Winter '17 / '18 - 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest: Month of MAX Snowfall

BOS Red Sox Opening Day
14-APR-53

Forecast stations observing their MAX monthly snowfall during Winter '17 / '18 in ...
DEC - 0
JAN - 7 (CAR ... PVD ... ACY ... SBY ... RIC ... ORF ... RDU)
FEB - 0
MAR - 18 (all the rest)

Leaving aside for the moment the fact FEB has 28 days and all other snow-season months have 31 ... 72% of our forecast stations observed their highest monthly snowfall total in MAR -- yes MAR -- this season.

Climo finds most of the contest/s forecast stations (14) observe their MAX monthly snowfall in JAN.  MAX monthly snowfall happens in FEB at 10 of the remaining 11 stations with only BDL having its greatest monthly climo snowfall in DEC.

No station/s monthly snowfall climo reached its maxim in MAR which makes the winter '17 / '18 all the more remarkable.

Winter '17 / '18 - 17th Annual 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest: FINAL Results

UPDATE 2:  10:45 PM EDT ... FRI ... 06-APR-18

All better (I hope)

 

UPDATE:  10:15 PM EDT ... FRI ... 06-APR-18

Senior NEWxSFC forecaster Roger Smith was inadvertently omitted from the FINAL Results summary (operator error - Excel copy down mistake).  Fix in the works

 

 h/t Roger 'Eagle Eye' Smith

 

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 Complete station-by-station forecaster verifications at the Contest/s web site here (direct link)

Perfect forecasts
iralibov @ PVD (47")

Near misses (< 1" error)
Mitchel Volk
0.1" @ ALB (74.9")
0.2" @ PHL (29.8")
0.2" @ ORF (15.2")
0.3" @ CON (85.3")
0.4" @ NYC (35.4")

Any.wx
0.1" @ BDR (39.9")
0.5" @ BTV (81.5")

33andrain
0.1" @ IAD (11.9")
0.6" @ BOS (58.6")

iralibov
0.1" @ RDU (8.9)
0.6" @ BOS (58.6")

kevinmyatt
0.4" @ NYC (35.4")
0.4" @ RIC (12.4")

Brad Yehl
0.2" @ BDL (48.4")

donsutherland1
0.6" @ EWR (34.4")

MarkHofmann
0.8" @ DCA (7.8")

Smallest station forecast error yet percent error >= 10%
Mitchel Volk
11.1" @ PWM (91.1")
2.2" @ SBY (17.2")

TQ
11.1" @ PWM (91.1")

Any.Wx
11.1" @ PWM (91.1")

donsutherland1
16.5" @ BGR (109")

33andrain
8.9" @ ORH (88.9")

iralibov
10.2" @ ACY (34.2")

Roger Smith
2.2" @ SBY (17.2")

snocat918
1.6" @ BWI (15.4")

MarkHofmann
0.8" @ DCA (7.8")

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Season-total snowfall from all stations (1,234") came in 35% above the period-of-record normal (914").  Winter '17 / '18 ranks 4th among other Contest years since winter '04 / '05 ... the season when BGR and BGM were added to the station list.

Winter '17 / '18 - 17th Annual Season-total Snowfall Forecast Contest: Observed Snowfall Station Summary

Bonus snows for 84% of forecast stations.

 

RED: <= 25th percentile
WHITE: > 25th and < 75th percentile
GREEN: >= 75th percentile

Winter '17 / '18 monthly snow totals
DEC:  http://newxsfc.blogspot.com/2018/01/winter-17-18-season-total-snowfall.html
JAN:  http://newxsfc.blogspot.com/2018/02/winter-17-18-season-total-snowfall.html
FEB:  http://newxsfc.blogspot.com/2018/03/winter-17-18-season-total-snowfall.html
MAR:  http://newxsfc.blogspot.com/2018/04/winter-17-18-season-total-snowfall.html

Winter '17 / '18 - Coastal Teaser #4

UPDATE 2:  9 AM EDT FRI ... 06-APR-18
Not happenin'

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UPDATE:  7:30 PM EDT THU ... 05-APR-18
Not lookin'good.
Maybe a nice surprise lurks in the overnight runs.

Possible 'Call for Forecasts' in the AM.

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Snow Storm #9?

Should the present NWP trend continue ...
Call for Forecasts:  THU ... 05-APR-18
Deadline for entries:  10:30 PM EDT ... FRI ... 06-APR-18
Verification period:  12:01 AM EST ... SAT ... 07-APR-18 till TBD

Watch this space.

Winter '17 / '18 - Season-total Snowfall Forecast Contest: MAR totals

Station snowfall summary for MAR-18.
Rank ordered by percent of monthly normal.

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Green ==> 75th - 100th percentile
White ==> Less than 75th and greater than 25th percentile
Red ==> 0 - 25th percentile

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Teleconnection indexes and month-over trend (updated as they become available)
AO:  -0.941⇩
NAO:  -0.93⇩
PDO:  -0.05⇩
QBO:  -19.77⇩
SOI:  10.5⇧

Winter '17 / '18 - Snow Storm #7: NESIS

CAT 2
NESIS 3.15

Winter '17 / '18 - Coastal Teaser: #3

UPDATE:
SAT ... 31-MAR-18 @ 10 PM EDT

Nothing contest-worthy about this event ATTM.

Slightest chance the 00z ... 01-APR-18 NWP runs will suggest otherwise ==> possible SUN AM  'Call for Forecasts'.

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Snow Storm #9?

Should the present NWP trend continue ...
Call for Forecasts:  SAT ... 31-MAR-18
Deadline for entries:  10:30 PM EDT ... SUN ... 01-APR-18
Verification period:  12:01 AM EST ... MON ... 02-APR-18 till TBD

Watch this space.

Winter '17 / '18 - Regular Season Interim Standings: 6

Under the ‘two-thirds’ rule … forecasters who have entered at least SIX forecasts are included in interim standings #6.

Complete interim statistics table and chart at the Contest/s web site here (direct link)
Forecaster statistics for Winter '17 / '18 contest snow storms here (direct link)

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SUMSQ errors for each contest snow storm are normalized (standardized) with a 'Z-score' ... then averaged to compute the standings. If a forecaster has issued forecasts for more than two-thirds of all snow storm contests ... then Z-scores from their 'best two-thirds' forecasts are used to calculate the Interim and Final standings.

Similar idea as dropping the lowest quiz score before computing the final grade.

Winter '17 / '18 - Snow Storm #8: FINAL Results

Forecasters' station verifications and the storm summary at NEWxSFC/s home page.
http://www.newx-forecasts.com/

	1st - Brad Yehl
	SUMSQ:	278
	SUMSQ Z:	-1.279
	STP:	28.9	(3)
	TAE:	65.1	(1)
	AAE:	2.50	(1)
	2nd - Shillelagh
	SUMSQ:	380
	SUMSQ Z:	-0.845
	STP:	43.4	(5)
	TAE:	73.7	(2)
	AAE:	2.95	(2)
	3rd - donsutherland1
	SUMSQ:	483
	SUMSQ Z:	-0.408
	STP:	64.9	(9)
	TAE:	90.3	(5)
	AAE:	3.34	(4)
	HM - iralibov
	SUMSQ:	489
	SUMSQ Z:	-0.383
	STP:	60.1	(7)
	TAE:	87.3	(3)
	AAE:	3.23	(3)

SUMSQ:  sum of square error (")
SUMSQ Z:  Z-score
STP:  storm total precipitation error (")
TAE:  total absolute error (")
AAE:  average absolute error (")
(#):  category rank

Forecast by Observed Snowfall Scatterplots for Top Forecasts
Dotted blue line below (above) solid red line ==> under (over) forecast

Station by Station Comparison of Top Forecasters

Winter '17 / '18 - Snow Storm #8: Preliminary STP Verifications

Table of preliminary storm-total snowfall by station for WED and THU from CDUS41 (CLI) ... CXUS51 (CF6) and ... SAUS41 (METAR) bulletins.

Exceptions:  none

SLR not available for some stations reporting measureable snowfall b/c liquid and / or freezing precipitation also occurred during the verification period.

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Stations observing at least Trace - 24 (89%) [corrected]

Given a forecast station observed measurable snowfall ...
Stations observing at least:
4" - 10 (42%)
8" - 5 (21%)
12" - 2 (8%)
16" - 1 (4)

Melt-water
ISP - 1.28"
MDT - 1.13"
PHL - 1.03"
JFK - 0.91"

Max precipitation:  ISP - 1.28"

New daily records:
21-MAR-18 (7)
ISP - 14" (1.8"; 2013)
ABE - 13.2" (4.3"; 1964)
MDT - 11.9" (7.5"; 1964)
JFK - 8.4" (0.8"; 1993)
EWR - 7.9" (5.3"; 1958)
PHL - 6.7" (4.7"; 1932)
IAD - 4.8" (2.3"; 1964)

22-MAR-18 (1)
ISP - 4.4" (3"; 1992)

SFC analysis:  03z ... 22-MAR-18

METAR KISP 220256Z 01017G28KT 1/8SM R06/2000V3000FT +SN FG VV003 00/00 A2964 RMK
AO2 PK WND 03033/0231 SLP036 ==> SNINCR 5/12 <== P0023 60040 T00000000 51001 =

5" / hour!

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Please report errors in Comments along with a link to the correct data.
FINAL Results post expected SAT evening ... 24-MAR-18