CONTEST STATUS - Updated: SAT ... 14-APR-18 @ 9 PM EDT

Winter '17 / '18 - Snowfall Forecast Contests

19th Annual 'Regular Season' Snowfall Forecast Contest
- FINAL Results here
1st Place: Brad Yehl
2nd Place: Don Sutherland
3rd Place: NWS ER WFOs
HM: Herb @MAWS

17th Annual 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest
- FINAL Results here
1st Place: Don Sutherland
2nd Place: Mitchel Volk
3rd Place: Brad Yehl
HM: TQ
Climo: 5th place

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Winter '16 / '17 - Snowfall Forecast Contests
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18th Annual 'Regular Season'
FINAL results here

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16th Annual 'Season-total'
FINAL results here

Thursday, December 11, 2014

Winter '14 / '15 - November/s AO Predicts The State Of Winter/s AO

Does the sign of NOV/s Arctic Oscillation index (AO) of -0.530 have any predictive power for the sign of this winter/s AO?

The 2x2 contingency table below suggests it does.

At the 95% confidence level ... the Chi-square 'Test of Independence' shows the negative sign of NOV/s AO and the AO sign for D-J-F are not independent but are related.  There/s a 4.8% probability the test indicates falsely they are not related.

Over the AO/s 64 year period-of-record ... the data shows when NOV is negative ... the winter/s AO will be also negative.

There/s also a statistically significant relationship between the negative sign of NOV/s AO and the sign of DEC/s AO.

 AO Contingency
p = 0.046
Nov +
Nov -
Total
D-J-F +
26
15
41
D-J-F -
10
16
26
Total
36
31
67
True +
63%
62%
True -
False +
37%
38%
False -

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