Winter '09 / '10 - AccuWeather - Update 2

Joe Bastardi...Chief Meteorologist:

"...winter will be centered over an area from Maryland to the Carolinas as a fading El Niño results in the stormiest and coldest pattern in recent years.

"The areas that will be hit hardest this winter by cold, snowy weather will be from southern New England through the Appalachians and mid-Atlantic, including the Carolinas. Areas from Washington D.C. to Charlotte have had very little snowfall the past two winters. This season these areas could end up with above-normal snowfall.

"Northern areas, including Buffalo, Boston and Maine, have been hit hard the past couple of winters, but will see normal snowfall with temperatures slightly below normal this winter.

"Cities such as New York, Boston and Philadelphia could get up to 75 percent of their total snowfall in two or three big storms."

This is a classic +ENSO / -Arctic Oscillation (AO) forecast with main precipitation track across the southern tier and Miller 'A' (.pdf) nor'easters up the east coast...although it does not appear to be a good fit with the accompanying temperature outlook...which matches closely to either a positive or neutral AO state.

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