Winter '17 / '18 - Snow Storm #7: The Forecasts!

UPDATE:  17-MAR-18 @ 12:40 PM EDT
Corrected 'Consensus Forecasts and Extremes' chart.

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Rookie   -
Intern   1
Journey  -
Senior   8
GOVT    1
PWSP    -
TOT  10

All forecasts posted to the Contest/s web site. (direct link)

Forecasts ranked by their verification period storm-total precipitation (STP).
BLUE = 25th percentile
RED >= 75th percentile
White STP and 4cast cells range between the 25th and 75th percentile

NWS ER WFOs (GOVT) forecasts derived from public issuances current at the deadline.

Heaviest snowfall (>= 12") consensus along and to the right of CAR - BGR - PWM - BOS - PVD - ORH - PWM - CAR.  Snow cone expected at BGR.

AO FTW! (again).

Winter '17 / '18 - Snow Storm #7: RAW FORECASTS

Here

Winter '17 / '18 - Snow Storm #6: FINAL Results

Forecasters' station verifications and the storm summary at NEWxSFC/s home page.
http://www.newx-forecasts.com/

	1st - Donald Rosenfeld
	SUMSQ:	200
	SUMSQ Z:	-1.171
	STP:	16.1	(8)
	TAE:	53.2	(1)
	AAE:	2.22	(1)
	2nd - Herb @MAWS
	SUMSQ:	220
	SUMSQ Z:	-1.005
	STP:	4.7	(4)
	TAE:	53.3	(2)
	AAE:	2.32	(3)
	3rd - NWS ER WFOs
	SUMSQ:	249
	SUMSQ Z:	-0.772
	STP:	11.1	(6)
	TAE:	56.4	(3)
	AAE:	2.45	(5)
	HM - Roger Smith
	SUMSQ:	253
	SUMSQ Z:	-0.745
	STP:	22.9	(10)
	TAE:	58.4	(5)
	AAE:	2.24	(2)

SUMSQ:  sum of square errors (")
SUMSQ Z:  Z-score
STP:  storm total precipitation error (")
TAE:  total absolute error (")
AAE:  average absolute error (")
(#):  category rank

Forecast by Observed Snowfall Scatterplots for Top Forecasts
Dotted blue line below (above) solid red line ==> under (over) forecast

Snowfall analysis courtesy National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center
http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/interactive/html/map.html

Winter '17 / '18 - Snow Storm #7: Call for Forecasts!

UPDATE:  3:30 PM EDT SUN ... 11-MAR-18
Deadline: 10:30 PM EDT SUN ... 11-MAR-18 (as advertised)

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Meh.  Our fortunes have faded with each model run.
Consider this 'Call for Forecasts' a marker just in case the storm develops into something contest-worthy.

13-MAR-1888

The deadline for entries could slip to MON evening if the main event appears more likely to affect northern forecast stations beginning TUE rather than those in the south on MON.  Watch this space.

The forecast contest for Snow Storm #7 may be cancelled prior to the deadline if fewer than six stations are likely to observe at least a 4" snowfall.

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Forecast element:  each station's verification period snowfall

Deadline for entries:  10:30 PM EDT ... SUN ... 11-MAR-18
Verification period begins:  12:01 AM EDT ... MON ... 12-MAR-18
Verification period ends:  when snow associated with the primary storm ends

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Enter your forecast at the NEWxSFC/s home page here.  http://www.newx-forecasts.com/
Follow the top-of-page link from 'Enter Storm Forecast.

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As always ... there/s no cost ... no fee ... no advertising ... or annoying requests for personal information to enter a forecast.  It's just a fun exercise for winter wx enthusiasts to see who can make the best synoptic-scale snowfall forecast.  See how well your forecast stacks up against NWS Eastern Region Weather Forecast Offices.

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If you are issuing your first forecast this winter ... or you entered the 'season-total' forecast contest ... you/ll need to create an account (user name / password / valid e-mail ... if you want a copy of your forecast sent to your Inbox).

NEWxSFC/s email client is permanently off-line.
Forecasters will no longer have a copy of their forecast emailed to them.
Apologies for the degraded service which is beyond my control.

Winter '17 / '18 - Snow Storm #6: Preliminary STP Verifications

Table of preliminary storm-total snowfall by station for WED through FRI from CDUS41 (CLI) ... CXUS51 (CF6) and ... SAUS41 (METAR) bulletins.

Exceptions:
HYA
METARs indicate Trace amount

SLR not available for some stations reporting measureable snowfall b/c liquid and / or freezing precipitation also occurred during the verification period.

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Stations observing at least:
Trace - 23 (85%)
4" - 13 (57%)
8" - 8 (35%)
12" - 3 (13%)
16" - 1 (4%)

Melt-water
PWM - 1.38"
ORH - 0.99"
PWM - 0.98"

Max precipitation:  ACY - 2.11"

New daily records:  5
ISP - 6.5" (2"; 2013)
PHL - 6" (4"; 1969)
BDR - 6" (1.2"; 1969)
EWR - 4.6" (2.3"; 1969)
JFK - 2.8" (1.7"; 1969)

GOES-16 VIS - Band 02:  21z ... 07-MAR-18

   
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Please report errors in Comments along with a link to the correct data.
FINAL Results post expected SUN evening ... 11-MAR-18

Winter '17 / '18 - Season-total Snowfall Forecast Contest: FEB totals

Station snowfall summary for FEB-18.
Rank ordered by percent of monthly normal.

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Green ==> 75th - 100th percentile
White ==> Less than 75th and greater than 25th percentile
Red ==> 0 - 25th percentile

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Teleconnection indexes and month-over trend (updated as they become available)
AO:  0.113⇧
NAO:  1.58⇧
PDO:  0.37⇩
QBO:  -18.36⇧
SOI:  -6.0⇩

Winter '17 / '18 - Snow Storm #6: The Forecasts!

Rookie   -
Intern   1
Journey  -
Senior   9
GOVT    1
PWSP    1
TOT  12

All forecasts posted to the Contest/s web site. (direct link)

Forecasts ranked by their verification period storm-total precipitation (STP).
BLUE = 25th percentile
RED >= 75th percentile
White STP and 4cast cells range between the 25th and 75th percentile

NWS ER WFOs (GOVT) and PWSP (Private Weather Service Provider) forecasts derived from public issuances current at the deadline.

Heaviest snowfall (>= 10") consensus along and to the right of BGR - PWM - CON - ORH - ABE - ALB - BGR.  Snow cones expected at ALB and CON.

AO regime change FTW!

Winter '17 / '18 - Snow Storm #6: RAW FORECASTS

Here

Winter '17 / '18 - Temperature Departure From Normal: Progress Report - February

Winter '17 / '18 - Snow Storm #6: Call for Forecasts!

Boston Commons
MAR-1933

Miller B cyclogenesis off the Carolina coast at the start of the forecast period expected to saunter leisurely up the coast and deepen through FRI.  Marginal vertical temperature profiles near the coast will make for a challenging forecast.

NWP suggests additional accumulations may be observed over extreme northern stations after the verification period ends; however ... amounts should be relatively minor.

The forecast contest for Snow Storm #6 may be cancelled prior to the deadline if fewer than six stations are likely to observe at least a 4" snowfall.

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Forecast element:  each station's verification period snowfall

Deadline for entries:  10:30 PM EST ... TUE ... 06-MAR-18
Verification period begins:  12:01 AM EST ... WED ... 07-MAR-18
Verification period ends:  11:59 PM EST ... FRI ... 09-MAR-18

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Enter your forecast at the NEWxSFC/s home page here.  http://www.newx-forecasts.com/
Follow the top-of-page link from 'Enter Storm Forecast.

---
As always ... there/s no cost ... no fee ... no advertising ... or annoying requests for personal information to enter a forecast.  It's just a fun exercise for winter wx enthusiasts to see who can make the best synoptic-scale snowfall forecast.  See how well your forecast stacks up against NWS Eastern Region Weather Forecast Offices.

---
If you are issuing your first forecast this winter ... or you entered the 'season-total' forecast contest ... you/ll need to create an account (user name / password / valid e-mail ... if you want a copy of your forecast sent to your Inbox).

NEWxSFC/s email client has been off-line going on two weeks with no estimated return-to-service date
which means in all likelihood ... forecasters will not have a copy of their forecast emailed to them.  Apologies for the inconvenience.