CONTEST STATUS - Updated: TUE ... 01-SEP-20 @ 11 AM EDT

Winter '20 / '21 - Snowfall Forecast Contests
22nd Annual 'Snow Storm' Snowfall Forecast Contest
Season starts when flakes start a'flyin'
Watch this space

20th Annual 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest
Window for entries opens on 01-NOV-20 @ 12:01 AM EDT and closes on 30-NOV-20 at 11:59 PM EST

Winter '19 / '20 - Snowfall Forecast Contests
21th Annual 'Snow Storm' Snowfall Forecast Contest
Season ended as quickly as it started.
No winner this go'round ... too few storms (minimum of three required)

19th Annual 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest
FINAL Results here

Tuesday, April 23, 2019

Winter '18 / '19 - 20th Annual 'Regular Season' Snowfall Forecast Contest: FINAL Results

After five snow storm forecasting contests ... under the ‘two-thirds’ rule … forecasters who entered at least FOUR forecasts are included in this season's FINAL standings.

Full table with all other error statistics at the Contest/s web site here (direct link).
Individual forecaster's storm statistics here (direct link).

Best Forecasts by Storm

Top 10 Forecasts (Error statistic:  SUMSQ Z)

SUMSQ Error Z is the primary measure of forecaster skill (lower the better).
Accounts for the magnitude and distribution of the storm-total snowfall for all stations.

Top 10 Forecasts (Error statistic:  Total Absolute Error Z - TAE)

TAE Error Z is the secondary measure of forecaster skill (lower the better).
Accounts for the magnitude of snowfall at each station.

Top 10 Forecasts (Error statistic:  RSQ Z) 

RSQ is a measure of the how well the 'forecast' snowfall captured the variability of the 'observed' snowfall (higher the better).
Twenty unique forecasters submitted a total of 1,609 stations forecasts.
Seven forecasters entered all five contests.
Five forecasters entered four contests.
The remainder entered fewer than four.

Hope to see y'all again next winter.

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