CONTEST STATUS - Updated: SAT ... 14-APR-18 @ 9 PM EDT

Winter '17 / '18 - Snowfall Forecast Contests

19th Annual 'Regular Season' Snowfall Forecast Contest
- FINAL Results here
1st Place: Brad Yehl
2nd Place: Don Sutherland
3rd Place: NWS ER WFOs
HM: Herb @MAWS

17th Annual 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest
- FINAL Results here
1st Place: Don Sutherland
2nd Place: Mitchel Volk
3rd Place: Brad Yehl
Climo: 5th place

Winter '16 / '17 - Snowfall Forecast Contests
18th Annual 'Regular Season'
FINAL results here

16th Annual 'Season-total'
FINAL results here

Sunday, November 24, 2013

Winter '13 / '14 - Arctic Oscillation: NOV/s Daily Index 3rd Highest on Record

The Arctic Index (AO) reached 4.317 on 16-NOV...the third highest November value for the period of record (1950 - current).  Record high of 4.544 was set in 1979 followed by 4.444 in 1995.

Does this event offer any insight into the character of the upcoming winter?
Probably not.

QBO is correlated with the strength of the Polar Vortex (PV)
QBO-W (+) ==> strong PV ==> +AO
QBO-E (-) ==> weak PV ==> -AO

QBO-2013 is currently west (+)...has probably peaked...and will likely flip toward the end of the '13 / '14 winter.
QBO was wicked east the winter of 1979-80 and had just flipped into its easterly phase NOV-95.

MEI ESNO-79 was warm and cold in 1995.  La Nada is forecast for ENSO-13.

Chart:  30-day moving averages for AO...NAO...and PNA (SEP-11 through NOV-13).
Daily index data here.

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