CONTEST STATUS - Updated: MON ... 03-SEP-18 @ 8 PM EDT

Winter '18 / '19 - Snowfall Forecast Contests

20th Annual 'Regular Season' Snowfall Forecast Contest
Season starts when flakes start flyin'

18th Annual 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest
Verification period: 01-DEC-18 thru 31-MAR-19
Deadline for entries: 11:59 PM EST ... FRI ... 30-NOV-18
Look for details on 27-OCT-18

Winter '17 / '18 - Snowfall Forecast Contests
19th Annual 'Regular Season'
FINAL results here

17th Annual 'Season-total'
FINAL results here

Wednesday, April 11, 2018

Winter '17 / '18 - 19th Annual 'Regular Season' Snowfall Forecast Contest: FINAL Results

Under the ‘two-thirds’ rule … forecasters who entered at least SIX forecasts are included in this season's FINAL standings.

Full table with all other error statistics at the Contest/s web site here (direct link).
Individual forecaster's storm statistics here (direct link).

Best Forecasts by Storm

Top 10 Forecasts (Error statistic:  SUMSQ Z)

SUMSQ Error Z is the primary measure of forecaster skill (lower the better).
Accounts for the magnitude and distribution of the storm-total snowfall for all stations.

Top 10 Forecasts (Error statistic:  Total Absolute Error Z - TAE)
TAE Error Z is the secondary measure of forecaster skill (lower the better).
Accounts for the magnitude of snowfall at each station.
Top 10 Forecasts (Error statistic:  RSQ Z)
R-squared (RSQ Z) is a supplementary measure of forecaster skill (higher the better).
Accounts for how well the variability of the observed snowfall was accounted for by the forecast.

Eighteen unique forecasters submitted a total of 2,582 stations forecasts.
Eight forecasters entered all 8 contests.
Three forecasters entered 7 contests.
The remainder entered fewer than six

Hope to see y'all again next winter.

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