CONTEST STATUS - Updated: FRI ... 14-JUL-17 @ 8:30 PM EDT

Winter '17 / '18 - Snowfall Forecast Contests
19th Annual 'Regular Season'
Season starts when the first flakes start a'flyin'

17th Annual 'Season-total'
Entries accepted between 01-NOV-17 and 30-NOV-17
Verification period: 01-DEC-17 through 31-MAR-18

Winter '16 / '17 - Snowfall Forecast Contests
18th Annual 'Regular Season'
FINAL results here
16th Annual 'Season-total'
FINAL results here

Thursday, December 11, 2014

Winter '14 / '15 - November/s AO Predicts The State Of Winter/s AO

Does the sign of NOV/s Arctic Oscillation index (AO) of -0.530 have any predictive power for the sign of this winter/s AO?

The 2x2 contingency table below suggests it does.

At the 95% confidence level ... the Chi-square 'Test of Independence' shows the negative sign of NOV/s AO and the AO sign for D-J-F are not independent but are related.  There/s a 2.8% probability the test indicates falsely they are not related.

Over the AO/s 64 year period-of-record ... the data shows when NOV is negative ... the winter/s AO will be also negative.

There/s also a statistically significant relationship between the negative sign of NOV/s AO and the sign of DEC/s AO.

 AO Contingency
p = 0.028
D-J-F -
D-J-F +
Nov -26834
Nov +151530
True -76%50%True +
False -50%24%False +

No comments: