Winter '12 / '13 - Storm #5: RAW Forecasts

Red Cross - BOS
1935


RAW forecasts posted to NEWx/s GoogleGroup page here.

Winter '12 / '13 - Storm #5: Call for Forecasts! Redux

Snowfall
-- liquid equivalent in mm --

Progs have been teasing a late season M-A event for days featuring a near-ideal synoptic set-up of a arctic HIGH pressure of moderate strength over eastern Canada/s Maritime provinces and northern New England and a slowly moving...quick deepening LOW off the NC coast.

The storm has come into better focus with the expected onset of frozen precipitation ~48 hours away at post-time.  SUN/s 12z runs shifted the max snowfall action center from SW VA and smack dab into the Contest/s M-A forecast area.

Areas on the map inside the light green (10-15 mm) indicate the GFS forecast for at least 4" of snow assuming 10:1 frozen-to-melt water ratio.

HPC/s late afternoon charts restrict contest-worthy snows to the mountainous regions of WV...VA..and MD...largely a result of a 'major compromise' among competing solutions.

The contest for Storm #5 may be canceled prior to deadline if NWP indicates a fizzling event.

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Forecast element: storm-total snowfall
Deadline for entries: 10:30 PM EST MON...04-MAR-13

Verification period begins: 12:01 AM TUE...05-MAR-13
Verification period ends: when the snow stops.

Enter your forecast at the Contest's home page here.
Follow the link from 'Enter Storm Forecast.'

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As always...there/s no cost...or fee...or advertising...or annoying requests for personal information to enter a forecast. It's just a fun exercise for winter wx enthusiasts to see who can make the best synoptic-scale snowfall forecast.

If you are issuing your first forecast this winter...or you entered the 'season-total' forecast contest...you/ll need to create an account (user name / password / valid e-mail...if you want a copy of your forecast sent to your Inbox).

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Want to be notified via e-mail when the 'Call for Forecast' is issued?
Send requests to 'newx at newx-forecasts dot com'.

Winter '12 / '13 - Storm #5: Call for Forecasts!

Lighthouses at Long Point
Provincetown...MA
1875

UPDATE

Call for Forecasts - CANCELLED

12Z SAT NWP suggest not enough snow and not enough stations for a contest- worthy storm.

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(Originally posted 21-FEB-13 @ 8:35 PM EST)

**  Early announcement b/c of other commitments tomorrow evening and an earlier than usual deadline for entries. **

'Nother nor'easter heading into the forecast area this weekend with a decent stripe of frozen precipitation progged along in the NW edge of the precipitation shield.

No cold air source to the storm/s north along with LOW/s close proximity to the coast could put the kabosch on this event.

Only snow that accumulates after midnight Sunday will be used to verify the forecasts.

The contest for Storm #5 may be canceled prior to deadline if NWP indicates a fizzling event.

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Forecast element: storm-total snowfall
Deadline for entries: 7 PM EST SAT...23-FEB-13

Verification period begins: 12:01 AM SUN...24-FEB-13
Verification period ends: when the snow stops.

Enter your forecast at the Contest's home page here.
Follow the link from 'Enter Storm Forecast.'

---
As always...there/s no cost...or fee...or advertising...or annoying requests for personal information to enter a forecast. It's just a fun exercise for winter wx enthusiasts to see who can make the best synoptic-scale snowfall forecast.

If you are issuing your first forecast this winter...or you entered the 'season-total' forecast contest...you/ll need to create an account (user name / password / valid e-mail...if you want a copy of your forecast sent to your Inbox).
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Want to be notified via e-mail when the 'Call for Forecast' is issued?
Send requests to 'newx at newx-forecasts dot com'.

Winter '12 / '13 - Interim Standings: 2

After four storms...it/s Brad Yehl...herb @maws...and dryslot.

Under the ‘two-thirds’ rule…forecasters who have entered at least three forecasts are included in these interim standings.

Full forecaster statistics table and charts here.
All forecasts from all forecasters for all storms here.

SUMSQ errors for each contest snow storm are normalized with a 'Z-score'...then averaged to compute the standings. Forecasters who have entered at least 2/3 of all snow storm contests are included in the standings.

If a forecaster has participated in more than two-thirds of all snow storm contests...then Z-scores from their 'best two-thirds' forecasts are used to calculate Interim and Final standings. Same idea as dropping the lowest quiz score before the final grade is computed.

Winter '12 / '13 - Interim Standings

UPDATE
Journeyman forecaster Brad Yehl was inadvertenly left out of the first Interim standings.
His 'Average SUMSQ Error Z-score' was -0.788...which would have put him in third place.

Apologizes to Brad for the oversight.

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(Originally posted 02-FEB-13 @ 7:45 PM EST)
After three snow storms...it/s dryslot...donsutherland1...and Donald Rosenfeld.

Under the ‘two-thirds’ rule…forecasters who have entered at least two forecasts are included in this interim summary.

Full forecaster statistics table and charts here.
All forecasts from all forecasters for all storms here.

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SUMSQ errors for each contest snow storm are normalized with a 'Z-score'...then averaged to compute the standings. Forecasters who have entered at least 2/3 of all snow storm contests are included in the standings.

If a forecaster has participated in more than two-thirds of all snow storm contests...then Z-scores from their 'best two-thirds' forecasts are used to calculate Interim and Final standings. Same idea as dropping the lowest quiz score before the final grade is computed.

Winter '12 / '13 - Storm #4: Final Results

1st - Brad Yehl
SUMSQ:	7.01
SUMSQ Z:	-1.127
STP:	4.81	(3)
TAE:	7.39	(1)
AAE:	0.34	(1)
2nd - herb@maws
SUMSQ:	14.77
SUMSQ Z:	-0.959
STP:	10.86	(5)
TAE:	13.94	(2)
AAE:	0.63	(3)
3rd - weatherT
SUMSQ:	31.38
SUMSQ Z:	-0.600
STP:	0.61	(1)
TAE:	19.39	(6)
AAE:	0.81	(4)
HM - Donald Rosenfeld
SUMSQ:	34.00
SUMSQ Z:	-0.543
STP:	9.50	(4)
TAE:	14.10	(3)
AAE:	0.61	(2)

SUMSQ: sum of square errors

STP: storm-total precipitation error

TAE: total absolute error
AAE: average absolute error
(number):  category rank

Full forecast verification and summary for Storm #4 at the Contest/s web site.

Winter '12 / '13 - Storm #3: NESIS

NESIS:  4.35 (Category 3 - Major)
Rank:  25

Source:  https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/rsi/nesis

Winter '12 / '13 - Storm #4: Preliminary Verification

Preliminary storm-total snowfalls for Sunday from CDUS41...CXUS51...and PNS bulletins.

No new daily records.

Please report any errors and drop a link to the correct data in Comments.

Final results and storm summary Tuesday evening.

Winter '12 / '13 - Storm #4: The Forecasts

Rookie 2
Intern 1
Journeyman 1
Senior 6
TOT 10

Entries ranked by STP.

166 station forecasts.

Consensus for heavy snowfall (+6") expected at HYA.  Plowable totals from CAR-BGR-BOS-PVD.

AO and PNA pulling all the weight...again.
NAO MIA...again.

Everyone/s station-by-station forecast has been posted on the Contest/s web site.

Winter '12 / '13 - Storm #4: RAW Forecasts

RAW forecasts posted to NEWx/s GoogleGroup page here.