Winter '10 / '11 - Interim Standings - #4
After six snow storms...
Under the 'two-thirds' rule...the best 'two out of three' Z-scores are used to compute the interim standings. After Snow Storm #6...your top four Z-scores were used to calculate these standings. Data used to compute the standings are posted at the Contest web site here.
Z-scores are used to standardize / normalize forecast errors for each snow storm so at the end of the season...the 'equalized' scores can be averaged.
An expanded data table with higher resolution graphics and additional measures of forecaster skill at the Contest's home page.
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Since there isn't much happening, I thought folks might be interested in the seasonal snowfall totals to date. I added ISP which is not in the seasonal comp, and estimated SBY from the storm totals (mostly storm #1).
CAR 62.0
BGR 76.9
PWM 54.6
CON 52.0
BTV 84.9
BOS 71.2
ORH 77.8
PVD 47.0
BDL 79.9
BDR 56.4
JFK 38.4
(ISP 49.9)
ALB 60.7
BGM 73.1
EWR 63.3
ACY 34.5
ABE 33.6
PHL 38.0
MDT 19.0
BWI 11.9
SBY 14.0 (est)
DCA 9.5
IAD 11.9
RIC 10.8
ORF 21.8
RDU 9.0
total 1112.2 (not incl ISP)
The general pattern of our seven forecasts so far is that across a central zone that includes PHL and ends in southern Maine, most stations have exceeded the maximum forecast (which in most cases was mine). In the south the amounts have not yet reached the lowest or second lowest forecasts with the exception of ORF which belongs with the central zoners but Ira has the highest forecast there. In the far north (incl ALB and BGM) the amounts are closer to the middle of the forecast pack and so could end up near the higher forecasts which are mostly from TQ and MV. So it would seem that it could be a close race to the finish. -- Roger Smith
I was looking at the monthly climate summaries the other day ago..too.
EWR...ORF...ACY...BDR...
NYC...are more than 200% their DEC-MAR period of record normal (PORN) after two months.
Those percentages will dwindle now that FEB (the climo max for snowfall totals in the NE and M-A) has gone four paws up.
Hard to believe the sudden and dramatic change...altho it's more in line with what you'd expect 'round here during a la Nina.
The winter reminds me a bit of 1983-84 and we all know what happened in March 1984.
Don't we?
There are also similarities to 1970-71, which went sort of limp in February then exploded again in March at least over inland New England because Ottawa and Montreal got buried on March 4th of that winter (Canadians all remember that day, our P.M. Trudeau got engaged to a woman half his age, it was a Friday, that's all I recall about it, the storm missed Toronto). It was like a 20 inch snowstorm east of Kingston. I'm thinking this year, a couple of big storms in March then back to warm.
Since NEWxSFC began back in '99...there have been nine contest-worthy snow storms in MAR.
Six years out of the 11...so there's a 55% chance for one event in any given year. 18% chance for two and a 9% chance for three storms.
Progs are now showing a shift in the storm track from 'thru the GLakes' to a track more akin to what was observed earlier in the season.
The best snowstorm I ever saw was actually in April (2-3, 1975) north of Toronto, we had 27-36 inches across the region of Simcoe County and drifts to about eight feet. That low tracked across Ohio, PA and NY and might have been contest-worthy, probably by then a contest would have been declared over. How about April 1982, there was a big storm around the 6th-7th if I recall this correctly, and it was damned cold in Ontario then. I've seen snowstorms in Ontario as late as April 25th (in 1976) and measurable snow into May (1977 which then turned out very hot).
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