CONTEST STATUS - Updated: SAT ... 14-APR-18 @ 9 PM EDT

Winter '17 / '18 - Snowfall Forecast Contests

19th Annual 'Regular Season' Snowfall Forecast Contest
- FINAL Results here
1st Place: Brad Yehl
2nd Place: Don Sutherland
3rd Place: NWS ER WFOs
HM: Herb @MAWS

17th Annual 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest
- FINAL Results here
1st Place: Don Sutherland
2nd Place: Mitchel Volk
3rd Place: Brad Yehl
HM: TQ
Climo: 5th place

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Winter '16 / '17 - Snowfall Forecast Contests
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18th Annual 'Regular Season'
FINAL results here

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16th Annual 'Season-total'
FINAL results here

Friday, April 6, 2018

Winter '17 / '18 - 17th Annual 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest: FINAL Results

UPDATE 2:  10:45 PM EDT ... FRI ... 06-APR-18
All better (I hope)
 
UPDATE:  10:15 PM EDT ... FRI ... 06-APR-18
Senior NEWxSFC forecaster Roger Smith was inadvertently omitted from the FINAL Results summary (operator error - Excel copy down mistake).  Fix in the works
 
 h/t Roger 'Eagle Eye' Smith
 
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 Complete station-by-station forecaster verifications at the Contest/s web site here (direct link)

Perfect forecasts
iralibov @ PVD (47")

Near misses (< 1" error)
Mitchel Volk
0.1" @ ALB (74.9")
0.2" @ PHL (29.8")
0.2" @ ORF (15.2")
0.3" @ CON (85.3")
0.4" @ NYC (35.4")

Any.wx
0.1" @ BDR (39.9")
0.5" @ BTV (81.5")

33andrain
0.1" @ IAD (11.9")
0.6" @ BOS (58.6")

iralibov
0.1" @ RDU (8.9)
0.6" @ BOS (58.6")

kevinmyatt
0.4" @ NYC (35.4")
0.4" @ RIC (12.4")

Brad Yehl
0.2" @ BDL (48.4")

donsutherland1
0.6" @ EWR (34.4")

MarkHofmann
0.8" @ DCA (7.8")

Smallest station forecast error yet percent error >= 10%
Mitchel Volk
11.1" @ PWM (91.1")
2.2" @ SBY (17.2")

TQ
11.1" @ PWM (91.1")

Any.Wx
11.1" @ PWM (91.1")

donsutherland1
16.5" @ BGR (109")

33andrain
8.9" @ ORH (88.9")

iralibov
10.2" @ ACY (34.2")

Roger Smith
2.2" @ SBY (17.2")

snocat918
1.6" @ BWI (15.4")

MarkHofmann
0.8" @ DCA (7.8")

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Season-total snowfall from all stations (1,234") came in 35% above the period-of-record normal (914").  Winter '17 / '18 ranks 4th among other Contest years since winter '04 / '05 ... the season when BGR and BGM were added to the station list.

8 comments:

Anonymous said...

oops, missed one.

(and there's something wrong with the consensus sum of squares)

-- Roger Smith

TQ said...

Right you are abt CONSENSUS
Don't know what I'd do w/out your eagle eye.

Root cause: formula didn't copy down all the way.
FIX on the morrow.

TQ said...

DOH! Lost your entry too!
OMG ... so sorry RS.
Working on fix now.

TQ said...

Should be good to go.
If not ... just shoot me.

Anonymous said...

No worries, I like to document my failures. ;)

As for consensus, pretty difficult for it to finish last in anything, that would make an interesting math problem.

I can do it with ease however.

-- RS

Anonymous said...

and thanks for the contest, we all enjoy it, strange sort of a season in some ways, and it may not even be over (well this part is).

-- RS

TQ said...

As you well know ... running a contest is a labor of love. Thankful for the continued interest and support from the Forecasters.

Anonymous said...

Yep, this is a great website, hope it attracts even more forecasters in the coming years. Also I hope it snows where I predict snow, that would help.

Congrats to Don Sutherland for a solid forecast and season. He is also leading a contest that I have running on American Weather forums (our season only ends when DEN stops snowing although it barely started this winter). If you like this sort of thing, look in the February contest thread for the snowfall contest updates. Also have one running in the Great Lakes / Ohio valley forum on American weather.

-- Roger Smith