Winter '09 / '10 - October's ENSO Outlook

From The International Research Institute for Climate and Society

"The set of dynamical and statistical model forecasts issued during late September and early October 2009 are in general agreement of maintaining El Niño conditions through the end of 2009, although the magnitude differs among models. At the time of preparing this, the SST observations in the NINO3.4 region indicate weak El Niño conditions, with an area-averaged weekly anomaly of 0.7 C. Current forecasts and observations indicate a probability of about 90% for maintaining weak to moderate El Niño conditions through the end of the year."

Majority of the models suggest +ENSO reaching moderate strength this winter...fading to weak at the beginning of meteorological spring.

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