Period of record median: 9,599,610 km²
October-12: 11,106,205 km²
October-12 Eurasia snow cover...as reported by Rutgers Snow Lab...is 16% above normal. This bodes well for a cold and snowy winter in the eastern US...according to the statistically significant correlation between these global two features discovered by AER's Dr. Judah Cohen.
...Eurasian snow cover during this year’s October has increased far more rapidly than...is normally the case (the corresponding index value exceeds two-standard deviations).Eurasia OCT snow cover : season-total snowfall (D-J-F-M) at NE and MA Contest stations in recent winters...
Given the large anomaly for the predictor variable, the following winter will be a good test for assessing if the approach is suitable for real-time seasonal forecasts.1
'09 / '10: 11,288,371 km² - 1,225" (observed*) v. 908" (normal*)
'10 / '11: 10,615,933 km² - 1,426" (observed) v. 921" (normal)
'11 / '12: 9,293,740 km² - 393" (observed) v. 934" (normal)
* SBY removed for lack of station snowfall data.
Blue dotted - observed snow cover
Red - 9-point binomial filter
Orange - period of record median snow cover
Yellow dashed - one standard deviation
The 9-point binomial fiter shows the long-term trend by removing noise from the signal.
- A new index for more accurate winter predictions (pdf)
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 38, L21701