CONTEST STATUS - Updated: FRI ... 16-MAR-18 @ 7:40 PM EDT

Winter '17 / '18 - Snowfall Forecast Contests

19th Annual 'Regular Season'
- Interim Standings ... as of Snow Storm #6 here
- Forecaster Storm Stats ... as of Snow Storm #6 here

- Snow Storm #8
Synoptiscope in VCP32

- Snow Storm #7: 11-MAR-18
The Forecasts here
Preliminary STP verifications here

- Snow Storm #6: 07-MAR-18
FINAL Results here
Winning forecast issued by: Donald Rosenfeld

17th Annual 'Season-total'
Deadline for entries has passed
Forecasters' summary here

Winter '16 / '17 - Snowfall Forecast Contests
18th Annual 'Regular Season'
FINAL results here

16th Annual 'Season-total'
FINAL results here

Sunday, November 24, 2013

Winter '13 / '14 - Arctic Oscillation: NOV/s Daily Index 3rd Highest on Record

The Arctic Index (AO) reached 4.317 on 16-NOV...the third highest November value for the period of record (1950 - current).  Record high of 4.544 was set in 1979 followed by 4.444 in 1995.

Does this event offer any insight into the character of the upcoming winter?
Probably not.

QBO is correlated with the strength of the Polar Vortex (PV)
QBO-W (+) ==> strong PV ==> +AO
QBO-E (-) ==> weak PV ==> -AO

QBO-2013 is currently west (+)...has probably peaked...and will likely flip toward the end of the '13 / '14 winter.
QBO was wicked east the winter of 1979-80 and had just flipped into its easterly phase NOV-95.

MEI ESNO-79 was warm and cold in 1995.  La Nada is forecast for ENSO-13.

Chart:  30-day moving averages for AO...NAO...and PNA (SEP-11 through NOV-13).
Daily index data here.

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