Friday, March 8, 2019

Winter '18 / '19 - Regular Season Interim Standings: #3

CORRECTED (09-MAR-19)
Don Sutherland had been identified incorrectly as the Chief 'Regular Season' forecaster when that honor belongs to Brad Yehl.  We regret the error and thank Don Sutherland for bringing it to our attention.

---
After five snow storm forecasting contests ... under the ‘two-thirds’ rule … forecasters who have entered at least FOUR forecasts are included in interim standings #3.


Complete interim statistics table and chart at the Contest/s web site HERE (direct link)
Forecaster statistics for Winter '18 / '19 contest snow storms HERE (direct link)

---
SUMSQ errors for each contest snow storm are normalized (i.e., standardized) with a 'Z-score' ... then averaged to compute the standings. If a forecaster has issued forecasts for more than two-thirds of all snow storm contests ... then Z-scores from their 'best two-thirds' forecasts are used to calculate the Interim and Final standings.

Similar idea as dropping the lowest test score before computing the final grade.

3 comments:

Don said...

Brad won last year. Shouldn’t he be listed as the chief forecaster?

TQ said...

You're right!
The forecaster classification lookup table wasn't updated.

Thx for the 'eagle-eye' ... Don.
Fix in the works ....

Don said...

Thanks as always for everything you do in running this contest.