Winter '11 / '12 - Season-total Forecast Contest - FINAL Results

Roger Smith FTW!
Roger won last year...as well.
Congratulations!

donsutherland1 placed a close 2nd.

Herb @ MAWS takes 3rd.

Honorable Mention goes to Donald Rosenfeld.

PORN is the 'period of record normal' or climatology.

Skillful forecasts are those that beat PORN climatology.

A forecaster's batting average represents how many of their stations had the lowest absolute forecast error.

Everyone's forecast has been verified and posted to the Contest/s web site here.

Hope to see y'all back again next winter.

Winter '11 / '12 - Season-total Snowfall Forecast Contest - Station Summary

Forecast station summary ...



Green shading ==> best 1/3 in category.
Red shading ==> worst 1/3 in category.

SBY carries 2". (UPDATED 04-SEP-12:  VantagePoint reports season-total of 4.2".  No change in standings.)  Maybe there was more.  Hard to know since AKQ no longer reports snowfall data for this station.

Pitiful excuse for a winter this season.

Snowfall totals barely got off the mat at most locations.

Anomalously strong polar vortex persisted well into meteorological winter's second month despite -QBO...further evidenced by the +AO.  NAO remained positive D-J-F save for a few brief excursions below zero.

Up next...forecaster summary and FINAL standings.

Winter '11 / '12 - Meteorological Winter - Month Three

CAR alone enjoyed a 'normal' snowfall this winter.  No other station came even close to normal.

March is the last month for the 'season-total' snowfall forecast contest.  Latest round of long range progs hold little hope for a late rally.

Climo columns are the summed monthly totals for DEC...JAN...and FEB.

Teleconnections for FEB (top) and meteorological winter (bottom).

Winter '11 / '12 - Snow Storm #2 - Final Results

Springfield MA

1st Place - donsutherland1
SUMSQ: 76.05
SUMSQ Z: -1.079
STP: 6.35 (4)
TAE: 20.75 (1)
AAE: 1.60 (1)

2nd Place - Brad Yehl
SUMSQ: 109.66
SUMSQ Z: -0.651
STP: 18.90 (9)
TAE: 26.50 (2)
AAE: 2.04 (5)

3rd Place - TQ
SUMSQ: 117.34
SUMSQ Z: -0.553
STP: 8.05 (6)
TAE: 30.95 (4)
AAE: 2.06 (6)

Honorable mention - ilibov
SUMSQ: 125.21
SUMSQ Z: -0.453
STP: 9.20 (7)
TAE: 33.00 (7)
AAE: 1.74 (2)
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SUMSQ: sum of square errors
STP: storm-total precipitation error
TAE: total absolute error
AAE: average absolute error
(number): category rank

Verified forecasts and storm summary at the Contest/s web site.

Winter '11 / '12 - Snow Storm #2 - Preliminary Verification

Preliminary storm-total snowfalls for Wednesday and Thursday from CDUS41...CXUS51...and PNS...as of 4 PM Friday.

Based on PNSBOX and NOHRSC...no evidence for any accumulation at HYA.  ORH value came from PNSBOX b/c no report was available from climate bulletins.   ORH STP may be revised if new data become available.

Several stations in the data table do not have SN:H2O reported b/c their liquid totals included mixed precipitation.

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Four new daily records.
WED...29-FEB-12
BDL - 4.4" (4.4"; 2008)
ALB - 4" (0.8"; 2008)
ORH - 4" (3.1"; 1968)

THU...01-MAR-12
PWM - 13" (9.3"; 2005)

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Please report any errors and drop a link to the correct data in Comments.

Final results and storm summary Saturday evening.

Winter '11 / '12 - Snow Storm #2 - The Forecasts

Posted at the Contest/s web page here.

Winter '11 / '12 - Snow Storm #2 - Raw Forecasts

Raw forecasts here.

Winter '11 / '12 - Snow Storm #2 - Call for Forecasts - Take Two

26-FEB-1969
Boston

Appears to be a sloppy Miller 'B' storm poised to rake much of New England come Wednesday followed by the remnants of the parent LOW on Thursday.  Moderate strength HIGH to the north expected to keep columns cold enough to support a contest-worthy storm.

Might as well fuggetabout the classic nor'easter this season.

The contest may be canceled prior to the deadline if NWP indicates a fizzling event.

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Forecast element: storm-total snowfall
Deadline for entries: 10:30 PM EST TUE...28-FEB-12

Verification period begins: 12:01 AM WED...29-FEB-12
Verification period ends: 11:59 PM THU...01-MAR-12

Enter your forecast at the Contest's home page here.
Follow the link from 'Enter Storm Forecast.'

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As always...there/s no cost...or fee...or advertising...or annoying requests for personal information to enter a forecast. It's just a fun exercise among winter wx enthusiasts to see who can make the best synoptic-scale snowfall forecast.

If you are issuing your first forecast this winter...or you entered the 'season-total' forecast contest...you/ll need to create an account (user name / password / valid e-mail...if you want a copy of your forecast sent to your Inbox).

Want to be notified via e-mail when a 'Call for Forecasts' is issued?
Send your request to newx at newx-forecasts dot com.

Winter '11 / '12 - VCP32 - Liking Myself the Way I Am

Winter '11 / '12 - Snow Storm #2 - Fizzle

Update:

ORH measured 0.5"

No report from ORH at post-time.