Winter '15 / '16 - Season-total Snowfall Forecast Contest: DEC Totals

UPDATE:  tele-connection index values
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Monthly station snowfall summary for DEC-15.
Rank ordered by percent of monthly normal.

Green ==> 75th percentile

White ==> Less than 75th and greater than 25th percentile
Red ==> 25th percentile

 

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Teleconnection Indexes

AO:  1.444
NAO:  2.24
PNA:  N/A
PDO:  1.01
QBO:  11.4
MEI:  2.123

Winter '15 / '16 - Snow Storm #1: Call for Forecasts

Powerhouse winter storm setting its sights on the M-A and extreme SNE.  Progs planting a closed-upper LOW along the SE coast suggest a long-duration event as the SFC LOW/s progress slows to a crawl.

No question whether this is a contest-worthy storm.  Couldn't ask for a better mid-latitude cyclone to kick-off the season other than its tardy arrival a week past winter's mid-point.

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Forecast element: storm-total snowfall
Deadline for entries:  10:30 PM EST THU ... 21-JAN-16
Verification begins:  12:01 AM EST FRI ... 22-JAN-16
Verification ends:  when the snow stops falling

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Enter your forecast at the NEWxSFC/s home page here.
Follow the top-of-page link from 'Enter Storm Forecast.

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As always ... there/s no cost ... no fee ... no advertising ... or annoying requests for personal information to enter a forecast.  It's just a fun exercise for winter wx enthusiasts to see who can make the best synoptic-scale snowfall forecast.

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If you are issuing your first forecast this winter ... or you entered the 'season-total' forecast contest ... you/ll need to create an account (user name / password / valid e-mail ... if you want a copy of your forecast sent to your Inbox.

Winter '15 / '16 - Coastal Teaser #3

Decent inter - and intra-run-to-run consistency suggesting this season's first contest-worthy snow storm may be in the offing toward week's end.

Timing the on-set of precipitation remains a moving target.  18-JAN / 00z GFS pointing toward FRI AM over southern portions of the forecast area.

'Call for Forecasts' possible WED evening (20-JAN).

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There have been five previous winters without a contest-worthy storm in DEC ('99-'00, '06-'07, '11-'12, and '14-'15).

The first storms those winters were:
1/20/00
2/14/07
1/21/12
1/26/15

Total snowfall forecasting contests those winters:
'99-'00:  5
'06-'07:  5
'11-'12:  2
'14-'15:  6

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Hang in there forecasters.
All is (probably) not lost.

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NWP image courtesy meteocentre.com

Winter '15 / '16 - Coastal Teaser #2

A little past the halfway point of meteorological winter ... another coastal teaser lurks on the horizon.

Should be noted the ECMWF didn't get the memo.
 

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NWP image courtesy meteocentre.com

Winter '15 / '16 - VCP32: Wish It Would Snow

Winter '15 / '16 - Snowfall Totals (29-DEC-15)

Snowfall totals for the almost contest-worthy event of 29-DEC-15.

PWM  7.0"
BGR  6.9"
CAR  5.3"
BTV  5.1"
CON  4.2"
ORH  1.4"
ALB  1.3"
BDL  1.0"
BOS  0.9"
BDR  0.7"
BGM  0.6"
PVD  0.6"
EWR  T
ISP  T
JFK  T

DEC goes into the books without a contest-worthy storm for the second year in a row.

Three quarters left in the season.
Bring on the pattern change!

Winter '15 / '16 - VCP 32: Appease the Mighty Snow Demons

Winter '15 / '16 - Coastal Teaser #1

Maybe DEC 2015 won't go into the record books as not having a single contest-worthy snow storm.

Progs depict weak cyclogenesis this weekend over southern TX and a track to the NE well west of the Appalachian mountains with half-hearted secondary development off the Delmarva a few days later.

Retreating and weakening Arctic HIGH over SE CN would support a layer a slop along the coast with plowable snows inland.

NWP image courtesy meteocentre.com

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NEWxSFC's historian reports four of 16 DECs without a contest-worthy storm (winters ending:  '00, '07, '12, '15).



Season-total snowfall totals ... P-O-R-N ... and PCT of P-O-R-N
'99 - '00 (unavailable - no season-total contest)
'06 - '07   617" / 926" (67%)
'11 - '12   393" / 934" (42%)
'14 - '15  1,336" / 934" (143%)

Not a good sign but too soon to abandon all hope.

Winter '15 / '16 - Sudden Stratospheric Warming: Watch #1 UPDATE 1

ECMWF continues to signal PV weakening near month's end.

Initial panel (right) @ 80 m/s (155 knot; 179 mph).

D+10  @ 60 m/s (117 knot;134 mph).Also note the weakening +QBO feature INVOF 30 mb.

00 mb D+10 prog (bottom) signals the start of a splitting PV with circulation centers over the Laptev Sea (west of Barents Sea) and extreme northern Canada ... as well as the leading edge of a sharp wave over the Prime Meridian.

Takes a few weeks for a propagating wave to reach 10 mb then work its way to the surface.

Winter '15 / '16 - Sudden Stratospheric Warming: Watch #1

Following a recent cross-hemisphere shift of the polar vortex's (PV) center of circulation from NW Greenland to the Barents Sea ... the first signs of upward propagating wave energy have appeared on the ECMWF/s 13-DEC-15 100 / 70 / 50 mb progs.

The potential for a PV split faces a stiff headwind.  The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) began it westerly phase in JUN and has yet to reach its peak suggesting the PV stays intact.

Of course ... if a SSW comes to fruition ... it takes time for the initial wave to reach 10 mb and then propagate to the surface on average about three weeks later making the 'if and when' of it all wait until late JAN.