sCAST Forecast Verification - Winter '07 / '08

More...

Last October/s post about sCAST/s forecast for Winter '07 / '08.

Other NEWxSFC posts about sCAST here.

Rapid Glacial Retreat in Alaska

Cool before and after pix.

"With the exception of the huge polar ice sheet in Antarctica, the globe’s cryosphere, or ice zone, is melting, and nowhere is that more evident than in the glaciers of Alaska. Bruce F. Molnia, a research geologist at the U.S. Geological Survey, has compiled a striking set of photographs in a new book, Glaciers in Alaska, that documents that retreat.

Comparing archival photographs from the first half of the 20th century with present-day pictures, Molnia illustrates a stark reality: 99 percent of Alaska’s 100,000 glaciers are shrinking, and those at elevations lower than 4,900 feet are thinning and retreating with stunning swiftness."

CPC Outlook - Winter '08 / '09

Probably a good sign CPC/s 1.5 month...long-lead outlook hasn/t painted a cold...wet signal over the NE CONUS.

WSI - Mild in the East - Winter '08 / '09

From Reuters...
WSI forecaster...Todd Crawford...said in a press release today...
"The ocean temperature signals in the Pacific Ocean are generally suggestive of a relatively warm period in most of the eastern United States during late fall and winter, with the exception of December.

"Further, neither ocean temperatures in the Atlantic nor the snow cover build up at Arctic latitudes are suggestive of sustained cold and snowy weather in the East this upcoming winter. We expect the best chances of sustained cold weather to occur prior to the New Year, with mild conditions prevailing after that."

MET Office - NAO Forecast '08 / '09

The UKMET Office...the British version of the US NWS...produces a statistical NAO forecast for the upcoming winter.
The forecast for 500 mb heights is based on a analysis of observed and the 'predictor pattern' of SST anomalies in the northern Atlantic Ocean.
"By taking the observed SST anomaly for May (figure above) and calculating how it projects onto the predictor pattern we can make a prediction for the winter NAO. If the projection is positive (i.e. the anomaly pattern looks similar to the predictor pattern) then the prediction is for a positive winter NAO. Conversely, if the observed May SST anomaly projects negatively onto the predictor pattern (i.e. it looks like the reverse of the predictor pattern) then we would predict a negative NAO."
"The figure below shows that the predicted winter NAO index for 2008/9 is weakly positive at +0.1 with a standard error of ±1.0. The small amplitude of the predicted index relative to the error bar means that the NAO prediction this year provides little signal for below- or above-normal European winter temperatures or precipitation. However, the prediction is consistent with a cooler, drier winter over northern Europe as a whole than experienced in winter 2007/8, when the observed index was +1.6."

Note...however...last year/s prediction (-0.05) was essentially the same as this year/s and last year/s observed NAO was +1.6.
Move along. Not much skill here. At least not in the past few years.

NEWxSFC/s 10th Anniversary Celebration

The Northeast Weather Snowfall Forecast Contest (NEWxSFC) is celebrating its 10th anniversary this winter. The Contest began during the '99/'00 season on USENET/s ne.weather news-group. It/s the longest continuously held snowfall forecasting contest for the NE CONUS on the Internet.

Special prizes will be awarded to the top Forecasters this year to commemorate the event. Sincere thanks go to Jack @ StormVista for his generous donation of StormVista GOLD and continued support to the NEWxSFC.

There are usually 8 - 10 contest-worthy storms each winter. You can win one (1) month of access to StormVista GOLD if you make the best forecast for any one of these storms.

Place 1st in the end-of-season standings and you/ll win the two-volume...hard-bound set "Northeast Snowstorms" (Kocin/Uccellini) and three (3) months access to StormVista GOLD.

Place 2nd and you win two (2) months access to StormVista GOLD.

Place 3rd and you win one (1) month access to StormVista GOLD.

As always...there are no fees...costs...or annoying requests for personal information of any kind to enter the Contest. Please visit the web site for further details.

We Have A Winner!

8 Storms
26 Forecasters

10 Rookies
2 Interns
3 Journeyman
11 Senior

2,072 Station Forecasts
560” Total Snowfall

Don Sutherland has successfully defended his Chief Forecaster title by winning handily the 9th Annual NE.Wx Snowfall Forecast Contest.

Don/s final scores:
AVG SUMSQ Z-score: -1.165
AVG Total Absolute Error Z-score: -1.175
AVG Error: 1.3"

Don wins a copy of the book New England Weather New England Climate...by Gregory Zielinski and Barry Keim and one month of FREE access to StormVista GOLD.

Second place goes to Raven...last year/s Chief Season-total forecaster.
Raven/s final scores:
AVG SUMSQ Z-score: -0.685
AVG Total Absolute Error Z-score: -0.516
AVG Error: 1.8"

TQ finished in third place.
TQ/s final scores:
AVG SUMSQ Z-score: -0.679
AVG Total Absolute Error Z-score: -0.980
AVG Error: 1.5"

Honorable Mention: shanabe
Shanabe/s final scores:
AVG SUMSQ Z-score: -0.646
AVG Total Absolute Error Z-score: -0.562
AVG Error: 1.6"

Contest summary @ the web site.

Thanks to everyone who entered a forecast. Hope to see y'all again next winter.

7th Annual Season-total Snowfall Forecast Contest - Results

Rookie forecaster Duke kc2dux won the 7th Annual NE.Wx/s Season-total Snowfall Forecast Contest. Duke/s 'total absolute error' of 314" was a 32% improvement over the 'period of record normal (PORN) error of 463".

The season was notable for its heavy snowfall over northern portions of the forecast area where 1/3 of the stations exceeded their PORN snowfall. Snowfall at Concord, NH (CON) and Caribou, ME (CAR) between DEC 1 and MAR 31 was almost twice PORN.

Second place goes to NE.Wx/s Bridesmaid for Life shanabe (error = 332").

Don Sutherland finished in third place (error = 341").

Perfect forecasts:
BOS - Toms92GP* and pablopicasso*
ORH - NNEWX70*
NYC - Steve Okonski
ACY - shanabe

Complete station-by-station forecast verification table and contest summary @ the web site.

Thanks to everyone who entered. Hope to see all of you again next winter.

The Regular Season contest season is coming to a close. MR progs got nothin'. Final results coming soon.

Update - 7th Annual Season-total Snowfall Forecast Contest

The Season-total Snowfall Forecast Contest for Winter '07 / '08 closes @ 11:59 PM EDT MON 31 MAR 2008. Final results will be available shortly thereafter.

Snow continues piling on @ the extreme northern stations. A few more inches are possible right up to the end.

Contest # 9 - Take 3

The 12z GooFuS was dangling bright...shiny...six-sided objects again today...this time though...it might not be a mere mirage on the 240-hour or 144-hour prog where all the best storms have been of late.

The latest 'new-n-improved' version of the Eta / NAM / WRF / WTF was not as generous...so maybe FRI/s event will disappear into the ether as well.

Should the latest progged promise of a late season contest storm continue over the next few model runs...a call for forecasts will come WED evening with an entry deadline about 24 hours later.