Winter '09 / '10 - Commodity Weather Group

Matt Rogers...Meteorologist:

"Some forecasters see the potential for the coldest US winter in a decade. "We do think there are opportunities for a potentially colder than normal winter coming up, one of the coldest we've seen in the past decade,"...

The Market Oracle

Winter '09 / '10 - CPC Outlook (SEPT)

CPC/s 2.5 month long-lead forecast for D-J-F...issued yesterday...continues to reflect their expectation for a strengthening an el Niño event. Last month/s outlook here.



A moderate strength +ENSO event (3-month SSTa between 1°C and 1.5°C) now supported by 11 dynamic and statistical forecast models...up from 9 models in August. This may be a result of the 12-week moving average in Niño 3.4 (data) having reached +0.84°C following three weeks of +0.9°C.



+ENSO favor above-normal snowfall over the mid-Atlantic...especially along coastal regions and northern New England. Throw in an easterly QBO...which favors positive height anomalies at high latitudes during solar minimums...and the ingredients for good snows are beginning to come together.



Climate Prediction Center/s 'ENSO Impact' page here.

Winter '09 / '10 - AccuWeather

Joe Bastardi, Chief Hurricane and Long-range Forecaster:

*Chance of colder winter in Northeast, Europe and Far East
*Midwest outlook warmer than last year

"Not only does it have a chance to be colder in the U.S. Northeast but also in the Far East and probably Europe.

"But the EL Nino is not really 'causing' anything in my view. It's a by-product of larger scale forces going on, some of them cyclical, like very low Sun spot activity, which can cause a decrease in radiation from the Sun. This weaker El Nino could fade, as it did in '06-'07, when we went from one of the warmest winters to very cold.

"I expect New York and Washington D.C. to have more snow and to be colder. I'm expecting it to be colder than last year in southern New England more than in the northern part.

"The Midwest should be warmer, like in Ohio and the parts that got blasted with so much snow last year."

Reuters

Winter '09 / '10 - Earthsat

Travis Hartman, Energy Weather Manager:

*December and January warmer than normal, but cooler than the average over the past 10 years
*February temps to fall below normal, including along the eastern seaboard.

"We see the main driver for the winter being a moderate strength El Nino in the central tropical Pacific. With that we see a propensity for warmer-than-normal temperatures -- normal being the 30 year normal from 1971 to 2000 -- across the northern U.S. tier, specifically the Northern Plains, the Midwest and the Great Lakes region."

Reuters

Winter '09 / '10 - DTN Meteorlogix

*El Nino to drive the weather pattern
*Mild in Northwest, Central Plains and Great Lakes
*Southern parts of the country to be cooler
*Severe winter storms expected on the East Coast

"An El Nino should remain in place through the winter season in contrast to the previous two winters when La Nina conditions prevailed in the Pacific Ocean.

"The mild and drier weather that occurred across the southern U.S. will switch toward a cooler and wetter pattern this year. In contrast the cold and snowy conditions that frequented the northwest and north central states will turn milder and less snowy for the 2009-10 season.

"The threat for several strong East Coast storms will be back this year after a recent quieter period."

Reuters

Winter '09 / '10 - Planalytics

'Private weather service providers' (PWSP) have begun issuing their outlooks for the coming winter.

Jim Rouiller, Meteorologist:

*El Niño and NAO to drive weather pattern
*Generally cold start to winter, with milder finish
*Northeast to average normal temps, with swings and storms
*Midwest cold blasts expected early on, then turning milder
*Southern parts of the country generally cooler

"There will be a cold start with a milder finish. Its really going to hit hard as we head into November.
[...]
"I also see a trend toward more storminess along the eastern seaboard this winter. I sense that in January the North Atlantic Oscillation will be negative which means that once blocking gets established over the north Atlantic it tends to relate to increased troughs over the East. That can mean periodic shots of very cold air and establish a storm trend, which means a higher snowstorm threat.

"The Northeast and Mid-Atlantic will average out close to normal, but it will be associated with radical temperature swings where we'll get a few days of extreme cold followed by milder air. We expect some very intense cold shots."

Reuters

Winter '09 / '10 - Larry Cosgrove

Preeminent synoptic meteorologist Larry Cosgrove discusses current flow regimes... patterns...trends and their potential impact on the coming winter in his latest newsletter.

"Since we have not yet settled into calendar autumn, it is unwise to make an absolute prediction for the upcoming winter season. But the character of the El Niño Southern Oscillation, which will dominate the course of weather in upcoming months, seems to be visible.



"Unlike a "typical El Niño" (if indeed there is such a thing), there have been NO signs of a true split flow in the polar westerlies. The northern branch has been dominant, even showing signs of buckling with Rex and Omega formations in Alaska, Canada, and Greenland (although the recent development of a North American theater +AO signature is a major break from the summer pattern). The fledgling lower latitude stream arises from the very warm waters adjacent to Mexico, running well south of California. This is one of the reasons that I think the Golden State will have its driest +ENSO since 1976-77, and Dixie and the East Coast are in line to get a very active "Miller A" type storm track."

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Arctic Sea Ice - SEP '09

The extent of arctic sea ice at the end of meteorological summer remains abnormally low (> 2 STD below 1979 - 2000 mean); however...not as dire as the two previous years.

Image courtesy National Snow and Ice Data Center

Winter '09 / '10 - Expecting el Niño

NOAA/s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) expects a moderate to strong el Niño during the upcoming winter (3-month Niño-3.4 SST index of +1.0°C or greater)...which suggests a good chance for above-average precipitation along most of the East Coast.

"Warm Event Winter" image courtesy COAPS

The 3-month moving average SST anomalies in region 3.4 are currently 0.9°C.

CPC/s 3.5-month long-lead forecast for temperature and precipitation...issued AUG 20...reflect elements of an el Niño event.

Complicating the impact of el Niño on the winter's forecast will be the PDO...which is 23 months and four 'years' (OCT - MAR) into a negative phase. -PDO correlates to above normal heights over the SE CONUS...which could keep the primary storm track away from the coast.

Winter '09 / '10 - Weather Trends International

"For a year now, WTI has been projecting a more typical El Nino Winter pattern with the active jet stream split along the Southern tier of the U.S. bringing a lot of rain to the parched Southwest and Texas with the other jet stream well up in Canada with only occasional very cold snaps for the later half of Winter.

"This also suggests an active threat for the East Coast for a few Nor’easters with snowfall up 30% to 100% over last year for the major cities from Washington D.C. to Boston, less well inland. In this case we agree with the Almanac forecast along with the potential for a brutal February and March in terms of late Winter cold and bigger snow events."

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