Winter '20 / '21 - Snow Storm #4: Preliminary STP Verification

Accumulation-weighted SN:H20 (SLR)

Preliminary verification of storm-total snowfalls for THU (18-FEB-21) through SAT (20-FEB-21) from CDUS41 (CLI) ... CXUS51 (CF6) ... METARs ... and PNS bulletins.  Spotty coverage and reporting.

HYA STP estimated from a vicinity report within 2.5 SM of the station carried by the BOXPNS bulletin.  H2O value derived from METAR precipitation groups 7nnnn (24 hour) ... 6nnnn (6 hour) ... and Pnnnn (1 hour).

SBY STP estimated based on METAR 6-hour precipitation report of '60006' and 10:1 SLR.

CON/s Daily Climate Bulletin on THU reported 0.01" liquid but no snowfall total.  Estimated snowfall of 0.1" by applying 10:1 SLR.

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SLR not reported for some stations with measurable snowfall b/c significant liquid and / or freezing precipitation also occurred during the verification period.

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Stations observing at least 0.1":  23 (85%)

Given a station had measurable snowfall; stations observing at least ...
4" - 12 (44%)
6" - 2 (7%)
MAX:  7.6"

MAX snow melt-water (minimum SLR 8:1)
ABE:  0.55"
BDR:  0.51"
HYA:  0.36"

MAX precipitation (frozen + freezing + liquid):
ORF:  1.50"
RDU:  1.20"
RIC:  0.91"

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Winter '20 / '21 - Snow Storm #4: The Forecasts!

Barton ... VT
Main train summit (1886)

Rookie      3
Intern      -
Journey      -
Senior      11
GOVT      1
PWSP      1
TOT      16

We welcome Rookie petenotpetrock who's issuing his first NEWxSFC forecast.

Forecasters rank-ordered by ascending storm-total precipitation (STP)
BLUE ==> 1st quartile
RED ==> 4th quartile
WHITE STP cells fall between the 1st and 4th quartiles

Heaviest snowfall (+5") consensus along and to the right of BDL - ORH - BOS - PVD - ISP - JFK - EWR - MDT - ABE - BDL.

Lollypop expected at ABE (7")

All three teleconnections were photographed getting onto a plane destined for Cancún ... Mexico.

Forecasters' station-by-station forecasts posted to the Contest/s web site ...
http://www.newx-forecasts.com/

Direct link to the table of forecasts ...
http://www.newx-forecasts.com/NEWxSFC_22/storms/storm4_forecasts_18FEB21.htm

Winter '20 / '21 - Snow Storm #4: RAW forecasts

Portland ... ME
28-JAN-1886

Entry No. 1785
Forecaster = petenotpetrock
Time = 2/17/2021 6:57:51 AM
CAR = 3
BGR = 4
PWM = 6
CON = 6
BTV = 5
BOS = 4
HYA = 3
ORH = 7
PVD = 4
BDR = 5
BDL = 6
ALB = 6
BGM = 7
ISP = 3
JFK = 3
ABE = 8
MDT = 8
PHL = 2
ACY = 2
EWR = 6
BWI = 2
IAD = 3
DCA = 1
SBY = 1
RIC = 2
ORF = 1
RDU = 0
Comments =
----End of Entry----

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Winter '20 / '21 - Snow Storm #4: Call for Forecasts! - Take 2

Boston Public Garden
25-FEB-62

Too few stations stayed in play after Storm #4/s first Call for Forecasts on SUN.

This storm shows much more promise to have more than enough forecast stations in play to be contest-worthy.

One thing remains unchanged from - the parade of winter storms affecting the M-A and the NE with messy p-types.

Enter your forecast at the NEWxSFC/s home page at http://www.newx-forecasts.com/

Follow the top-of-page link from 'Enter Snow Storm Forecast'

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Forecast element: each station/s storm-total snowfall

Deadline for entries: 10 PM EST ... WED ... 17-FEB-21
Verification begins: 12:01 AM EST ... THU ... 18-FEB-21
Verification ends: 11:59 PM EST the day when snow stops accumulating

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Winter '20 / '21 - Snow Storm #4: Call for Forecasts!

BWI
Columbia Ave.  (13-FEB-1899)

UPDATE 4:30 PM EST ... MON ...15-FEB-21

Not happenin' ...

UPDATE 10:45 AM EST ... MON ...15-FEB-21
Trend not being very friendly ... 

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Original post (5:13 PM EST ... SUN ...14-FEB-21)

Contest-worthy snows expected along the NW edge of the precipitation shield as the next in a parade of winter storm slides east across the northern M-A then off the SNE coast.  Messy p-type forecasts downstate.

Enter your forecast at the NEWxSFC/s home page at http://www.newx-forecasts.com/

Follow the top-of-page link from 'Enter Snow Storm Forecast'

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Forecast element: each station/s storm-total snowfall

Deadline for entries: 10 PM EST ... MON ... 15-FEB-21
Verification begins: 12:01 AM EST ... TUE ... 16-FEB-21
Verification ends: 11:59 PM EST ... TUE ... 16-FEB-21

You also get the chance to see how well your forecast stacks up against NWS Eastern Region Weather Forecast Offices. Turns out they/ve been fairly easy to beat!

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Winter '20 / '21 - 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest: JAN Totals

Mass General Hospital (06-FEB-61)

UPDATE 14-FEB-21 4 PM EST:  corrected JAN total for EWR ... NYC ... BDR and JAN Forecast Station Highlights section.

h/t Roger Smith

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JAN-21 snowfall summary by forecast station.

Rank-ordered descending by percent of monthly period-of-record-normal
(%JAN)

Green ==> 4th quartile
White ==> Inter-quartile range
Red ==> 1st quartile

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JAN Forecast Station Highlights
3 stations with above normal monthly snowfall

BTV
4.1" (21%) above JAN normal

ORF
0.2" (6%) above JAN normal

SBY
0.2" (6%) above JAN normal

Biggest Losers
PWM ... CON (less than 35% JAN P-O-R-N)

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Season-Total-to-Date

JAN P-O-R-N contributes 279" (30%) toward the season-total snowfall (D-J-F-M) of 929".

JAN-21 observed snowfall:  212" (-44% below P-O-R-N; 17% of season-total snowfall)

Image courtesy NOHRSC @ http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/nsa/

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Teleconnections

AO / NAO / PNA data
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/daily.index.ascii

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DEC Totals
https://newxsfc.blogspot.com/2021/01/winter-20-21-season-total-snowfall.html

Winter '20 / '21 - Snow Storm Contest: Interim Standings #1

After three snow storm forecasting contests ... under the ‘two-thirds’ rule … forecasters who have entered at least TWO forecasts are included in interim standings #1.

Complete interim statistics table and chart at the Contest/s web site HERE (direct link)
Forecaster statistics for Winter '20 / '21 contest snow storms HERE (direct link)

Don Sutherland has been identified incorrectly as the Chief 'Regular Season' forecaster for the '20 / '21 season when that honor belongs to Brad Yehl.  We regret the error and apologize to Brad for the oversight.

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SUMSQ errors for each contest snow storm are normalized (i.e., standardized) with a 'Z-score' ... then averaged to compute the standings. If a forecaster has issued forecasts for more than two-thirds of all snow storm contests ... then Z-scores from their 'best two-thirds' forecasts are used to calculate the Interim and Final standings.  Similar idea as dropping the lowest test score before computing the final grade.

Winter '20 / '21 - Snow Storm #3: FINAL Results

Complete forecaster verification table and the FINAL Results / Storm Summary available at NEWxSFC/s home page.

SUMSQ:  sum of square error (")
SUMSQ Z:  Z-score
STP:  storm total precipitation error (")
TAE:  total absolute error (")
AAE:  average absolute error (")
(#):  category rank

Forecast by Observed Snowfall Scatterplots for Top Forecasts
Forecast/s dotted blue line below (above) the Observed snowfall/s solid red line ==> under (over) forecast error.

Station by Station Comparison of Top Forecasters

Winter '20 / '21 - Snow Storm #3: Preliminary STP Verification

Accumulation-weighted SN:H20 (SLR)

Preliminary verification of storm-total snowfalls for SUN and MON from CDUS41 (CLI) ... CXUS51 (CF6) ... METARs ... and PNS bulletins.  Excellent coverage and reporting.

HYA STP estimated by applying inverse distance weighting interpolation of three timely reports within 3.5 SM of the station carried by the PNS bulletin from BOX.

SBY STP estimated based on one report from the forecast station/s county (Wicomico) carried by AKQ/s PNS bulletin.

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SLR not reported for some stations with measurable snowfall b/c significant liquid and / or freezing precipitation also occurred during the verification period.

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Winter '20 / '21 - Snow Storm #3: The Forecasts!

NYC
Summit Hotel on Lexington Ave
07-FEB-67

Forecasters
Rookie      2
Intern      -
Journey      -
Senior      18
GOVT      1
PWSP      1
TOT      22

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Forecasters rank-ordered by ascending storm-total precipitation (STP)

BLUE ==> 1st quartile
RED ==> 4th quartile
WHITE STP cells fall between the 1st and 4th quartiles

Heaviest snowfall (+5") consensus along and to the right of ISP - BDR - ORH - BOS - HYA - ISP
Lollypop expected at PVD (5.8")

Two out of three teleconnections on vacay.

Forecasters' station-by-station forecasts posted to the Contest/s web site here.
http://www.newx-forecasts.com/

Direct link to the table of forecasts here.
http://www.newx-forecasts.com/NEWxSFC_22/storms/storm3_forecasts_07FEB21.htm

Winter '20 / '21 - Snow Storm #1: NESIS

The Northeast Snowfall Impact Scale (NESIS)

 

Winter '20 / '21 - Snow Storm #3: RAW Forecasts

ACY
1928

HERE

Winter '20 / '21 - Snow Storm #3: Call for Forecasts!

BOS
04-FEB-40

Took a while for this winter to get a'goin' but we're underway with the second contest-worthy snow storm in a week/s time.

The fast-moving Miller 'A' nor'easter on the menu progged to race from the Gulf of Mexico toward the VA Capes then up the northeast coast ducking just under the 40/70 Benchmark on its way out to sea.

Enter your forecast at the NEWxSFC/s home page at http://www.newx-forecasts.com/

Follow the top-of-page link from 'Enter Snow Storm Forecast'

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Forecast element: each station/s storm-total snowfall
Deadline for entries: 10:00 PM EST ... SAT ... 06-FEB-21
Verification begins: 12:01 AM EST ... SUN ... 07-FEB-21
Verification ends: 11:59 PM EST on the day when flakes stop accumulating.

You also get the chance to see how well your forecast stacks up against NWS Eastern Region Weather Forecast Offices. Turns out they/ve been fairly easy to beat!

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If you are issuing your first forecast this winter ... or you entered the 'season-total' forecast contest ... you/ll need to create an account -- user name / password / valid e-mail (if you want a copy of your forecast sent to your Inbox).

The forecasting contest for Snow Storm #3 may be cancelled prior to the deadline if at least 6-to-8 stations are unlikely to observe at least a 4" storm-total snowfall.

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As always ... there/s no cost ... no fee ... no advertising ... or annoying requests for personal information to enter a forecast. It/s just a fun exercise for winter wx enthusiasts to see who can make the best synoptic-scale snowfall forecast.

Winter '20 / '21 - Snow Storm #2: FINAL Results

Complete forecaster verification table and the FINAL Results / Storm Summary available at NEWxSFC/s home page.

SUMSQ:  sum of square error (")
SUMSQ Z:  Z-score
STP:  storm total precipitation error (")
TAE:  total absolute error (")
AAE:  average absolute error (")
(#):  category rank

Forecast by Observed Snowfall Scatterplots for Top Forecasts
Forecast/s dotted blue line below (above) the Observed snowfall/s solid red line ==> under (over) forecast error.

Station by Station Comparison of Top Forecasters

Winter '20 / '21 - Coastal Teaser #3

UPDATE:  05-FEB-21 @ 9:45 AM EST 

No consensus among the overnight NWP model runs whether enough stations are in play to warrant a contest-worthy snow storm.

Will continue to evaluate through the 00z run this evening.

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Originally posted 04-FEB-21 @ 6:49 PM EST

Hot on the heels of this week's heavy snowfall event looms a full-latitude ... mid-level trof poised to excite a Miller 'A' nor'easter and the threat of a contest-worthy snow storm over the forecast area.

Latest NWP guidance points toward accumulating snow beginning over southern portions of the forecast area early SUN AM and continuing into MON as the storm scrapes along the coast. Without a closed LOW at 5H this go'round ... a long duration event is not expected.

Should events unfold as advertised currently ...
Call for Forecasts:  FRI ... 05-FEB-21
Deadline for entries:  10 PM EST ... SAT ... 06-FEB-21
Verification beginning:  12:01 AM EST ... SUN ... 07-FEB-21
Verification ending: 11:59 PM EST the day when flakes stop accumulating

Snow Storm #3 comes about seven days after Snow Storm #2.  In its wake ... the progs rocket the AO toward neutral and give the PNA a pump.  Should the cycle continue ... what's in store for Presidents Day 2021? 🤔

Winter '20 / '21 - Snow Storm #2: Preliminary STP Verification

Accumulation-weighted SN:H2O

 UPDATE:  FRI ... 05-FEB-21
Additional measurable snowfall associated with Snow Storm #2 was observed on the 4th at CAR (1.7") ... CON (0.1") ... BTV (0.1") ... BOS (0.1").

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Originally posted THU ... 04-FEb-21 @6:49 PM EST

Preliminary verification of storm-total snowfalls for SUN through WED from CDUS41 (CLI) ... CXUS51 (CF6) ... METARs ... and PNS bulletins.  Excellent coverage and reporting.

HYA STP based on METAR's present weather and hourly P-group data.

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SLR not reported for some stations with measurable snowfall b/c significant liquid and / or freezing precipitation also occurred during the verification period.

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Stations observing at least 0.1":  25 (93%)

Given a station had measurable snowfall; stations observing at least ...
4" - 18 (67%)
8" - 12 (44%)
12" - 7 (26%)
18" - 2 (7%)
24" - 1 (4%)

MAX snow melt-water (minimum SLR 8:1)
ABE:  2"
EWR:  1.66"
JFK:  1.41"

MAX liquid precipitation (frozen + freezing + liquid):
ABE:  2"
EWR:  1.66"
ACY:  1.59"

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New daily record(s)
31-JAN-21
BWI - 3.8" (3.7"; 1985)

01-FEB-21
ABE - 22.4" (7.2"; 1957)
BDR - 15.2" (4.4"; 1957)
EWR - 15.1" (7.5"; 1957)
JFK - 11.9" (1.7"; 2011)
BDL - 11.7" (5.9"; 2011)
ISP - 10.3" (0.6"; 2011)
BGM - 4.8" (4.3"; 2011)
IAD - 2.5" (1.5"; 1966)

Storm total snowfall
Image courtesy NOHRSC

SFC analysis:  03z ... 02-FEB-21
Image courtesy DOC / NOAA / NWS / NCEP / WPC

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Please report any errors in Comments along with a link to the correct data.
FINAL results expected NLT FRI evening.

Winter '20 / '21 - Snow Storm #2: The Forecasts!

Forecasters
Rookie      4
Intern      -
Journey      -
Senior      15
GOVT      1
PWSP      1
TOT      21

NEWxSFC welcomes Rookie Forecasters Auntie ... Kmc134 ... and snowtoriousBIG.

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Forecasters rank ordered by ascending storm-total precipitation (STP)

BLUE ==> 1st quartile
RED ==> 4th quartile
WHITE STP cells fall between the 1st and 4th quartiles

  

Heaviest snowfall (+12") consensus along and to the right of MDT - ABE - ORH - BDR - JFK - EWR - PHL - MDT.
Lollypop expected at MDT (14.6")

Teleconnections more-or-less playing their 'expected' roles (CORR:  01-FEB-20 PNA)

Forecasters' station-by-station forecasts posted to the Contest/s web site here.
http://www.newx-forecasts.com/

Direct link to the table of forecasts here.
http://www.newx-forecasts.com/NEWxSFC_22/storms/storm2_forecasts_31JAN21.htm

Winter '20 / '21 - RAW Forecasts

 here

28-JAN-1922

 

Winter '20 / '21 - Snow Storm #2: Call for Forecasts!

Six long weeks after the start to NEWx/s 22nd Annual 'Snow Storm' Forecasting Contest ... Snow Storm #2 finally comes a'calling.

Amplifying mid-level flow ... shortening wavelength ... hi-latitude blocking ... Miller 'B' mid-latitude cyclogenesis ... Arctic wedge ... mixed-precipitation type issues ... and a long-duration nor'easter just like days of yore.

Even the Mid-Atlantic and a long stretch of the I-95 corridor are in play this go'round.

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Enter your forecast at the NEWxSFC/s home page at http://www.newx-forecasts.com/
Follow the top-of-page link from 'Enter Snow Storm Forecast'

Forecast element: each station/s storm-total snowfall
Deadline for entries: 10:00 PM EST ... SAT ... 30-JAN-21
Verification begins: 12:01 AM EST ... SUN ... 31-JAN-21
Verification ends: 11:59 PM EST on the day when flakes stop accumulating.

You also get the chance to see how well your forecast stacks up against NWS Eastern Region Weather Forecast Offices. Turns out they/ve been fairly easy to beat!

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If you are issuing your first forecast this winter ... or you entered the 'season-total' forecast contest ... you/ll need to create an account -- user name / password / valid e-mail (if you want a copy of your forecast sent to your Inbox).

The snowfall forecasting contest for Snow Storm #2 may be cancelled prior to the deadline if at least six-to-eight stations are unlikely to observe at least a 4" storm-total snowfall.

---
As always ... there/s no cost ... no fee ... no advertising ... or annoying requests for personal information to enter a forecast. It/s just a fun exercise for winter wx enthusiasts to see who can make the best synoptic-scale snowfall forecast.

Winter '20 / '21 - Coastal Teaser #2

Long-duration and ginormous Miller 'B' storm complex beginning to loom large in the window as an otherwise disappointing JAN comes to a close.

Contest-worthy nor'easters have been in short supply of late so this is a welcome development.

Latest NWP guidance points toward snow beginning to accumulate over southern portions of the forecast area early SUN AM and continuing through the first few days of FEB over northern stations.

Should events unfold as advertised currently ...
Call for Forecasts:  FRI ... 29-JAN-21
Deadline for entries:  10 PM EST ... SAT ... 30-JAN-21
Verification beginning:  12:01 AM EST ... SUN 31-JAN-21
Verification ending: 11:59 PM EST the day when flakes stop accumulating 

Could be the start of an hyper-active period as heights progged to rise over the Pole and PNA region while AO remains below zero and the displaced PV drifts toward Greenland ...

Winter '20 / '21 - VCP 32: Another Month At Least

 

Winter '20 / '21 - 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest: DEC Totals

DEC-20 snowfall summary by forecast station.
Rank ordered descending by percent of monthly period-of-record-normal (P-O-R-N).

---
Green ==> 75th - 100th percentile
White ==> less than 75th and greater than 25th percentile (inter-quartile range)
Red ==> 0 - 25th percentile

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DEC Forecast Station Highlights
15 stations above normal monthly snowfall
5 stations at least 200% of monthly normal

BGM
30" above normal
68% of its normal season-total snowfall

CON
53% of its normal season-total snowfall

ALB
47% of its normal season-total snowfall

Biggest Losers
RDU ... DCA ... ACY ... and ORF observed less than 10% of normal monthly snowfall

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Season-Total-to-Date

DEC P-O-R-N contributes 203.3" (22%) toward the season-total snowfall (D-J-F-M) of 929".
DEC-20 observed snowfall:  292" (44% above P-O-R-N; 31% of season-total snowfall)

Image courtesy NOHRSC @ http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/nsa/

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Teleconnections

AO / NAO / PNA data

Winter '20 / '21 - Coastal Teaser #1

UPDATE:  02-JAN-21 @ 9 AM EST
Not happenin' ...

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UPDATE:  01-JAN-21 @ 6:41 PM EST

Today/s 12z / 18z progs suggest too few stations in play for a contest-worthy snow storm.

Will evaluate 00z / 06z runs just in case ...

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Originally posted:  31-DEC-20 @ 6:41 PM EST

Cyclogenesis progged early this weekend in the Gulf of Mexico on the trailing end of a cold front attending FRI/s storm moving NE through the Mid-West ... Great Lakes ... and New England may turn into a long duration contest-worthy snow storm for the northern half of the forecast area come SUN.

Should the present trend in NWP output continue ...

Call for Forecasts:  FRI ... 01-JAN-21
Deadline for entries:  10 PM EST ... SAT ... 02-JAN-21
Verification period:  12:01 AM EST ... SUN ... 03-JAN-21 till flakes stop accumulating

Watch this space ...

Winter '20 / '21 - Snow Storm #1: FINAL Results

Forecaster verification table and the FINAL Results / Storm summary available at NEWxSFC/s home page.

SUMSQ:  sum of square error (")
SUMSQ Z:  Z-score
STP:  storm total precipitation error (")
TAE:  total absolute error (")
AAE:  average absolute error (")
(#):  category rank

Forecast by Observed Snowfall Scatterplots for Top Forecasts
Forecast/s dotted blue line below (above) the Observed snowfall/s solid red line ==> under (over) forecast bias.

Station by Station Comparison of Top Forecasters

Winter '20 / '21 - Snow Storm #1: Preliminary STP Verification

Accumulation-weighted SN:H2O

Preliminary verification of storm-total snowfalls for WED and THU from CDUS41 (CLI) ... CXUS51 (CF6) ... METARs ... and PNS bulletins.  Excellent coverage and reporting.

HYA STP estimated by applying inverse distance weighting interpolation of five timely reports within 3 SM of the station carried by the BOSPNS bulletin.

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SLR not reported for some stations with measurable snowfall b/c significant liquid and / or freezing precipitation also occurred during the verification period.

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Stations observing >= 0.1"  20 (74%)

Given a station had measurable snowfall; stations observing at least ...
4" - 16 (76%)
8" - 11 (53%)
12" - 7 (33%)
18" - 3 (14%)
24" - 2 (10%)

MAX snow melt-water (minimum SLR 10:1)
BGM:  2.8"
ALB:  2.0"
BOS:  1.3"

MAX liquid precipitation (frozen + freezing + liquid):
BGM:  2.8"
ACY:  2.06"
ALB:  2.0"

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New daily record(s)
16-DEC-20
BDR - 6.5" (2"; 1970)
ISP - 5.7" (1.5"; 1995)
JFK - 3.8" (1.3"; 1981)

17-DEC-20
BGM - 26.4" (9.8"; 1973)
CON - 24.2" (8.6"; 1970)
ALB - 19.7" (11.1"; 1970)
BOS - 12.7" (6.4"; 2013)
ORH - 10.5" (9.9"; 1970)
BDL - 7.8" (6.5"; 2016)
PVD - 6.4" (4"; 1961)
EWR - 5.9" (3"; 2016)
JFK - 3.4" (3"; 2016)

Storm total snowfall
Image courtesy NOHRSC

SFC analysis:  09z ... 17-DEC-20
Image courtesy DOC / NOAA / NWS / NCEP / WPC

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Please report any errors in Comments along with a link to the correct data.
FINAL results expected NLT SAT evening.

Winter '20 / '21 - Snow Storm #1: The Forecasts!

MDT
07-FEB-67

Forecasters
Rookie     2
Intern       1
Journey    1
Senior      15
GOVT     1
PWSP      1
TOT        21

NEWxSFC welcomes Rookie Forecasters NJTom and Leigh Rosenthal along with our returning veterans.  Congratulations to Briannavaught for her promotion to Intern Forecaster and kc2dux to Journeyman Forecaster.

Don Sutherland retains his title as Chief Forecaster this winter b/c there was only one 'contest-worthy' snow storm last winter -- minimum three storms required -- to hold a valid contest and declare a winner.

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Forecasters ranked by ascending storm-total precipitation (STP)

BLUE ==> 25th percentile
RED ==> 75th percentile
WHITE STP cells range between the 25th and 75th percentile 

Read more »