Winter '12 / '13 - 12th Annual Season-total Forecast Contest: FINAL Results

Donald Rosenfeld FTW!
He was the only forecaster to beat climatology this season.

The 'season-total' snowfall forecast contest/s error statistic is total absolute error.

For each forecast station...the absolute value of (Forecast - Observed) is calculated....then summed.

Forecasts with the lower 'total absolute forecast' errors have more skill than those with higher 'total absolute forecast' errors.

PORN is the 'Period Of Record Normal' or climatology.

Skillful season-total forecasts are those that beat climatology.

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Another big season for SNE...especially BDR at 216% of normal...along with BOS and PVD whose 'normal' snowfall falls inside the interquartile range but this season's 'observed' snowfall pushed them in the upper quartile (>= 75 percentile).

Other over-achievers...albeit less notable...were ACY and RIC b/c their 'normal' season-total snowfalls are in the lower 25th percentile of all forecast stations yet they climbed into the interquartile range this winter.

Biggest 'losers' were stations where the 'normal' snowfall is in the upper quartile of all forecast stations yet did not finish the season in the upper quartile.  This year finds CAR...BTV...and BGM on the 'walk of shame.'

Other 'loser' seasons occurred at PHL and IAD.  Their 'normals' fall in the interquartile range but their season-total snowfall put them in the lower quartile.

GREEN - 75th percentile and above.

RED - 25th percentile and below

WHITE - The interquartile range located between the 25th and 75th percentiles.

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Everyone's forecast has been verified and posted to the Contest/s web site here.

Hope to see y'all back again next winter.

Winter '12 / '13 - 12th Annual 'Season-total' Forecast Contest: MAR Totals

MAR totals were 24% above period-of-record normal.

ACY more than three times normal.

Twelve stations measured at least 100% of nornmal....five of which were at least 200% of normal.

The season-total snowfall to date (D-J-F-M) over the entire forecast area was 7% above normal.

Monthly totals for DEC and JAN here...FEB here.

Winter '12 / '13 - VCP32: Life After Death

Winter '12 / '13 - Storm #7: Call for Forecasts

UPDATE
Call for Forecasts - CANCELLED

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(Originally posted 3/22/13 @ 3:08 PM EDT)

SW Harbor...ME
28-JAN-40

Today/s 12z NAM and GEM-GLB argue for a contest-worthy storm Sunday evening.
GFS not so much.

Would hate to miss a late season opportunity...especially for the snow starved M-A...so a call goes out for forecasts.

The contest for Storm #7 may be canceled prior to deadline if NWP indicates a fizzling event.

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Forecast element: storm-total snowfall
Deadline for entries: 10:30 PM EDT SAT...23-MAR-13

Verification period begins: 12:01 AM EDT SUN...24-MAR-13
Verification period ends: when the snow stops.

Enter your forecast at the Contest's home page here.
Follow the link from 'Enter Storm Forecast.'

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As always...there/s no cost...or fee...or advertising...or annoying requests for personal information to enter a forecast. It's just a fun exercise for winter wx enthusiasts to see who can make the best synoptic-scale snowfall forecast.

If you are issuing your first forecast this winter...or you entered the 'season-total' forecast contest...you/ll need to create an account (user name / password / valid e-mail...if you want a copy of your forecast sent to your Inbox).

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Want to be notified via e-mail when the 'Call for Forecast' is issued?
Send requests to 'newx at newx-forecasts dot com'.

Winter '12 / '13 - Interim Standings 4

Under the ‘two-thirds’ rule…forecasters who have entered at least four forecasts are included in this season/s third Interim Standings.

SUMSQ errors for each contest storm are normalized with a 'Z-score'...then averaged...to compute the standings.  Lower (higher) average Z-scores indicate more (less) skillful forecasts.

If a forecaster has participated in more than two-thirds of all contests...then Z-scores from their 'best two-thirds' forecasts are used to calculate Interim and Final standings. More or less the same idea as dropping the lowest quiz score(s) before the final grade is computed.

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Complete table of Interim stats by Forecaster at the Contest/s web site here.
Forecaster summary storm data set here.

Winter '12 / '13 - Storm #6: Final Results

Composite Reflectivity
Mid-afternoon 19-MAR-13

1st - Donald Rosenfeld
SUMSQ:	47.02
SUMSQ Z:	-0.609
STP:	10.90	(6)
TAE:	23.70	(1)
AAE:	0.99	(1)
2nd - iralibov
SUMSQ:	55.26
SUMSQ Z:	-0.537
STP:	8.80	(4)
TAE:	28.50	(3)
AAE:	1.14	(3)
3rd - donsutherland1
SUMSQ:	56.68
SUMSQ Z:	-0.524
STP:	7.30	(1)
TAE:	29.70	(4)
AAE:	1.24	(5)
HM - snowman
SUMSQ:	58.96
SUMSQ Z:	-0.504
STP:	14.40	(8)
TAE:	26.60	(2)
AAE:	1.06	(2)

SUMSQ: sum of square errors

STP: storm-total precipitation error

TAE: total absolute error
AAE: average absolute error
(number):  category rank

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Full forecast verification and summary for Storm #6 here.

Winter '12 / '13 - Storm #6: Preliminary Verification

Preliminary storm-total snowfalls for Monday through Wednesday from CDUS41...CXUS51...and PNS bulletins.

Five new daily records.

TUE....19-MAR-13
CON - 11" (3.9"; 1971)
BTV - 8.9" (2.3"; 1928)
PWM - 8.7" (4.7"; 1971)
BGR - 7.7" (5"; 1987)
ORH - 7.7" (7"; 1956)

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Please report any errors and drop a link to the correct data in Comments.

The Preliminary Verifications are usually posted ~24 hours before the forecasts are verified and final results are posted.  Circumstances prevent me from closing out Contest #6 tomorrow evening; therefore...the verified forecasts and final results will posted late this evening.

The alternative is to wait until Saturday evening.
I would rather NEWxSFC Forecasters not wait that long to find out how well their forecasts verified.

Winter '12 / '13 - Storm #6: The Forecasts

Rookie 2
Intern 1
Journey 1
Senior 9
TOT 13

Forecasts are ranked by STP.
309 station forecasts.

RED - 75th percentile and above
BLUE - 25th percentile and below

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Heavy snow axis from BTV-CAR-BGR-PWM-CON-ORH-BGM-ALB-BTV.

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AO once again in the tank.
NAO with one toe in the water.
PNA MIA.

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Everyone/s station-by-station forecast has been posted on the Contest/s web site.

Winter '12 / '13 - Storm #6: RAW Forecasts

RAW forecasts here.

Winter '12 / '13 - 12th Annual 'Season-Total' Forecast Contest: FEB Totals

FEB/s snowfall totals were smokin'hot with 12 stations above normal.
New monthly record set at BDR.

As of the end of FEB...season-total snowfall to date (D-J-F) over the entire forecast area was 4% above normal.

DEC and JAN monthly totals here.

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GREEN - 75th percentile and above

RED - 25th percentile and below