CONTEST STATUS - Last update: THU ... 20-APR-17 @ 9:40 PM EDT

Winter '17 / '18 - Snowfall Forecast Contests

19th Annual 'Regular Season'

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17th Annual 'Season-total'

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Winter '16 / '17 - Snowfall Forecast Contests
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18th Annual 'Regular Season'
FINAL results here
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16th Annual 'Season-total'
FINAL results here

Tuesday, November 6, 2012

Winter '12 / '13 - Eurasia Snow Cover - October

Period of record median:  9,599,610 km²
October-12:  11,106,205 km²

October-12 Eurasia snow cover...as reported by Rutgers Snow Lab...is 16% above normal.  This bodes well for a cold and snowy winter in the eastern US...according to the statistically significant correlation between these global two features discovered by AER's Dr. Judah Cohen.

...Eurasian snow cover during this year’s October has increased far more rapidly than...is normally the case (the corresponding index value exceeds two-standard deviations).

Given the large anomaly for the predictor variable, the following winter will be a good test for assessing if the approach is suitable for real-time seasonal forecasts.1
Eurasia OCT snow cover : season-total snowfall (D-J-F-M) at NE and MA Contest stations in recent winters...
'09 / '10:  11,288,371 km² - 1,225" (observed*) v. 908" (normal*)
'10 / '11:  10,615,933 km² - 1,426" (observed) v. 921" (normal)
'11 / '12:  9,293,740 km² - 393" (observed) v. 934" (normal)

* SBY removed for lack of station snowfall data.



Blue dotted - observed snow cover
Red - 9-point binomial filter
Orange - period of record median snow cover
Yellow dashed - one standard deviation

The 9-point binomial fiter shows the long-term trend by removing noise from the signal.



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Reading room...
- A new index for more accurate winter predictions (pdf)
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 38, L21701

- Eurasian Snow Cover Variability and Links with Stratosphere-Troposphere
Coupling and Their Potential Use in Seasonal to Decadal Climate Predictions (pdf)
Climate Test Bed Joint Seminar Series
NCEP, Camp Springs, Maryland, 22 June 2011

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