CONTEST STATUS - Updated: TUE ... 15-JAN-19 @ 6:35 PM EST

Winter '18 / '19 - Snowfall Forecast Contests

20th Annual 'Regular Season' Snowfall Forecast Contest

What's A 'Contest-worthy' Storm?

Snow Storm #2
Possible 'Call for Forecasts' THU ... 17-JAN-19

Snow Storm #1
FINAL results here
18th Annual 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest

Deadline for entries has passed.
Forecasts here

Verification period: 01-DEC-18 thru 31-MAR-19

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Winter '17 / '18 - Snowfall Forecast Contests
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19th Annual 'Regular Season'

FINAL results here

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17th Annual 'Season-total'
FINAL results here


Saturday, February 10, 2018

Winter '17 / '18 - Snow Storm #4: FINAL Results

Forecasters' station verifications and the storm summary at NEWxSFC/s home page.
http://www.newx-forecasts.com/

     
 1st - Herb @MAWS   
 SUMSQ:26  
 SUMSQ Z:-0.729  
 STP:16.8 (4) 
 TAE:17.3 (1) 
 AAE:0.82 (1) 
     
 2nd - donsutherland1   
 SUMSQ:29  
 SUMSQ Z:-0.682  
 STP:18.7 (5) 
 TAE:19.0 (2) 
 AAE:1.00 (3) 
     
 3rd - iralibov   
 SUMSQ:38  
 SUMSQ Z:-0.527  
 STP:22.3 (8) 
 TAE:22.3 (5) 
 AAE:1.01 (4) 
     
 HM - Mitchel Volk   
 SUMSQ:39  
 SUMSQ Z:-0.515  
 STP:16.4 (3) 
 TAE:20.2 (3) 
 AAE:0.96 (2) 
     

SUMSQ:  sum of square errors (")
SUMSQ Z:  Z-score
STP:  storm total precipitation error (")
TAE:  total absolute error (")
AAE:  average absolute error (")
(#):  category rank

Forecast by Observed Snowfall Scatterplots for Top Forecasts
Dotted blue line below (above) solid red line ==> under (over) forecast

Snowfall analysis courtesy National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center
http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/interactive/html/map.html

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