CONTEST STATUS - Updated: SAT ... 14-APR-18 @ 9 PM EDT

Winter '17 / '18 - Snowfall Forecast Contests

19th Annual 'Regular Season' Snowfall Forecast Contest
- FINAL Results here
1st Place: Brad Yehl
2nd Place: Don Sutherland
3rd Place: NWS ER WFOs
HM: Herb @MAWS

17th Annual 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest
- FINAL Results here
1st Place: Don Sutherland
2nd Place: Mitchel Volk
3rd Place: Brad Yehl
HM: TQ
Climo: 5th place

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Winter '16 / '17 - Snowfall Forecast Contests
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18th Annual 'Regular Season'
FINAL results here

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16th Annual 'Season-total'
FINAL results here

Tuesday, November 13, 2012

Winter '12 / '13 - North Atlantic Oscillation: Analogs



Analog years selected based on the smallest sum of square errors between current year/s monthly NAO index and historical values since 1950.

It's notable how every analog becomes positive to ever-so-slightly negative during the coming winter. 

ENSO (MEI):
1998 - moderate la Nina.
1993 - warm la Nada after a moderate el Nino
2008 - weak la Nina
2003 - warm la Nada
2004 - weak el Nino

Best match:  2003

PDO:
1998 - weak negative
1993 - moderate positive
2008 - moderate negative
2003 - weak positive
2004 - weak positive

Best match:  2008

QBO:
1998 - weakening easterlies, flip to westerlies in JAN
1993 - strengthening easterlies
2008 - mid-cycle westerlies
2003 - weakening easterlies, flip to westerlies in FEB
2004 - weakening westerlies, flip to easterlies in JAN

Best match:  1998; 2003

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Season-total snowfall at NEWxSFC Contest stations during Winter '03 / '04 totaled 999"...8" above period-of-record normal.

Next up:  period-of-record trend analysis and the correlation between the northern annular oscillation phase (NAO and the Arctic Oscillation) and sunspots.  Spoiler alert:  not lookin'good.

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