Winter '09 / '10 - How Much for Balmer?

Frank Roylance...staff writer for the Baltimore Sun...also interviewed AccuWx/s Chief Meteorologist Joe Bastardi...who offered up additional details about what's in store for Baltimore this winter.

"Maryland is in for the coldest, snowiest winter we've seen since the memorable - and snow-choked - winter of 2002-2003.

"A "fading" El Niño, and a shift to a warm phase of the "Pacific Decadal Oscillation" will combine with "other factors," Joe Bastardi said, to shift the worst of this winter's weather from the Midwest, where it was concentrated last winter, to the mid-Atlantic states.

"Twenty-five inches at BWI, and 2.7 degrees below normal," he said, placing his bets on the season's total snowfall at the airport and the average temperature for the winter at BWI.

"Among the "other factors" he takes into account, in addition to El Niño and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, are the prevailing weather conditions and how they compare with past winters - winter analogs. Looking at those, he sees similarities between this year's patterns and those that prevailed during the winters of 1976-77, which was very cold, and 1977-78, which saw 34 inches of snow at BWI.

"He also saw a resemblance to the winter of 1957-58, which brought 43 inches of snow to Baltimore and very wintry weather in February and March. Another "analog" he includes in his "package" is the winter of 1965-66, with 32 inches of snow."

Average season-total snowfall @BWI: 21.4" AccuWx/s expecting 17% more snow than normal.  Last year/s forecast was 20" with 9" observed.

BWI Monthly Snowfall Climo (58-year NCDC period of record)
DEC: 3.3"
JAN: 6.1"
FEB: 7.1"
MAR: 3.6"

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