CONTEST STATUS - Updated: SUN ... 17-FEB-19 @ 6:40 PM EST

Winter '18 / '19 - Snowfall Forecast Contests

20th Annual 'Regular Season' Snowfall Forecast Contest

Interim Standings, as of Snow Storm #3
Details here

Snow Storm #5
Possible 'Call for Forecasts' MON ... 18-FEB-19

Snow Storm #4
FINAL Results here

Snow Storm #3
FINAL Results here

18th Annual 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest
Deadline for entries has passed.
Forecasts here
Verification period: 01-DEC-18 thru 31-MAR-19

Winter '17 / '18 - Snowfall Forecast Contests
19th Annual 'Regular Season'
FINAL results here

17th Annual 'Season-total'
FINAL results here

Thursday, March 16, 2017

Winter '16 / '17 - Snow Storm #4: Preliminary Verification

Table of preliminary storm-total snowfalls for TUE and WED from CDUS41 and CXUS51 bulletins.

Storm-total snowfall report from PNSBOX.

15-MAR/s daily CLI and CF6 bulletins carry 'MM' as daily snowfall at post-time.  Daily snowfall total assessed as 'T' after evaluation of METARs.  Value subject to change pending CDUS41 and CXUS51 bulletin updates.

 SBY and RIC
 METAR reports of PL

Stations observed at least:
Trace - 25
4" - 17
6" - 14
8" - 11
10" - 11
12" - 11
15" - 6
18" - 2

Max melt-water at BGM (1.92")
Other stations with > 1" melt-water:
MDT (1.75")
ALB (1.58")
ORH (1.54")
BDL (1.54")
ABE (1.28")
BTV (1.13")
PWM (0.99")

Snow-Liquid Ratios (SLR) for areas with mixed precipitation ... such as ISP and JFK ... are not reported.

15 new daily records.
BGM - 31.2" (5.9"; 1991)
BTV - 17.8" (10"; 1980)
ALB - 17" (12.9"; 1958)
PWM - 16.3" (10.6"; 1961)
CON - 15.6" (6.6"; 1984)
MDT - 14.7" (8.3"; 1999)
ORH - 14.4" (11.5"; 1958)
ABE - 12.4" (8.4"; 1958)
BDR - 7.1" (3"; 1958)
EWR - 7" (4.6"; 1958)
BOS - 6.6" (3.8"; 1942)
JFK - 5.1" (2.1"; 1999)
IAD - 4.1" (4"; 1999)
ISP - 3.4" (2"; 1999)

BTV - 12.6" (4.1"; 1940)

Please report any errors in Comments along with a link to the correct data.
Final results expected NLT FRI evening.


Peter O'Donnell said...

Agree on amounts except that Monday 13th amounts should be added for several locations as the contest deadline was Sunday night and I think we were told verification started on Monday. See my comment 2 in the post below for those Monday amounts -- these extra amounts are CXY 2.3, BAL 1.6, IAD 1.5, ABE 1.3, PHL 1.2, DCA 1.1, EWR 0.1 and some traces at RIC, SBY ... also I notice that CAR got another inch today if that should count, I don't know.

-- Roger Smith

TQ said...

Sadly ... no.
The stated period of verification started 12:01 AM 14-MAR

TQ said...

Will amend station STPs if additional snowfall was measured today (THU).

Peter O'Donnell said...

The post dated Saturday 11th down the page says the verification period starts 12:01 a.m. Monday 13th ???

Maybe the home page said something different at the time. I assumed we would count Monday since the forecast deadline was Sunday evening. But it's no big deal.

-- RS

TQ said...

There was a typo in the 'verification period begins' line (FEB v MAR); otherwise ... I/d say it was clear any snowfall on SUN would not be used to verify forecasts

Deadline for entries:
10:30 PM EDT ... SUN ... 12-MAR-17
Verification period begins:
12:01 AM EDT ... MON ... 13-FEB-17
Verification period ends:
When the flakes stop flyin'

Peter O'Donnell said...

I am really confused now, or perhaps you are, the 13th was Monday (in both Feb and Mar) and the forecasts were submitted Sunday evening, the snow on Monday 13th happened at the end of the day and the start of the storm. I wasn't suggesting using any snowfall from Sunday 12th or before the deadline for forecasts. This snow on Monday March 13th started about 21 hours after the contest deadline. I didn't see any typo (on the other page?) but that doesn't bring Sunday snowfall into play anyway. There is no typo in the post down the page posted on Saturday March 11th. So I continue to think that snowfall on the 13th should be counted, I imagine other forecasters will also. OTOH it probably won't affect the results since the amounts are generally small. -- RS

TQ said...

Peter ... once again thx for the eagle eye.
For what ever reason ... I wasn't reading my own handwriting.

Will amend Snow Storm #4 STP to include 13-MAR snowfall.

Peter O'Donnell said...

No worries, I am pretty certain the scoring would not change more than a squinch anyway with those huge amounts further north.

Thanks for the contest, that's the main thing. -- Roger