradamusians; non-violent megalomaniacs; woolly-bear caterpillars or their agents; pest detectives...NE.Wx Usenet NG or GoogleGroup regulars and lurkers...refugees from EUSWx...StormVista...Golden Snowball...energy sectarians...and meteorologists.

Trolls...goats...hat3-lsiters...and psests need not apply.

Winter '09 / '10 - Too Much...Too Soon?

How much longer can the current flow regime support 'Nor-easters R-Us'?

Full-latitide mean trof axis INVOF 80°W
Bagginess @5H
Cyclogenesis off the SE coast
Crashing AO currently @-2.535 (-4.87 index delta past 30 days)

All good things must come to an end...to coin phrase. Forecasters must always face facts...flow regimes don/t last forever.

What are the realistic chances the current pattern continues deep into winter?  Is this too much...too soon?

Winter '09 / '10 - WSI - October Update

Dr. Todd Crawford - seasonal forecaster:

"The WSI winter forecast for December through February shows below-normal temperatures across the eastern and southern United States, with above-normal temperatures across the northwestern half of the country.

""Recent changes in Pacific Ocean temperatures along with other factors, such as reduced solar flux, have combined to produce a favorable environment for a cold winter in the eastern U.S. this year...

""Confidence in the cold winter forecast will increase further if snow cover builds rapidly at higher latitudes during October. Our current forecast indicates a relatively benign start to winter, followed by a rather active and cold January and February."

"In December, WSI sees the monthly breakdown as:
Northeast - Warmer than normal

"In January, WSI forecasts:
Northeast - Colder than normal"

Reuters
PRWeb

Winter '09 / '10 - October Snowfall Records - Update

Image courtesy HAMweather

Winter '09 / '10 - October Snowfall Records

From NWS Public Information Statements (PNS)...

...RECORD DAILY MAXIMUM SNOWFALL SET AT BINGHAMTON NY...

A RECORD SNOWFALL OF 1.2 INCHES WAS SET AT BINGHAMTON NY YESTERDAY (10/15). THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF A TRACE SET IN 1995.

...RECORD DAILY MAXIMUM SNOWFALL SET AT BINGHAMTON NY...

A RECORD SNOWFALL OF 0.8 INCH(ES) WAS SET AT BINGHAMTON NY YESTERDAY (10/16). THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 0.5 SET IN 1982.

...DAILY SNOWFALL RECORD SET AT ALBANY...

ON FRIDAY...OCTOBER 16...2009...A TRACE OF SNOW WAS RECORDED IN ALBANY AT 830 AM EDT. THIS IS THE FIRST RECORDED SNOWFALL EVER ON THE DATE OF OCTOBER 16...WITH SNOWFALL RECORDS GOING BACK TO 1884.

...RECORD DAILY MAXIMUM SNOWFALL SET AT BRIDGEPORT CT...

A RECORD SNOWFALL OF TRACE INCH(ES) WAS SET AT BRIDGEPORT CT TODAY.THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 0 SET IN 2001.

...RECORD DAILY MAXIMUM SNOWFALL SET AT WORCESTER MA...

A TOTAL OF 1.4 INCHES OF SNOW FELL AT WORCESTER AIRPORT ON FRIDAY. THIS SETS A RECORD FOR SNOWFALL ON OCTOBER 16. THIS IS THE FIRST TIME THAT SNOW FELL ON THIS DATE SINCE RECORDS BEGAN IN THE WORCESTER AREA..DATING BACK TO 1892.

THIS EARLY SNOW IS NOT THE EARLIEST ON WORCESTERS (sic) RECORD. THE EARLIEST MEASURABLE SNOWFALL WAS 0.4 INCHES WHICH OCCURRED ON OCTOBER 8 1988. THE HEAVIEST OCTOBER SNOW WAS 7.5 INCHES THAT OCCURRED ON OCTOBER 10 1979.

...RECORD DAILY MAXIMUM SNOWFALL SET AT HARTFORD CT...

A TRACE OF SNOW FELL AT BRADLEY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT IN WINDSOR LOCKS ON FRIDAY. THIS SETS A RECORD FOR SNOWFALL FOR OCTOBER 16. THIS IS THE FIRST TIME SNOW FELL ON THIS DATE SINCE RECORDS BEGAN IN 1905.

Ever wonder why the NWS tolerates poor grammar and spelling in the statements its employees make to the public?

Winter '09 / '10 - NHEMI Snowcover mid-October - Update

Snow anomaly chart shown above was produced 14-OCT...two days before the on-going...record-breaking snowfall over the forecast area.

The large spike in mid-October snowcover is not unprecedented...altho it/s been absent in recent years.

More snowcover charts here.

Previous update here.

Northeast snowcover map (VT 17-OCT-09) courtesy NOHRSC.

Global snowcover anomaly map (VT 16-OCT-09) courtesy Rutgers Global Snow Lab

Winter '09 / '10 - Record-setting Early Snowfall - NY

"The storm that brought an early snowfall to parts of the Ithaca area on Thursday and Friday set a record for the earliest snowfall of 1 inch or more.

"The previous record for an early snowfall exceeding 1 inch was Oct. 17, 1970 when 4 inches of snow fell in the Ithaca area."

The Ithaca Journal

Winter '09 / '10 - Planalytics - October Update

Jim Rouiller - Meteorologist:

"An early and cold start to winter and a milder finish, with the potential for early snowpack in Canada to intensify the cold air sweeping into the United States.

"Into January, the jet stream associated with El Niño will make the South the dominant player in the U.S. weather pattern.

"In January the North Atlantic Oscillation will be negative, which can mean periodic shots of very cold air and establish a storm trend, which means a higher snowstorm threat."

Reuters

Last month/s Planalytics outlook here.

Winter '09 / '10 - Unseasonably Heavy Snowfall...High Wind Bring Chaos to Poland

"At least four Polish people were killed as the first snowstorms of the winter blew through central Europe, toppling trees, severing power lines and disrupting energy supplies.

"...700,000 people were left without electricity on Wednesday night, fallen trees blocked roads and rail tracks and huge waves damaged a pier at the Baltic resort of Sopot."

"In Ukraine, pipelines that carry about a fifth of Russian oil exports to Europe shut down after storms caused electricity shortages at pumping stations, affecting supplies to Hungary, Slovakia and the Czech Republic.

"There was mixed news for skiers: while Austria’s Alps recorded its biggest October snowfall in 25 years..."

More...

Winter '09 / '10 - October's ENSO Outlook

From The International Research Institute for Climate and Society

"The set of dynamical and statistical model forecasts issued during late September and early October 2009 are in general agreement of maintaining El Niño conditions through the end of 2009, although the magnitude differs among models. At the time of preparing this, the SST observations in the NINO3.4 region indicate weak El Niño conditions, with an area-averaged weekly anomaly of 0.7 C. Current forecasts and observations indicate a probability of about 90% for maintaining weak to moderate El Niño conditions through the end of the year."

Majority of the models suggest +ENSO reaching moderate strength this winter...fading to weak at the beginning of meteorological spring.

More...