CONTEST STATUS - Updated: WED ... 13-DEC-17 @ 8:30 PM EST

Winter '17 / '18 - Snowfall Forecast Contests
19th Annual 'Regular Season'
Snow Storm #1
Synoptiscope in VCP32

17th Annual 'Season-total'
Deadline for entries has passed
Forecasters' summary here

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Winter '16 / '17 - Snowfall Forecast Contests
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18th Annual 'Regular Season'
FINAL results here
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16th Annual 'Season-total'
FINAL results here

Wednesday, November 28, 2012

Winter '12/ '13 - Arctic Oscillation - Is November A Leading Indicator?

UPDATE (14-DEC-14)
Winter '12 / '13 AO:  -1.222

UPDATE (04-DEC-12)
NOV/s AO:   -0.111.
Probability the average AO is negative for meteorological winter '12 / '13:  76%

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Little doubt NOV/s index will come in negative despite an early 15-day run of above zero values.

A 2x2 contingency table of NOV/s AO index and winter/s average (D-J-F) index suggests there/s a strong association between the two when NOV/s AO is < 0.



When NOV/s AO is < 0...there/s a 76% chance the winter/s average AO will also be negative.  The table's precision is 63%...where precision is the proportion of negative cases predicted correctly [a / (a + c)].

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