CONTEST STATUS - Updated: SAT ... 14-APR-18 @ 9 PM EDT

Winter '17 / '18 - Snowfall Forecast Contests

19th Annual 'Regular Season' Snowfall Forecast Contest
- FINAL Results here
1st Place: Brad Yehl
2nd Place: Don Sutherland
3rd Place: NWS ER WFOs
HM: Herb @MAWS

17th Annual 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest
- FINAL Results here
1st Place: Don Sutherland
2nd Place: Mitchel Volk
3rd Place: Brad Yehl
Climo: 5th place

Winter '16 / '17 - Snowfall Forecast Contests
18th Annual 'Regular Season'
FINAL results here

16th Annual 'Season-total'
FINAL results here

Sunday, November 5, 2017

Winter '17 / '18 - Eurasia Snow Cover - OCT - Snow Advance Index (SAI)

OCT-17's snow advance index is negative.
Snow Crow suicide watch now in effect.

AER reports a statistically significant correlation between their 'winter severity index' and how quickly Eurasian snow cover advances during OCT.

They define the 'winter severity index' by the state of the North Atlantic Oscillation / Arctic Oscillation (N/AO) and interpret it as an indicator of 'high latitude' blocking potential during D-J-F.

More blocking.
More winter.
More better.

Here's the model ...
"When snow cover advances rapidly (slowly) across Eurasia in October, this is an indication that the upcoming winter will be more severe (milder) for the Eastern US [sic], Europe and East Asia.

Study period seems surprisingly short seeing how contiguous monthly Eurasian snow cover data begins in 1970.  How well does the SAI correlate with the N/AO index prior to 1988?

Snow Advance Index (SAI) backgrounder from AER here.
Earlier Eurasia snow cover posts here.

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