Sunday, December 8, 2013

Winter '13 / '14 - 13th Annual 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest: Forecast Summary


Twenty-one forecasters this year including more than a few new faces.
Welcome Rookies and welcome back to NEWxSFC/s veteran forecasters.
Good to see everyone for the 13th Annual NE.Wx 'Season-total' snowfall forecast contest.

As always, a wide range of forecasts with four forecasters (19%) going under the NCDC period-of-record normal (PORN) season-total snowfall (934").

Total number of forecasts:  525
Over:  342
Under:  181
PORN:  2

Forecasts in the table below are ranked in ascending order by sum-total snowfall for all stations.


Blue cells:  <= 25th percentile
Red cells:  >= 75th percentile
Yellow cell:  Top Forecaster - Winter '12 / '13
PORN is the Period of Record Normal.

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Majority opinions for below-normal snows at ORH...BDL...BGM...ORF...and RDU.
Strong consensus (>80%) for above-normal snows at BGR...PWM...CON...BDR...ABE...and DCA.


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Prizes for 1st place have returned this winter for the 'Season-total' and 'Regular' contests.
The winner of each Contest gets delivered post-paid right to their front door one of the following:

"The Snow Booklet" by Nolan J. Doesken and Arthur Judson (paperback and .pdf)
"New England Weather New England Climate" by Gregory Zielinski and Barry Keim (hardcover)
"Snow in America" by Bernard Mergan (hardcover)

Everyone's complete forecast is available on the Contest/s web site.

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