CONTEST STATUS - Updated: SUN ... 187-NOV-18 @ 7:30 PM EST

Winter '18 / '19 - Snowfall Forecast Contests

20th Annual 'Regular Season' Snowfall Forecast Contest

What's A 'Contest-worthy' Storm?

Snow Storm #2
Synoptiscope in VCP32

Snow Storm #1
FINAL results here

18th Annual 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest
Verification period: 01-DEC-18 thru 31-MAR-19
Deadline for entries: 11:59 PM EST ... FRI ... 30-NOV-18
Details here

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Winter '17 / '18 - Snowfall Forecast Contests
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19th Annual 'Regular Season'
FINAL results here

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17th Annual 'Season-total'
FINAL results here

Tuesday, February 6, 2018

Winter '17 / '18 - Snow Storm #4: RAW FORECASTS

Here

Apologies to those who did not receive a copy of their forecast.

Forecast confirmation emails sent from the Contest/s web site are being blocked by more ISPs such as Hotmail ... Yahoo ... Comcast ... and Mindspring.

5 comments:

Shillelagh said...

Ratios brutally low up here at KSYR, KBGM, KALB...all sub 10:1...(7.8:1 IMBY)...noticed best UVV was underneath the DGZ ... AFTER I made my forecasts. I don’t think it was mid level warmth that generated very mediocre dendrites throughout the storm although KALB did flip to ZR/IP briefly. Thoughts?

TQ said...

The 12z nose of +0°C @85H over PIT could have found its way into the area. Hard to say. Haven't been able to follow events in real-time today.

Shillelagh said...

So, referring to yesterday’s 02/07/18 00Z 3km NAM sounding for near KSYR during what was basically the height of the storm. I could only find real time soundings for KALB and KBUF an tine frames were off. So, looking at this sounding, does it indicate ratios would be less than 10:1? Moisture looks good, the DGZ is about 100mb deep but best Omega is below the DGZ. Was that our likely problem with mediocre snow growth? I don’t see a mid level warm nose...Thanks, just trying to learn...still. Not sure if I can create a hyperlink to a representative model sounding But trying below.


I was not able to post a direct html link unfortunately, even using html syntax, so below is the link you can copy and past if interested and have the time to humour me. Thanks!

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nam3km&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2018020700&fh=16

Shillelagh said...

Crap, sorry to be a psest...the previous link brings you to the NAM model at the right time but you have to click on the specific map point you are interested in to have the sounding pop up. In this case just have to click on Central NY area, near KSYR or even KBGM. Thanks again.

TQ said...

Cloud tops are near 700 mb.

DGZ (assume that stands for dendrite growth zone) is > 700 mb and not saturated. IIRC, dendrites prefer -15°C and the sounding shows an isothermal of -8°C between 900 mb and 700 mb; a favorable environment for 'columns.'

Snow crystals types chart here ...
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_LJZ5ArmANJQ/TRPM0n726PI/AAAAAAAABbs/Ar0TNsbzruo/s1600/Morphologydiagram_R.jpg