Winter '16 / '17 - 16th Annual 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest: FINAL Results

Complete station-by-station forecaster verifications at the Contest/s web site here.

Two perfect forecasts
Donald Rosenfeld 100" @ CAR
Mitchel Volk 15" @ PHL

Near misses
Jessica_wxgirl 0.05" error @ RIC (7.2")
Shillelagh and Jessica_wxgirl 0.1" error @ MDT (23.9")
donsutherland1 0.1" error @ ORH (75.4")
MillVillWx 0.2" error @ ALB (58.3")
kevinmyatt 0.2" error @ NYC (30.2")
weathermbug ... TQ ... and DAROOSTA 0.2" error @ SBY (9.8")
Herb @MAWS and weathermbug 0.2" error @ ORF (5.4")
snowman 0.3" error @ BTV (91.7") and 0.2" error @ EWR (31.4")
Donald Rosenfeld 0.5" error @ BGM (104.5")

Season-total snowfall from all stations (1041") came in 14% above the period-of-record normal (914").  Winter '16 / '17 ranks 6th highest among other Contest years since winter '04 / '05 ... the season when BGR and BGM were added to the station list. 

Winter '16 / '17 - Season-total Snowfall Forecast Contest: Observed Snowfall Station Summary

New England FTW!

 

Winter '16 / '17 - Season-total Snowfall Forecast Contest: MAR totals

Station snowfall summary for MAR-17.
Rank ordered by percent of monthly normal.

Station snowfall summary for Winter '16 / '17 - Season-to-date snowfall through MAR

Green ==> 75th percentile
White ==> 50th percentile
Red ==> 25th percentile
---
Teleconnection indexes and month-over trend (updated as they become available)
AO:  1.365⇧
NAO:  0.74⇩
PDO:  0.74⇧
QBO:  14.35⇩
SOI:  5.1⇧

---
⇩⇧⇔

Winter '16 / '17 - Last Gasp?

Philly

THU and FRI/s snowfall over our northern forecast stations may have been this winter/s last gasp for a contest-worthy snow storm.

Station / NWS mid-range forecast (") / STP (")
ALB / 3.5 / 1.8
BDL / 0 / 1
BTV / 2.5 / 2.5
ORH / 5 / 1.5
BOS / 5 / 0.6
CON / 10 / 5.7
PWM / 5 / 3

Four measly stations (five if you include the upper limit at ALB) were expected to see more than nuisance snowfalls.   In the end ... but one came through.

---
Will keep the window open a little longer for the possibility for one last snow storm.

Over the forecasting contest/s 18 seasons ... there have been five contest snow storms in April ... the last one coming in 2011.  The return period is 4.5 years ... so we're 'overdue' for another.  If not ... the 'Regular' season will end with four snow storms (ranked 15th; top-ranked seasons:  '02 / '03 and '03 / '04 with 10 storms each).

Winter '16 / '17 - Temperature Departure from Normal: Progress Report

UPDATED for MAR anomalies:

  

 

---

Cohen has some ground to make up in the east.

 

Will FEB offer a lifeline?

CFSv2 image courtesy WxAmerica

 

Winter '16 / '17 - Snow Storm #4: NESIS

Rank:  23
NESIS:  5.03
Category:  3
Description:  Major

Large format image here.

---
NOAA has yet to report how many square miles the storm covered and how many millions of people it affected.

Winter '16 / '17 - Interim Standings: 2

Under the ‘two-thirds’ rule … forecasters who have entered at least THREE forecasts are included in the interim standings.

---
Complete interim statistics table and charts at the Contest/s web site here.
Forecaster verification statistics for Winter '16 / '17 contest storms here.

---
SUMSQ errors for each contest snow storm are normalized with a 'Z-score' ... then averaged to compute the standings. If a forecaster has issued forecasts for more than two-thirds of all snow storm contests ... then Z-scores from their 'best two-thirds' forecasts are used to calculate the Interim and Final standings.

Same idea as dropping the lowest quiz score before computing the final grade.

Winter '16 / '17 - Snow Storm #4: FINAL Results

UPDATE:
THX to Forecaster Roger Smith for alerting us to important errors in the STP verification data (forgot in include 13-MAR snowfall - 1D10T error).  Stats and standings have been corrected.

-----------------
Original post 17-MAR-17 @ 10:15 PM EDT
-----------------
Forecaster's station verifications and the storm summary at NEWxSFC/s home page.
http://www.newx-forecasts.com/

	1st - Shillelagh
	SUMSQ:	864
	SUMSQ Z:	-1.627
	STP:	28.9	(5)
	TAE:	86.8	(1)
	AAE:	3.47	(1)
	2nd - WeatherT
	SUMSQ:	1264
	SUMSQ Z:	-1.024
	STP:	45.8	(9)
	TAE:	129.0	(3)
	AAE:	5.16	(3)
	3rd - Brad Yehl
	SUMSQ:	1401
	SUMSQ Z:	-0.816
	STP:	46.3	(10)
	TAE:	133.1	(4)
	AAE:	5.32	(4)
	HM - JessicaCain
	SUMSQ:	1417
	SUMSQ Z:	-0.792
	STP:	49.1	(11)
	TAE:	138.1	(5)
	AAE:	5.53	(6)

 

Winter '16 / '17 - Snow Storm #4: Preliminary Verification

Table of preliminary storm-total snowfalls for TUE and WED from CDUS41 and CXUS51 bulletins.

Exceptions:
HYA
Storm-total snowfall report from PNSBOX.

ORH and BDL
15-MAR/s daily CLI and CF6 bulletins carry 'MM' as daily snowfall at post-time.  Daily snowfall total assessed as 'T' after evaluation of METARs.  Value subject to change pending CDUS41 and CXUS51 bulletin updates.

 SBY and RIC
 METAR reports of PL

---
Stations observed at least:
Trace - 25
4" - 17
6" - 14
8" - 11
10" - 11
12" - 11
15" - 6
18" - 2

Max melt-water at BGM (1.92")
Other stations with > 1" melt-water:
MDT (1.75")
ALB (1.58")
ORH (1.54")
BDL (1.54")
ABE (1.28")
BTV (1.13")
PWM (0.99")

Snow-Liquid Ratios (SLR) for areas with mixed precipitation ... such as ISP and JFK ... are not reported.

---
15 new daily records.
14-MAR-7
BGM - 31.2" (5.9"; 1991)
BTV - 17.8" (10"; 1980)
ALB - 17" (12.9"; 1958)
PWM - 16.3" (10.6"; 1961)
CON - 15.6" (6.6"; 1984)
MDT - 14.7" (8.3"; 1999)
ORH - 14.4" (11.5"; 1958)
ABE - 12.4" (8.4"; 1958)
BDR - 7.1" (3"; 1958)
EWR - 7" (4.6"; 1958)
BOS - 6.6" (3.8"; 1942)
JFK - 5.1" (2.1"; 1999)
IAD - 4.1" (4"; 1999)
ISP - 3.4" (2"; 1999)

15-MAR-17
BTV - 12.6" (4.1"; 1940)

Please report any errors in Comments along with a link to the correct data.
Final results expected NLT FRI evening.

Winter '16 / '17 - Snow Storm #4: The Forecasts

Rookie 1
Intern 0
Journey 0
Senior 13 (includes NWS)
TOT 14

Forecasts are ranked by their storm-total precipitation (STP).

BLUE ==> 25th percentile
RED ==> 75th percentile
White STP cells range between the 25th and 75th percentile.

Heaviest snowfall (>= 15") consensus along and the right of CAR - BGR - PWM - BOS - ISP - ORH - CON - CAR with a closed action center around ABE.  Lollypop expected at ORH.

What's that conventional wisdom about the NAO and NE snowstorms again?

---
Everyone/s station-by-station forecasts posted to NEWxSFC/s web site @ http://www.newx-forecasts.com/

Preliminary snowfall verifications will probably be posted FRI evening as long as significant snowfall doesn't extend into FRI.
FINAL results possibly by SAT evening.