CONTEST STATUS - Updated: WED ... 13-DEC-17 @ 8:30 PM EST

Winter '17 / '18 - Snowfall Forecast Contests
19th Annual 'Regular Season'
Snow Storm #1
Synoptiscope in VCP32

17th Annual 'Season-total'
Deadline for entries has passed
Forecasters' summary here

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Winter '16 / '17 - Snowfall Forecast Contests
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18th Annual 'Regular Season'
FINAL results here
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16th Annual 'Season-total'
FINAL results here

Sunday, April 2, 2017

Winter '16 / '17 - 16th Annual 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest: FINAL Results



Complete station-by-station forecaster verifications at the Contest/s web site here.

Two perfect forecasts
Donald Rosenfeld 100" @ CAR
Mitchel Volk 15" @ PHL

Near misses
Jessica_wxgirl 0.05" error @ RIC (7.2")
Shillelagh and Jessica_wxgirl 0.1" error @ MDT (23.9")
donsutherland1 0.1" error @ ORH (75.4")
MillVillWx 0.2" error @ ALB (58.3")
kevinmyatt 0.2" error @ NYC (30.2")
weathermbug ... TQ ... and DAROOSTA 0.2" error @ SBY (9.8")
Herb @MAWS and weathermbug 0.2" error @ ORF (5.4")
snowman 0.3" error @ BTV (91.7") and 0.2" error @ EWR (31.4")
Donald Rosenfeld 0.5" error @ BGM (104.5")


Season-total snowfall from all stations (1041") came in 14% above the period-of-record normal (914").  Winter '16 / '17 ranks 6th highest among other Contest years since winter '04 / '05 ... the season when BGR and BGM were added to the station list. 

4 comments:

Peter O'Donnell said...

Congrats TQ and other high finishers, I kept pace in the north but went way off the deep end south of about PHL. By the way, I think I had a tie with Consensus for BGR. See you next November if April fails to deliver. -- Roger Smith

TQ said...

Regarding the tie; a rounding artifact from displaying the forecast error to one decimal place
CONSENSUS error: 1.179
Roger Smith error: 1.200

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Looking forward to seeing your season-total forecast for next winter.

Jessica Cain said...

Hello, TQ! Just thought I would stop in and congratulate you for your well-earned victory in the seasonal snowfall contest. I also would like to thank you for all of your hard work in running the contests.

I was happy "home field advantage" worked out for me at 2 of the 3 stations in PA (ABE & MDT) and in hindsight wished I had gone a little bit higher with my numbers up in northern New England. The BWI-DCA area really screwed me badly!

In the last couple weeks of March I was keeping close tabs on the totals. It was looking like I would do good, but never expected a 2nd place finish!

Once again, thank you so much for running the contests!

JessicaCain in the storm forecasts
Jessica_wxgirl in the seasonal contest

TQ said...

Well done ... Jessica.
None too shabby of a debut for a rookie.

Hope to see you again next winter.