CONTEST STATUS - Updated: TUE ... 01-SEP-20 @ 11 AM EDT

Winter '20 / '21 - Snowfall Forecast Contests
22nd Annual 'Snow Storm' Snowfall Forecast Contest
Season starts when flakes start a'flyin'
Watch this space

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20th Annual 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest
Window for entries opens on 01-NOV-20 @ 12:01 AM EDT and closes on 30-NOV-20 at 11:59 PM EST

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Winter '19 / '20 - Snowfall Forecast Contests
21th Annual 'Snow Storm' Snowfall Forecast Contest
Season ended as quickly as it started.
No winner this go'round ... too few storms (minimum of three required)

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19th Annual 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest
FINAL Results here

Tuesday, April 23, 2019

Winter '18 / '19 - 20th Annual 'Regular Season' Snowfall Forecast Contest: FINAL Results

After five snow storm forecasting contests ... under the ‘two-thirds’ rule … forecasters who entered at least FOUR forecasts are included in this season's FINAL standings.

Full table with all other error statistics at the Contest/s web site here (direct link).
Individual forecaster's storm statistics here (direct link).




Best Forecasts by Storm

Top 10 Forecasts (Error statistic:  SUMSQ Z)

SUMSQ Error Z is the primary measure of forecaster skill (lower the better).
Accounts for the magnitude and distribution of the storm-total snowfall for all stations.

Top 10 Forecasts (Error statistic:  Total Absolute Error Z - TAE)

TAE Error Z is the secondary measure of forecaster skill (lower the better).
Accounts for the magnitude of snowfall at each station.

Top 10 Forecasts (Error statistic:  RSQ Z) 

RSQ is a measure of the how well the 'forecast' snowfall captured the variability of the 'observed' snowfall (higher the better).
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Twenty unique forecasters submitted a total of 1,609 stations forecasts.
Seven forecasters entered all five contests.
Five forecasters entered four contests.
The remainder entered fewer than four.

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Hope to see y'all again next winter.

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