CONTEST STATUS - Last update: FRI ... 14-JUL-17 @ 8:30 PM EDT

Winter '17 / '18 - Snowfall Forecast Contests
19th Annual 'Regular Season'
Season starts when the first flakes start a'flyin'

---
17th Annual 'Season-total'
Entries accepted between 01-NOV-17 and 30-NOV-17
Verification period: 01-DEC-17 through 31-MAR-18

----------------------------------------------------
Winter '16 / '17 - Snowfall Forecast Contests
----------------------------------------------------
18th Annual 'Regular Season'
FINAL results here
---
16th Annual 'Season-total'
FINAL results here

Wednesday, November 28, 2012

Winter '12/ '13 - Arctic Oscillation - Is November A Leading Indicator?

UPDATE (14-DEC-14)
Winter '12 / '13 AO:  -1.222

UPDATE (04-DEC-12)
NOV/s AO:   -0.111.
Probability the average AO is negative for meteorological winter '12 / '13:  76%

---
Little doubt NOV/s index will come in negative despite an early 15-day run of above zero values.

A 2x2 contingency table of NOV/s AO index and winter/s average (D-J-F) index suggests there/s a strong association between the two when NOV/s AO is < 0.



When NOV/s AO is < 0...there/s a 76% chance the winter/s average AO will also be negative.  The table's precision is 63%...where precision is the proportion of negative cases predicted correctly [a / (a + c)].

No comments: