Winter '09 / '10 - Larry Cosgrove
Preeminent synoptic meteorologist Larry Cosgrove discusses current flow regimes... patterns...trends and their potential impact on the coming winter in his latest newsletter.
"Since we have not yet settled into calendar autumn, it is unwise to make an absolute prediction for the upcoming winter season. But the character of the El Niño Southern Oscillation, which will dominate the course of weather in upcoming months, seems to be visible.
"Unlike a "typical El Niño" (if indeed there is such a thing), there have been NO signs of a true split flow in the polar westerlies. The northern branch has been dominant, even showing signs of buckling with Rex and Omega formations in Alaska, Canada, and Greenland (although the recent development of a North American theater +AO signature is a major break from the summer pattern). The fledgling lower latitude stream arises from the very warm waters adjacent to Mexico, running well south of California. This is one of the reasons that I think the Golden State will have its driest +ENSO since 1976-77, and Dixie and the East Coast are in line to get a very active "Miller A" type storm track."
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"Since we have not yet settled into calendar autumn, it is unwise to make an absolute prediction for the upcoming winter season. But the character of the El Niño Southern Oscillation, which will dominate the course of weather in upcoming months, seems to be visible.
"Unlike a "typical El Niño" (if indeed there is such a thing), there have been NO signs of a true split flow in the polar westerlies. The northern branch has been dominant, even showing signs of buckling with Rex and Omega formations in Alaska, Canada, and Greenland (although the recent development of a North American theater +AO signature is a major break from the summer pattern). The fledgling lower latitude stream arises from the very warm waters adjacent to Mexico, running well south of California. This is one of the reasons that I think the Golden State will have its driest +ENSO since 1976-77, and Dixie and the East Coast are in line to get a very active "Miller A" type storm track."
More...
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