Interim Standings

After three snow storms...donsutherland1 is in 1st Place with a hefty lead.

Click to enlarge
SUMSQ errors are normalized with a 'Z-score' for each snow storm contest...then averaged to compute the standings. Forecasters who have entered at least 2/3 of all snow storm contests are included in the standings.

If a forecaster has participated in more than two-thirds of all snow storm contests...then Z-scores from their 'best two-thirds' forecasts are used to calculate interim and final standings. Same idea as dropping the lowest quiz score before computing the final grade.

Contest # 3 - Final Results

Chief Forecaster Donsutherland1 finished in 1st place for contest snow storm #3. This is his second 1st place finish this year.

No only did he have the lowest SUMSQ error...he hit the trifecta with top honors for Total Absolute Error (30% improvement over Consensus) and Average Absolute Error (1.16").

Donsutherland1/s STP forecast for 60" had an error of 0.95" (total observed snowfall @ all stations less total forecast snowfall @ all stations). The R-square statistic of 0.837 shows his forecast accounted for 84% of the observed snowfall/s variability.

Congratulations...Don!

Full forecast verification and contest summary @ the web site.

Mild...Then Wild

Despite some disagreement among the ENSM members...teleconnection indice forecasts suggest movement toward a colder...stormier planetary flow regime for the EC around mid-JAN following a brief spell of mild wx.

Today/s GooFuS depicts a series of SE PAC cyclones coming ashore then migrating NE through the central CONUS...blocked from coming too far E by the stubborn SE heat ridge through D+8. The extended range progs create a hi-amplitude ridge W that allows intense arctic anticyclones back into the Lower 48.

When the cold returns...so do the EC storms.

Snowfall Summary - DEC '07

Bonus snows were observed over much of the Northeast in December...with some stations getting up to three and half times their period-of-record normal (PORN) amounts.

BOS snowfall of 27.7" was 360% PORN (7.7") and amounts to 68% of D-J-F-M PORN (41").
CON snowfall of 44.5" is 78% of their D-J-F-M PORN (57.3"). DEC normally contributes 24% of the CON/s season-total snowfall and 19% @ BOS.

Most stations...where DEC snowfall was well in excess of PORN...also observed below normal temperatures. BGR had the greatest departure of -4°F. The exception was ACY where DEC/s snowfall of 4.4" was 183% of PORN and temperatures were 1.7°F above normal.

RED ==> Top 25%
BLUE ==> Bottom 25%
White ==> everywhere in between

Contest # 3 - Verification

Preliminary storm-total snowfalls from CDUS41 and CF6 bulletins for Sunday and Monday.

SN-to-H2O ratio for MDT is estimated.

Minor discrepancy between amounts reported by 12/30 CDUS41 (0.9") and F6 (0.3") @ PWM.

CAR amount is suspect given its 10:1 ratio and the vertical temperature profile during the event; however..VCNTY PNS reports suggest 3.4" is likely correct.

New daily records
12/31
BGR - 8.2" (6.4"; 1972)
CON - 10.1" (6"; 1879)
PWM - 6.6" (4.3"; 1893)
ALB - 7.9" (6.4"; ?)

Final results and storm summary on Wednesday.
Please report errors in 'Remarks.'

Contest # 4 - The Forecasts

Maximum...average...median...and minimum station forecasts
Seven veteran forecasters. No rookies who must all be out partying tonight.

MAX STP: jackzig 61.25"
MIN STP: TQ 42.45"
AVG STP: 53.50"

Another northern New England event where the consensus heavy snowfall axis is expected from CAR - BGR - PWM - CON - BTV - CAR.

All forecasts have been posted to the NEWxSFC web site. Follow the link from Storm Contest Forecasts 'Contest # 4'. Forecasts are ranked from minimum to maximum STP.

Contest # 3 - Teleconnections

Heavy snows fell across northern portions of the forecast area...yet so-called 'critical heavy snowfall' teleconnection indices are all on the wrong side of zero for this event.

Not surprising. It/s another meteorological myth that can/t stand the light of data.

Contest # 3 - The Forecasts

Maximum...average...median...and minimum station forecasts
Forecasts have been posted to the Contest web site. Follow the link to Contest #3.

Minimum STP: GSB Snowman 43.15"
Maximum STP: wxduff 72.05"
AVG STP: 59.61"

Consensus heavy snow axis from BGR - PWM - CON - ORH - ALB - BGR.

Contest # 4 - Call for Forecasts

Northern stream short-wave progged to spread contest-worthy snows across the forecast area as it migrates east from the Great Lakes and excites cyclogenesis in the waters off SNE coast on New Year/s Day.

Deadline: 10:30 PM EST Monday...31 December 2007
Forecast verification begins: 12:01 AM EST Tuesday...01 January 2008

Enter your forecast via the Contest/s web site
Follow the link to 'Enter Storm Forecast.'

Please enter 0.05 for trace amounts instead of a 'T.'

All forecasts will be posted by the Contest Administrator to the NE_Wx Google Group before 11 PM EST Monday...31 December 2007 and to the Contest web site by Tuesday afternoon.

Contest subject to cancellation before the deadline…if forecast conditions warrant.

More information about the contest/s rules…forecast verification…and scoring can be found @ the web site.

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Forecasters need to register once before entering…even if they were registered last year.

Registration is simple…requiring only a user name and password. If you provide a valid e-mail address…a copy of your forecast will be sent to you. Please ensure your browser is enabled to accept first-party cookies.

Each contest must have a minimum of seven (7) forecasters for the results to be included in the end-of-season standings.

The NE.Wx Snowfall Forecast Contest (NEWxSFC) is a multi-month event that continues into late March or early April. In general…contests are held whenever a decent…synoptic-scale storm rears its head and threatens at least a half-dozen forecast stations with more than nuisance snowfall amounts. Forecasters are called to post their 'storm total' snowfall predictions…on deadline…for 27 NWS / FAA observing stations scattered about New England and the Mid-Atlantic regions. The Contest Administrator determines the deadlines for entries…verifies all forecasts…and publishes the final results to the Contest/s web site.

Please be sure to read the rules before entering the contest b/c your entry constitutes agreement to abide by them.

You can find the Contest Rules and additional information about error scoring…current monthly snowfall climatology from NCDC…daily CPC teleconnection indices…daily NESDIS NHEMI snow cover…and NWS Daily Climate Bulletins (CDUS41) by pointing your browser here.

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Happy New Year - Contest # 4?

Sunday/s 12z progs suggest another contest-worthy event on New Year/s Day with cyclogenesis occurring in the Gulf of ME followed by an arctic outbreak.

Thermal profiles appear colder for this system..and like Storm # 3...it taps into hi-PW parcels from low latitudes.