CONTEST STATUS - Updated: SAT ... 14-APR-18 @ 9 PM EDT

Winter '17 / '18 - Snowfall Forecast Contests

19th Annual 'Regular Season' Snowfall Forecast Contest
- FINAL Results here
1st Place: Brad Yehl
2nd Place: Don Sutherland
3rd Place: NWS ER WFOs
HM: Herb @MAWS

17th Annual 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest
- FINAL Results here
1st Place: Don Sutherland
2nd Place: Mitchel Volk
3rd Place: Brad Yehl
Climo: 5th place

Winter '16 / '17 - Snowfall Forecast Contests
18th Annual 'Regular Season'
FINAL results here

16th Annual 'Season-total'
FINAL results here

Sunday, November 24, 2013

Winter '13 / '14 - Outlooks

Thread updated periodically as new outlooks and forecasts are issued from a variety of sources.


Since this upcoming winter season looks to be close to climatology (normal/mean appearance), the harshest period of December 23 - February 14 will likely be characterized by strong and persistent high-latitude blocking.
Whereas November and the first three weeks of December will likely have a more "up and down" or erratic character, suppressed storm tracks and strong Arctic intrusions are likely in the dead of winter.
The "January Thaw" may be short, with the potential for a fairly vast -EPO/-AO/-NAO alignment keeping colder air in play.

Climate Prediction Center 0.5 month long-lead (Last Call!)...

"...the snow in Eurasia is just one factor to be considered for predicting winter, Rogers said. In his official outlook, Rogers (Commodity Weather Group...LLC) said he expects cold early in the season with the second half of the winter milder."
"One pattern that can negate Siberian snow is an oscillation in the stratospheric circulation of winds, said Robert Allen, an assistant professor of climatology at the University of California at Riverside.
"If they don’t line up right, the snow loses its ability to trigger sweeping cold events in the temperate regions..."
"...chief meteorologist at WSI Corp. in Andover, Massachusetts, said the amount of snow falling across Eurasia has been slowing and winds might not be setting up to allow cold blast to occur."

Climate Prediction Center 1.5 month long lead...

From Weather Trends International...
"...statistics and climate index similarities suggest the Eastern U.S. winter will be similar to 1962-1963 which brought the 6th coldest January in over 118 years and copious snowfall.

"...Atlantic Accumulated Cyclone Energy index, ENSO neutral phase, 30-year cold-intensifying Pacific Decadal Oscillation Cycle and a weak 100 year solar cycle...all indicate a winter similar to 1962-1963. 
"- Nor'easters will be more frequent bringing the snowiest winter in 3 years with 35% more snow than last year and much above average.
"- Temperatures across the Eastern U.S. will trend 3-6 degrees colder than last winter making it the coldest winter in 3 years with below average temperatures.

Climate Prediction Center 2.5 month long lead...

Farmer's Almanac...


Climate Prediction Center 3.5 month long lead...

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